John Carlson’s Resurgence Driving Capitals’ Hot Start

The Capitals have been in no man’s land for the past few seasons. Their record has steadily regressed as Alex Ovechkin continues to chase Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal-scoring record, a mark he’ll likely hit this season. In 2023, they missed the playoffs entirely for the first time in nine years, and they’ve yet to win a postseason series since lifting the Stanley Cup in 2018.

Washington got back into the playoff picture last season, but most viewed it as a mirage – and rightfully so. The team’s 40-31-11 record translated to 91 points, which would have kept them seven out of a berth in the Western Conference. They also squeaked in with an astonishing -37 goal differential, a bottom-five offense, and below-league-average 5-on-5 analytics and special teams. Put nicely, it was a fluke. Unsurprisingly, they were outscored 15-7 by the Rangers in the first round and exited without a win.

But entering Saturday’s games, the Caps had a 7-2-0 record and a .778 points percentage, tied with the Hurricanes for the best in the East. Last year’s sputtering offense has suddenly come alive, averaging 4.11 goals per game. At the time of writing, they’re set to improve that total after a six-goal effort in the first half of their game against the Blue Jackets.

Nearly every red flag from last season’s showing has been erased as they enter their second season with Spencer Carbery as head coach. They’ve been a legitimately dominant force at even strength. Heading into the weekend, the Caps’ 54.6 CF% at 5-on-5 was fourth in the league, as was their 55.4 SCF%. Their 55.3% share of high-danger chances at 5-on-5 was seventh.

Ovechkin (5 G, 5 A) and center Dylan Strome, who leads the club with 10 assists and 13 points, have the flashiest point totals. However, chugging along on the back end is John Carlson, who, despite turning 35 in a couple of months, is arguably having the best start of his career in terms of two-way play.

Carlson has remained a minute muncher in his twilight years. Last year, he led the league in average time on ice at 25:54 per game. Washington made a concerted effort to get him more help this offseason, swapping Nick Jensen for Jakob Chychrun and inking top-four fixture Matt Roy in free agency. Roy’s acquisition was mainly targeted to relieve Carlson’s workload as a much-improved No. 2 right-shot option, but he’s been out since the season opener with a lower-body injury.

That hasn’t affected Carlson in the slightest. He’s averaging a whopping 26:25 per game, still leading the league while posting the best possession metrics of his life. His newfound ability to control possession at even strength is arguably the most significant impetus behind Washington’s early-season success. The Caps control 57% of shot attempts at even strength with Carlson on the ice compared to 51.5% without him. The Capitals lifer has never had that much of an impact on Washington’s even-strength possession control in his 16-year career. He’s had a fair amount of seasons, especially early in his career, where he was a drain on their 5-on-5 possession play. Overall, his numbers have been about in line with the Capitals’ team averages.

He’s also turned back the clock offensively with a pair of goals and six assists for eight points in nine games. After continuing to hover near a point per game in the early days of the post-COVID era, he was limited to 0.66 points per game over the 2022-23 and 2023-24 campaigns. That’s led to him not receiving even any outside Norris Trophy consideration after finishing no lower than 12th in five straight years from 2018 to 2022. His +11 rating is also tied with the Golden Knights’ Brayden McNabb and the Lightning’s J.J. Moser for the league lead. Most of that point production has come at even strength, too, with only one each of those goals and assists coming on the power play.

At least so far, all those advanced numbers point to Carlson’s resurgence as sustainable, at least for this season. He also ranks fourth on the team in blocks (14), seventh in hits (14), and is tied with Chychrun for the team lead with seven takeaways.

His re-emergence as a top-flight defenseman also leads to a rarity for Washington – the last couple of years of a max-term extension being worth face value. Carlson is still locked in at $8MM against the cap through the 2025-26 season. It was a contract that gave Washington great value through the first couple of years but started to look dicey at the midway point, a commonality with long-term pacts. But his early-season showing suggests he’s still worth that money, if not more, in terms of market value.

While the Capitals’ roster has been rejuvenated with some newly drafted and developed talent, it’s still an excellent story for a member of the old guard to be a legitimate factor in the team’s on-ice success as the franchise turns the page. Carlson owns nearly every franchise record among defenders. He’s the only D-man to play over 1,000 career games in a Capitals uniform, and he also owns team records for career goals (153), assists (529), points (682), and shots (2,375) among defenders.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.