Offseason Checklist: Pittsburgh Penguins

The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those eliminated in the first round.  Accordingly, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Pittsburgh.

The Penguins missed the playoffs for the third straight year, and the team has pivoted from being a perennial playoff participant to a below-average squad with an old and expensive roster. The question in Pittsburgh has now become, are they in a rebuild or a retool? General manager Kyle Dubas spoke about wanting to get back into contention quickly earlier in the year, but has spoken more recently about finding sustained success. Still, the Penguins’ recent split with head coach Mike Sullivan suggests that they may not be planning to compete anytime soon. Josh Yohe of The Athletic has speculated that the Penguins will try to make a big splash in the summer of 2026, which means this upcoming season could be rough in the Steel City. The Penguins hired Dubas nearly two years ago. They paid him very handsomely to navigate a complicated situation in Pittsburgh, and this could be the summer when Dubas has to earn his hazard pay. The Penguins are about to enter what can best be described as a transitional summer as they continue to shed older, more expensive players in favor of younger, controllable ones who will be part of the franchise’s future.

Hire A New Head Coach

Sullivan coached the Penguins for nearly a decade and is the most successful coach in franchise history. His presence always gave the Penguins a confident swagger, even when they shouldn’t have had one. While Sullivan didn’t have much success in recent years, they probably overachieved given the poor roster construction and inconsistent goaltending.

Now, with Sullivan in New York, Pittsburgh must pivot and hire a coach for a job that is as undesirable as an NHL coaching job can be. The Penguins aren’t close to competing, and don’t have any truly upper-echelon prospects that will be gracing the ice at PPG Paints Arena anytime soon. However, the Penguins remain a prestigious franchise and still boast one of the game’s greatest players in Sidney Crosby.

Whoever is the Penguins’ next coach will likely be the last head coach of Crosby’s career and will need to be okay with taking on a team that will underwhelm next season. This could force the Penguins to look outside the regular NHL coaching carousel, which might be a positive, given the rate at which NHL coaches are recycled. Pittsburgh will probably be looking for a coach who preaches defense first, which would be a significant pivot for a franchise that has made offensive firepower its calling card. But the Penguins barely have any outside their top line (Crosby, Bryan Rust, and Rickard Rakell), and their top prospects won’t exactly fill the scoresheet.

If the Penguins can find a head coach who can scheme a solid defensive structure and Pittsburgh can get some goaltending, they could surprise people next season. But even then, it’s hard to imagine them being anything more than a middle-of-the-pack team.

Trade Erik Karlsson

The Erik Karlsson experiment has been a trip. It was worth trying, and Dubas did well to acquire the three-time Norris Trophy winner using multiple veterans on bad contracts and several premium draft picks. The first-round pick they traded for Karlsson is a loss that stings, but the move made sense at the time, as the Penguins were hopeful that their veteran group had one more run in them, and the belief was that Karlsson could elevate the older stars. But it didn’t work out that way, and Karlsson has been just okay offensively, and downright dreadful defensively. Karlsson was never a master class in defense, but this past season, his shortcomings were undeniable, so much so that Kyle Dubas had some harsh words about Karlsson’s game at the end of the season (as per Pittsburgh Hockey Now).

Karlsson isn’t impossible to move, but the last time he was available two years ago, he was two years younger and coming off a 100-point Norris Trophy-winning season. He’s older, slower, and has significantly less trade value this time. The Penguins might have to take a bath on this one if they want to move on from the soon-to-be 35-year-old. The other issue they will face is that Karlsson controls his fate through a no-movement clause.

While it will undoubtedly be more challenging to trade Karlsson this year from a performance perspective, it should be easier to facilitate contractually. Karlsson has two years left on his deal with a $10MM cap hit thanks to $1.5MM of retention by the Sharks. Karlsson has $16.5MM left on his contract in hard cash, but after his bonus for next season is paid out on July 1, he will be owed just $11.5MM in absolute dollars for the final two seasons. That could interest a team more concerned with actual dollars than cap space, such as one of Karlsson’s previous teams, the Ottawa Senators.

So, what kind of trade can Penguins fans expect? It’ll be something similar to what he was traded for previously, minus a first-round pick. There won’t be many teams willing or able to take on Karlsson’s full cap hit, so the Penguins will either need to retain a significant portion of Karlsson’s salary for the next two seasons or take back another team’s undesirables to allow the money to match.

Suppose the Penguins opt to retain significant money. In that case, they will allow themselves the best potential return, as teams would probably line up if Karlsson’s cap hit were reduced to something closer to half of the $10MM he is currently costing. It’s hard to speculate what that kind of return would be, but it would probably not be insignificant given that Karlsson can still put up points and play in a team’s top four.

Now, if the Penguins opt for the route where they retain no money or very little, it will require them to take back contracts of underperforming players. There wouldn’t be much of a market for this type of trade, but Detroit would certainly have interest, and they have several players on low-value contracts and would be happy to ship them out to bring in Karlsson.

In any event, Karlsson is among several Penguins players who need fresh starts, and he is the most impactful Pittsburgh player who could be on the trading block.

Acquire Younger Roster Players

Many people panned the Jake Guentzel trade in March of 2024, as Dubas elected to go for quantity over quality regarding the Penguins’ best trade chip. Guentzel was dealt to Carolina for forward prospects Vasily Ponomarev and Ville Koivunen, Cruz Lucius, a conditional first-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft and a conditional fifth-round pick in the 2024 draft. Now, the first-round pick ended up falling back to a second pick, and Dubas was heavily criticized for not obtaining a first-round pick, but the trade has been a massive win for the Penguins just a year later. Pittsburgh drafted defenseman Harrison Brunicke with the second-round pick, and he appears to be developing into a long-term fixture in the Penguins’ top four. Koivunen looks like he will start next season in the top six for the Penguins, and Ponomarev may be playing on the third line.

Now that Dubas has started building some depth in the Penguins’ pipeline, they must find higher-end young players to lead their newly acquired prospects. Pittsburgh has a handful of nice forward prospects, but they do not have any high-end prospects they can build around. Those players are the most difficult to acquire, but that is the project that Dubas will need to figure out to get the Penguins back into contention.

The Penguins have a couple of solid veterans on value contracts that they could flip out for picks and prospects, but with so many draft picks in the subsequent three drafts, Pittsburgh might be best served to try to move those players out for young NHL roster players. It’s easier said than done, though, as teams are more forward-thinking these days and better understand the importance of young controllable roster players in a salary cap league.

Dubas might not be able to accomplish this goal without some draft lottery luck next year. Still, he he’ll have plenty of draft picks over the coming years to try and catch some value in the Entry Draft, or use those picks to make trades to a team that is up against the salary cap and has to move out an RFA who has priced himself out of a cap strapped organization.

Move Out Rickard Rakell

Rakell had a career year playing alongside Crosby on the Penguins’ top line, posting 35 goals and 35 assists in 81 games. For Rakell, it was the third time he had topped 30 goals and the first time since 2017-18. Rakell can play, there is no doubt about that, but he is just a year removed from arguably the worst season of his career and at 32 years of age, his value isn’t going to be higher. Rakell will likely be 33-35 years old by the time the Penguins are set to contend, and while trading him might upset Crosby, Rakell isn’t helping this team when they are ready to win unless he is traded for future help.

Dubas talked about the need to maintain a winning culture in Pittsburgh, but to be perfectly honest, the Penguins haven’t had a winning culture since Rakell arrived, missing the playoffs in three of the four years he has been there. So, moving on from him isn’t exactly going to wipe the slate clean, as Rakell was never in Pittsburgh when the Penguins were contenders. The best course of action with Rakell is to move him this summer and add to the prospect pool to turn things around quickly.

Rakell has three years left on his contract at $5MM annually and should be able to fetch the Penguins a first-round pick, if not more.

He will not be the easiest player to trade, but with an increasing salary cap and teams always desperate for offence, Rakell could be a solid depth addition for a team that views itself as a Stanley Cup contender. He has a modified eight-team no-trade clause, which shouldn’t be prohibitive but might block the Penguins from trading to some potentially interested parties, depending on how strategic Rakell plans to be with his contractual right.

Some folks might make a case for trading veteran forward Rust, and there is an excellent case for it, given his play last season. But, if the Penguins do genuinely care about maintaining a winning culture, Rust is one of a handful of remaining carryovers from the Penguins’ Stanley Cup Championships in 2016 & 2017 and has a deep connection with Crosby and the Penguins organization. Many people make the case that Rust should be the next captain of the Penguins, but given Crosby’s play in his late 30s, Rust and Crosby may retire simultaneously.

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images