The looming contract of Brock Boeser of the Vancouver Canucks was recently analyzed by Patrick Johnston of The Province. Johnston argues that Boeser is almost certainly set to get a raise from his current $6.65MM salary but it shouldn’t be an unpalatable one from the Canucks’ perspective.
Like many members of the 2023-24 Canucks, Boeser is coming off one of the best statistical seasons of his career. He cracked the 40-goal mark for the first time while finishing third on the team in scoring among forwards with 73 points. Boeser also finished third among forwards in ice time while averaging 18:36 a game and played the most out of any forwards when Vancouver was tied, or leading by one or two goals.
As much as he’s relied upon by head coach Rick Tocchet, Boeser will have a hard time arguing he is more than the third-most important forward on the roster. Because of this, he will almost certainly not crack J.T. Miller’s salary of $8MM per season in Vancouver, and he must also prove that last season was not a flash in the pan. From 2017-23, Boeser averaged a 12.7% shooting percentage while being a solid secondary scorer, and his 19.6% mark this past season leads to assumptions that regression towards his mean will soon follow.
Compared to his peers around the league, Boeser’s $6.65MM cap hit ranks 30th among wingers in the NHL, and he will once again have difficulty arguing that he is worth more to the Canucks than Jason Robertson is to the Dallas Stars who gave him an AAV of $7.75MM for four years. According to HockeyReference, Boeser shows a near-identical similarity score to Clayton Keller of the Utah Hockey Club who makes a salary of $7.15MM.
A modest $500K salary increase over a presumably longer-term deal may feel like a slap in the face to Boeser which could seriously hinder the extension negotiations. However, especially with all the data available to teams, it’s hard to envision Boeser landing more on the open market. There may be a scenario where he could earn closer to $7.75MM with the cap set to rise considerably over the next few years but that will likely be the cutoff point for many teams.
A contract in the $7.15MM-$7.75MM over the next four to six years shouldn’t be unpalatable to Vancouver either. The team will be laser-like focused on the upcoming contracts for Quinn Hughes and Thatcher Demko, but a hypothetical contract in that range for Boeser shouldn’t prohibit any long-term plans. This team will only go as far as their core can take them and given Boeser’s importance to the organization’s turnaround last season, he should be a player they envision on the team moving forward.
Love the guy
But he’s had his career year. He reminds me of Toffoli and will be a scorer, defensively reliable, no PK, but all in all a poor skater that won’t age that well.
Somewhere in the yuuuge range. :D
Sheets of paper with lots of large numbers written in it.
Sounds about right.
The issue more will be term I believe, since he & his agent understandably will want 6+ years. I’d pay a little more – $7.9 – to keep it 3-4 years. That could be a dealbreaker but so be it.