The NHL and NHLPA have released updated salary cap estimates for the next three seasons, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports Friday. After initially being estimated to rise from the current $88MM ceiling to $92MM for the 2025-26 campaign, it’ll jump to a $95.5MM upper limit next season. Upper limit estimates for the 2026-27 and 2027-28 seasons have been set at $104MM and $113.5MM, respectively. However, Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff reports that the memo sent to teams by the league today is indicative of a set agreement on figures for the next three years, not an estimate of projection, although they are still subject to “potential minor adjustments (up or down).”
In addition to this summer’s major jump, these numbers indicate a steady escalation in year-over-year increases in the cap ceiling. There will be a $7.5MM difference in upper limits between the 2024-25 and 2025-26 campaigns, an $8.5MM difference between 2025-26 and 2026-27, and $9.5MM between 2026-27 and 2027-28. That’s around a 9% jump per year on average, up significantly from the roughly 5% jump we’re used to in recent seasons outside of the COVID-related cap freeze.
Increases in cap ceilings also mean big jumps in the minimum a team can spend while still being compliant. The cap floor will rise from $65MM this season to $70.6MM in 2025-26, $76.9MM in 2026-27, and $83.9MM in 2027-28. The lower limit is tied directly to the upper limit – the floor is always set at 85% of the midpoint, with the ceiling always equaling 115% of the midpoint.
The league minimum salary, currently set at $775K, is independent of the salary cap and will need to be set during CBA negotiations, which are set to begin next month. It will remain at $775K for next season, the last under the current CBA.
As agents continue to negotiate new deals for their players based on cap hit percentage at the time of signing instead of actual dollar value, both elite and mid-range free agents in the coming seasons stand to benefit massively. A $5MM cap hit today is 5.68% of the $88MM upper limit, which will be equivalent to $5.4MM, $5.9MM, and $6.4MM over the coming three years. For higher-priced talents, a $10MM AAV deal today will work out to $10.9MM in 2025-26, $11.8MM in 2026-27, and $12.9MM in 2027-28.
The early confirmation and unprecedented move to issue official cap numbers multiple years in advance means more negotiating power for top UFAs-to-be, whether that’s Mitch Marner and Mikko Rantanen on this year’s market, Connor McDavid and Kirill Kaprizov in 2026, or Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar in 2027. Next year’s immediate $7.5MM jump will be the largest year-over-year increase in the salary cap era, breaking the record set by the $6.4MM jump between the 2007-08 and 2008-09 campaigns.
Nice to see hockey finally admitting they are rolling in cash.
Well, these numbers will help teams now for the upcoming trade deadline. Teams especially contending teams will know what their financial situation will potentially be heading into the offseason which will help determine & implicate what they can aim for in the upcoming trade deadline.
It’s interesting that over the next 3 seasons the cap is significantly increasing year-by-year which could alter the NHL landscape in a number of ways, particularly for contending teams, as their Cup contention could possibly stay open longer if a team’s GM strategically plays it smart.
Ya teams like the leafs that have a large portion of their roster on decently long term deals could make out like bandits, Willy’s deal is already a steal but 3 years from now even more so plus will have guys like Woll and Tanev making significantly less than what they should be. Even Mathews and his big 5 year deal will be a decent bargain
The original post said cup contenders which the Leafs are not. The contracts for Matthews, Marner and Nylander can all be considered bargains all you want but it matters not when they can’t get past the first round.
Troll much? Sorry that leafs have permanent residence in your brain.
Mo sorry your team can’t make playoffs or be relevant, I truly can’t wait for the days that the wings Buffalo Ottawa and Montreal can all be close to the leafs level as the sport is better when those teams can face off in the playoffs and re discover the great rivalries that they have with Toronto
@bigdaddyt
You are suggesting Willy Ny’s 11.5M deal, the 7th richest in the league vs the cap is a steal when he is tied for 37th at PPG? Ouch. It may not be the anchor some fans of other teams suggest, but its certainly not a steal. A steal, at least for now, is Draisaitl making 8.5M to lead the league in goals, 2nd in points and 4th in the ever so flawless +/-.
Willy is a good player, but certainly not a steal.
(scritches his head) You’d think that the best measure of how Nylander was doing was how many *goals*, period, he’s putting in the net, not how many of those are coming on the power play. In the former measure, he’s tied for 4th in the league. I don’t think he’s a “steal” either, but that’s because he’s already 28 and has seven years more to go on a NMC, and isn’t likely to improve from here.
Rantanen bout to get paid.
Yep. I wonder if either he or Marner’s going to be the first $15 million player. If not, McDavid or Kaprisov surely will be the next season.
And to think that the hockey world was rocked by Bobby Orr getting somewhere south of $40,000 his first season, then the highest salary in history. That sure dates me.
I just wish all workers had wage increases like professional athletes have.
If 19,000 people came and paid $100 each (some would pay $200+) to watch you work 41 times a year I bet you’d make more
If I make 250 widgets an hour, each sold at a profit of $10 per unit, why do I only make $20? That’s the question you should be asking, really. Every single day.
Because your wage is just a fraction of the overhead………
If your widget making skills can be easily replaced by someone else, your wage or salary will be limited. Simple supply/demand economics. If you want to get paid for each widget produced, you need to negotiate a profit sharing plan in your next contract.
Have to unionize and negotiate a 50% revenue split then… can’t see companies doing that for us average joes
Mcdavid might hit 20m
Connor supposedly preached to the team a year or so ago that if the team wants to keep the band together they’ll all have to take a slight haircut compared to what they could get on the open market. I suspect he’ll do that, like I think a lot would consider Draisaitl did (he didn’t take much of a discount but probably left half a million off the board) and takes something around the 17-18M range. He won’t force them into the 20 range as some are suggesting. But he could also come in looking for a 5-6 year deal instead of 8.
I love when the boys make some money, but you just gotta hope it doesn’t only go to the top tier players. That extra cap space is vital for filling your team out with solid players.
Keep raising those ticket prices & $15 beers USD. Really ! All 4 major sports players are way over-paid.
It’s supply and demand. If you don’t want to pay it, don’t pay it. The problem is somebody else will.
I don’t want to pay it, and I don’t pay it. I haven’t paid to see a major league game in ANY sport in over thirty years now. It’s exclusively minor league and college sport for me, at a fraction of the price. My flex pack season ticket to AHL games costs me about what a single prime seat for a single GAME costs in some NHL cities.
I don’t blame you at all for that, prices are ridiculous to go to games. I go to a lot of MLB games and the odd NFL game. I enjoy CHL hockey much more than NHL, live at least. But ticket and concession prices will never fall as long as people keep on paying for it. It’s not the players who are at fault for high prices. It’s basic economics.
They are paid what the market will bear. Not overpaid. Not underpaid. Simple economics.
Incoming McDavid 20×8 contract
I worried for the fans. I hope those income raises are not planned to be applied to ticket prices. It is crazy to raise the cap to 114M in so a short time
Of course they will be. That, and the ad creep will continue, until the uniforms and the ice look like European hockey.
Then the creeps that run all the gambling sites will own most the teams also!
I wonder how the league can estimate caps 3 years out when the cap is directly related to league related revenue? Many economic experts are suggesting a difficult time going forward for the next couple years yet fans will be able to afford the exuberant prices teams are charging for tickets, jerseys, food and drinks in rink, parking at games, streaming rates, ect. I can’t see revenue continuing to grow at the rate it has the past 2-3 years with the league using all those profits to escape the escrow it had in place.
1 big year (this year), followed by stagnation is coming IMO. If the league follows by their CBA terms and keep it at the current split.
More fans are cutting the cable by the week, and they can’t expect TV revenues to grow much. And many more can’t afford to take their family to a game at the prices these days.
Things are going to stall hard and soon. See baseball and their broadcasting situation. The league is taking over many teams. NHL won’t be far behind.
this is my example: Teams like Toronto for instance. They pay the big money to attract top free agents. When the contracts are about expire, they have major problems. Trade top players because of the existing cap or let them walk. Not going to happen, right? So the NHL doesn’t want to see this happen & want to protect their money making favorite franchises OR they will lose viewership. Loss of $$$$. I believe there are several teams that fit into this category. It is all B.S.
I don’t know, Wreckage … I was predicting that things were going to stall hard and soon on that front thirty years ago. No sign of it yet.