Examining The Lowest-Value Contracts In The NHL

In about a month, NHL teams will enter a free agency period with extra money to play with, thanks to an increased salary cap. While teams will welcome the additional financial wiggle room, general managers will make more mistakes on July 1st than on any other day of the year, and the likelihood of regrettable contracts getting dished out is high. Teams that feel close to Stanley Cup contention will happily roll the dice and hope that the contracts they sign work out, but that is often not the case, as the NHL is littered with low-value contracts for big money. These contracts can usually be moved out for a cost; still, for teams that accumulate poor-value agreements, it can lead to problems retaining effective players and even building depth, especially in a salary-cap league.

To examine the NHL’s worst contracts, some context is needed to lay out what makes a contract “bad.” For this exercise, we will consider the years remaining on the contract, the Average Annual Value (AAV), any trade protection, a decline in playing time, and the player’s age. Let’s look at some of the most burdensome contracts in today’s NHL.

Sharks defenseman Marc-Édouard Vlasic is an obvious candidate for the worst value contract in the NHL. He is entering the final year of a disastrous eight-year, $56MM extension he signed with San Jose in July 2017. The 38-year-old was once a decorated defensive defenseman a decade ago and was an absolute beast when the Sharks marched to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2016, only to fall to the Pittsburgh Penguins. During the 2013-14 season, Vlasic had the three highest expected goals percentages in the league with three different defensive partners (as per MoneyPuck). He was elite.

But a decade later, the Montreal native has fallen on hard times and can barely crack one of the worst lineups in the NHL. It is a sad end for a player who has seen Father Time erode the skills that made him great. Vlasic could be bought out this summer, but if he isn’t, it’s hard to see him playing in the NHL beyond next season.

Sticking with the Western Conference, next up is forward Jonathan Huberdeau of the Calgary Flames, who many may argue has the most significant albatross contract in the NHL due to the sheer amount of runway left on the deal. Huberdeau signed his eight-year, $84MM extension back in August of 2022, and to call it a disaster would be an understatement. The Saint-Jerome, Quebec native finished the 2021-22 season in Florida with 30 goals and 85 assists in 80 games and was traded to Calgary by Florida as part of the ill-fated Matthew Tkachuk package. Since the trade to Alberta, the 31-year-old has tallied just 55 goals and 114 assists in 241 games.

It’s not all bad, though; this past year, Huberdeau was quite a bit better for the Flames, developing more of a defensive element to his game and finding more offensive success with 28 goals and 34 assists in 81 games. While it’s a far cry from 115 points, it is an improvement and could give some hope to Flames fans that there might be more to his game. It’s difficult to project as Huberdeau’s skating is likely going to continue to slide as he moves further along into his 30s, and it wasn’t perfect to begin with. Even with a better player, Calgary is still unlikely to extract value from the deal, and with six years left on the contract, it will likely become a complete disaster in the final years.

We will remain in Western Canada for the next contract, which is that of Edmonton Oilers defenseman Darnell Nurse. Now, Nurse deserves credit for his patience during his prior contract negotiations. He opted for two-year deals on two different occasions rather than jumping into a long-term contract. Nurse signed a two-year deal worth $6.4MM back in September 2018 and did so again in February 2020 during a time when the Oilers were hard-pressed for cap space. Now, whether or not this was up to Nurse’s own volition is irrelevant, but it sure has worked out great for the 30-year-old who is in the third year of an eight-year deal that pays him an average of $9.25MM per season. The contract hasn’t been a total disaster, as Nurse is still an effective player, but it is safe to say that Nurse is being dramatically overpaid for what he brings to the team.

Nurse draws a lot of criticism primarily due to the gap between his salary and his play, and would likely draw far less criticism if he were paid closer to the $6MM to $7MM per season. However, his contract is his contract, and he hasn’t played up to what he is being paid, and he probably never will. That being said, Nurse still puts up points and has a real snarl to his game, but his defensive presence, positioning and gap control off the rush leave a lot to be desired.

Another defenseman who cashed in at the right time was Florida defenseman Seth Jones. Jones signed his extension with the Chicago Blackhawks immediately following a trade from the Columbus Blue Jackets, and it was met with a lukewarm reception almost immediately. The eight-year, $76MM contract became so problematic for the Blackhawks that they traded Jones to the Panthers this season and ate 26.32% of the remaining five years on the deal, which means that Chicago will carry a $2.5MM retained salary charge until 2030.

Jones’ contract pays him like one of the best defensemen in the league, but unfortunately, he has never been close to actually being a top defenseman. He signed the deal at 26 years of age at a time when he had never even sniffed a Norris Trophy nomination, and had finished in the top eight just once during the 2017-18 season, in which he benefited from having Artemi Panarin on the powerplay with him. Many of the contract projections had Jones getting a contract in the $7MM to $8MM range, but his actual deal blew those out of the water. The on-ice results weren’t horrible for Jones. Still, they certainly weren’t anything close to what you would expect out of a $9.5MM defenseman, and for that, Jones was moved and now finds himself in a much better situation on a far superior team with a much lower cap hit.

Finally, we have Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Ryan Graves. For those folks clamouring for an Elias Pettersson section, we will have honourable mentions at the end. Graves has been almost unplayable in Pittsburgh, serving as a healthy scratch on arguably the worst defensive unit in the NHL this past season. The 30-year-old signed his six-year contract two years ago in free agency, and with four years remaining at a $4.5MM cap hit, he might end up playing out the deal in the AHL.

Graves was better last season for the Penguins, but he still wasn’t good despite benefiting from sheltered minutes and much easier assignments. When the Penguins signed Graves, the thought was that he could replace the departing Brian Dumoulin on the Penguins’ top defensive pairing next to Kris Letang. Still, less than halfway into the contract, he might not even serve on the top pairing of the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins. Pittsburgh will likely let Graves try to play out of his funk and won’t want to waste resources to rid themselves of the contract (at least not yet). But the likelihood of him figuring it out remains slim as he is on the wrong side of 30 and will be hard-pressed to rediscover his game.

As was mentioned earlier, several players could have been included in this list, including Pettersson. It’s hard to gauge Pettersson’s deal as he is just a year removed from an 89-point season and dealt with a personal issue with J.T. Miller this season, which no doubt impacted his play. He has plenty of time to turn things around, so it might be premature to call his contract one of the worst in the NHL.

A few other bad contracts worth mentioning are goaltenders Tristan Jarry and Philipp Grubauer, who were both sent to the AHL last season despite having cap hits north of $5MM. Grubauer’s contract and play have been very problematic for the Seattle Kraken, and he is likely to get bought out this summer. Speaking of potential buyouts, forward Chandler Stephenson won’t face a buyout anytime soon, but his seven-year, $43.75MM contract could become problematic in the next few years. The 31-year-old was perfectly fine last season, registering 13 goals and 38 assists in 78 games. Still, at $6.25MM annually, he isn’t going to provide more value than he did this past season, especially as he ages and has to make concessions to his game.

The teams that win the Stanley Cup often do so by extracting maximum value from their players while avoiding the dreaded bad contract. A team can overcome a bad deal, but it certainly makes it more difficult to retain talent. Some contracts are bad the day they are signed, while others don’t become problematic until later. It’s always difficult to project the direction a player’s career will go, but pro scouting departments are paid to do just that. The contracts listed above are all problematic for the teams that agreed to take them on, and while there are always options for moving on, teams will likely not like their choices.

Photo by Sergei Belski-Imagn Images