The 2025 Calder Trophy race is living up to every bit of the excitement it’s built up over the last few years. There are star options at every single position, with San Jose Sharks center Macklin Celebrini, Philadelphia Flyers winger Matvei Michkov, and Montreal Canadiens defender Lane Hutson receiving the most acclaim. But the focus on high-scoring skaters has left behind the focus that should be going to star Calgary Flames goaltender Dustin Wolf, as he nearly single-handedly blazes a rebuilding Flames to the postseason.
Wolf has been dazzling since the start of the season. He opened the year with a three-game win streak and .936 save percentage. By the end of December, Wolf had full claim over Calgary’s starter’s crease, and a fantastic 12-5-2 record and .914 save percentage to show for it. Even better, he’s managed to find a second gear since the calendar turned over. Wolf ranks ninth in the NHL with 10 wins, and sixth in save percentage with a .916, since January 1st. His statline has placed him in the company of potential Vezina Trophy candidates like Connor Hellebuyck, Logan Thompson, and Darcy Kuemper.
The performance is almost hard to believe. Wolf’s season-long .915 save percentage ranks sixth in the NHL this season – and marks the highest from a U24 starting goaltender since Jeremy Swayman managed the same total in 2021-22. At an age where the top echelon of goaltender begin to separate from the pack, Wolf has shown his ability to perform on a nightly basis.
Even better, he’s managed it behind a Flames roster that entered the season seemingly in the midst of a rebuild. Calgary is on the tail end of one of the biggest fire-sales in recent memory, shipping off each of Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin, Jacob Markstrom, Andrew Mangiapane, Elias Lindholm, and Nikita Zadorov in and around the the 2023-24 season. That’s massive turnover – and forced big roles onto veterans that stuck around, like Rasmus Andersson and Nazem Kadri, and top youngsters, like Matthew Coronato, Connor Zary, and Kevin Bahl. The ensuing instability has shown in Calgary’s on-ice results. They’ve allowed the eighth-most shots-against per-game this season (29.2), and the highest expected goals-against per-60 (xGA/60) of any Western Conference team in the race for the playoffs (2.43) per MoneyPuck.
Despite the bombardment they face, Calgary has also allowed the 12th-fewest goals of any team in the league (181). Wolf’s consistency has willed the Flames to the Western Conference’s second Wild Card slot, even as they sit with a -20 goal differential (161-to-181). They’ve allowed the 12th-fewest goals in the league, with Wolf on track to record 50 starts in his rookie season.
It’s far harder to measure a goaltender’s value at a glance than it is to measure a skater’s. Hutson, Celebrini, and Michkov leading NHL rookies in scoring with
49, 48, and 47 points respectively puts them into a clear top-notch group. Hutson leading the pack as a defenseman is an even deeper sentiment. But none of the trio have quite broken away from the rest of their position group. Celebrini and Michkov remain buried in forward scoring. Hutson ranks eighth in points from a defenseman, though he’s the only one in the top 10 with a negative plus-minus. Meanwhile, Wolf ranks sixth in save percentage (.915), 11th in total wins (22), and 13th in goals-against average (2.52). He’s quickly jumped into company with the NHL’s best netminders in his first real opportunity, all while operating with the precedent of a former seventh-round pick standing at just six-foot tall.
The Calder Trophy hasn’t gone to a netminder since Steve Mason won it with the 2008-09 Columbus Blue Jackets. Mason tied for the 11th-highest save percentage (.916) and 10th-most wins (33), and outright earned the second-highest goals-against average (2.29) that season. The Calder win was marked by Mason quickly earning Columbus’ starting role and near single-handedly willing the team to their first postseason berth in franchise history, after seven years without one. His performance may stand a slide head taller than Wolf’s, but the two seasons are eerily similar. Mason beat out (second in voting), Drew Doughty (fifth), and Steven Stamkos (ninth) – among others – for the 2009 Calder Trophy. Wolf’s competition may be a bit more direct this year – but past precedent could, and should, be enough to bestow the new face of Calgary’s crease with the Rookie of the Year title.
Ridiculous. Celebrini and Michkov and Hutson better.
Better at what?
Wolf should win without much trouble.
We’ll see at season’s end, but I like Wolf and Hutson better than the forwards, who are not having great seasons compared to most Calder winners.
Dustin Wolf also shows why teams should draft twice as many goalies as they do and at any part of the draft. You never know and when you hit on one, it can change your franchise.
Ask the Rangers.
What were Bedard’s numbers last year? I’m pretty sure Celebrini and Michkov have comparable stats on just as poor teams.
You missed that cellebrini is clocking almost a point per game? What do you want from a rookie before they have a great season? 1.5 pt/g? 2pt/g? Hart trophy?
Bedard’s numbers were kinda weak, too, honestly. No Wolf in his year.
We are spoiled in PGH, I want to see 85 to 100 points from star rookies.
When you miss time, you open up the door to someone else winning.
Ask McDavid where his Calder is.
Ha. I reckon Cellebrini could still hit 70. He’s been hot lately. That’d be pretty big for a rookie to hit 70 in 70.
Celebrini is very good, but a rookie putting up a .915 on a mediocre team is also very good.
Or Jets, Helly was a 5th round pick with 10 goalies picked before him .
He’s pretty good , hoping he shows up for the playoffs this year.
If Wolf were an inch or two taller he would’ve been taken no lower than the 3rd round. He’s always been an excellent goalie. He certainly would be deserving of the Calder.
Lol seems like a Homer article. See the Vegas odds dude, wolf was like 5th in betting money when I looked last week.