Jan. 8: Nylander and the Maple Leafs are indeed closing in on an eight-year, $92MM total value extension, TSN’s Darren Dreger corroborates Monday morning. There is still “some work getting done” on the deal, however, and it’s unclear whether it will become official today. Chris Johnston of TSN and The Athletic expects the deal to contain full no-movement protection and “favorable bonus structuring.”
Jan. 6: The Maple Leafs could announce an extension for star winger William Nylander after returning from their California road trip, potentially on Monday, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said on tonight’s Hockey Night in Canada broadcast. Per Friedman, it’s likely to be an eight-year deal carrying a stratospheric AAV of $11.5MM.
That price tag is roughly $2.5MM higher than what new Toronto GM Brad Treliving offered in the early stages of negotiations last summer. Nylander’s 43-goal, 116-point pace through 36 games has eliminated the possibility of a seven-figure cap hit, however, solidifying him as the best pending free agent available in the 2024 class.
It’s also a significant increase on the $10MM-per-season deal Nylander reportedly requested before this season began. Throughout his torrid start to the campaign, which included a franchise-record 17-game point streak, the reported cap hit on an extension began to steadily climb. With that ascent now seemingly arriving at the $11.5MM mark, Treliving won’t wait any longer to put pen to paper and keep his team’s current points leader in the organization long-term.
That contract would tie Nylander for the fifth-highest cap hit in the league beginning next season with Penguins defenseman Erik Karlsson, who they have at a reduced price of $10MM through the retained salary trade that brought him there from the Sharks last summer. It also leaves Toronto with two of the top five most lucrative contracts in the league beginning in 2024 – star center Auston Matthews’ $13.25MM AAV extension will give him the highest cap hit in the league.
His performance this season seems like the real deal, and advanced metrics suggest this similar rate of production should be sustainable for a number of years as he plays out his prime. Despite his career-high goal-scoring pace, his 12% shooting percentage this season is actually less than his 12.3% career average. His two-way game has never been better, either – he’s on pace for an expected rating of +24.6, which would shatter his career-high of +18.9 set last season.
So, in a vacuum, it may be difficult to criticize the price tag given his market value as a pending UFA. However, that cap hit works out to a combined $46.6MM in spending wrapped up in Matthews, Nylander, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares next season – over 53% of the $87.5MM salary cap in 2024-25 spent on four forwards. That doesn’t include Morgan Rielly and his $7.5MM cap hit, which works out to nearly 62% of the salary cap spent on five players. With the current LTIR relief of John Klingberg, Matt Murray and Jake Muzzin all coming off the books next summer, it’ll be an extremely tight one-year squeeze until Marner’s and Tavares’ deals expire in 2025.
Assuming both Marner and Tavares stay with Toronto, the former likely won’t command a significant raise on his current $10.9MM cap hit. However, Tavares’ $11MM cap hit will likely see a multi-million dollar reduction, freeing up a notable amount of money for Treliving as the salary cap jumps to an expected value of $92MM in 2025-26.
Nylander will be 28 years old when the deal begins, and if it’s signed as reported, he’ll be 35 years old in the last season of the deal in 2031-32. Avoiding a long-term commitment to Nylander into his late 30s should help Toronto avoid some serious devaluation of the contract in the final few seasons, but even with a rising salary cap, it’s fair to expect the contract to age poorly in its seventh and eighth seasons as is the case with most long-term deals signed near the beginning of a player’s UFA eligibility.
Nonetheless, it expects to be another landmark signing for a team that’s had quite a few of them in the last decade. The ultimate question – whether or not this core can lead them to a Stanley Cup – of course remains to be seen. With Nylander posting a point per game over his last three playoff runs, however, there’s little doubt about his individual ability to perform in mid-April and beyond.
8 years, 88 million.
And still….no goaltending anywhere to be seen.
Oh, it’s been seen alright…
We’ll I’m guessing this means writing is on the wall for Mitch. Sign Willy to this deal and in the offseason trade Mitch for a kings ransom. Use the money saved on Mitch’s contract to facilitate this signing along with whoever they bring back in the deal. They then ride rookie contracts of Woll, Hildeby, Knies, Mitten and Cowan. Plus that will be last year of JT contract so then the year after leafs roster will only really have Rielly, Matthews’s and Nylander under big deals leaving an amount of payroll flexibility that the leafs haven’t known since drafting Papi
They should move marner now if it gets them a better deal than the offseason. Paying those top 4 guys that amount of cap space is poor management.
Marner has a full no movement clause. He’s not getting traded.
Nylander will get a bloated number and bloated term because Toronto management never gets it right, It should be 8 million annually for six years.
And why in the world would Willy sign that deal? Caps going up, meaning contracts will go up, and he’s outperforming that deal as we speak
What’s so wrong with management being responsible by offering a deal that will age well that makes sense for both sides? The Leafs will have far to much money tied in just a few players and that old and tired mistake will keep them from winning.
Not having a true top defenseman (emphasis on defense) and a lack of goaltending, especially in clutch moments, is what keeps them from winning. Fortunately they can still make millions without advancing in the playoffs. Swedes do tend to age better if that’s any consolation to the length of Nylander’s next contract. Fire Shannahan if they lose in the first round. Coach isn’t the scapegoat.
Because it doesnt make sense from both sides. Nylander would be a fool to accept that when he could get close to this deal as a UFA.
Delusion finds you frequently Brother Wilf. Maybe throw on a helmet?
The only person that offer helps is the leafs.. nylander is and has been giving the leafs a discount since he signed his last deal of 6.5.. there was no way he was going to give another discount. And to be fair this could be seen as a discounted price in a few years with the cap skyrocketing in the next few years. 11.25mil is a solid deal for a 40goal 90 to 100+ point player who also shows up in the playoffs as well.. leafs were never going to get him for under 10 considering theres probably 20 nhl teams right now that would offer him max deal in the offseason as a ufa.
Makes sense for both sides- because he won’t sign that deal, so they offer what he’s worth and he takes it. The choice isn’t to pay what you want to pay him, it’s either pay what he’s worth or lose him you forgot that part
A 2nd wilf? Noooo man the comment section can’t even stand one wilf
To me 11.5M per is a little too steep for 8 years term. If he wants 8 years term it should fall closer to 9.75-10.25M, bump it a bit for every year it’s shortened. For $11.5 he gets a 4-5 year deal at max. But I’m not the leafs ownership or management. Get him a Matthews type deal where he has to prove it more often and you can fix it to the cap along the way. Works out for both player and team.
Sooner or later teams need to wise up at how much these max term deals cripple them long term. Not the GMs, of course: what GM imagines he’ll be there in eight years? and if they don’t produce NOW, they’ll be fired. But I wonder what percentage is in it for team ownership? If I’m an owner, what is in it for me to have my team carrying untradeable millstones around my neck?
Obviously Nylander is an elite, consistent player in his prime, but yeah, wonder what the Toronto fans will be thinking about this five years from now?
Perhaps ownership just looks at the bottom line. The brand is what matters. If they can win the Cup would just be icing on the cake.
What more does nylander have to prove? Hes scored 40goals he has potential to be a 100pt player. He plays a two way game. He drives the play. Hes a playoff performer and hes coming off a 6.5 x 6 deal.. i think he has earned the right to demand a large contract and he doesnt owe toronto or the fans anything in terms of discounts.
Willy is a floater in the Playoffs. Loves to stay on the perimeter. Leafs will never win a Cup with him and Soft Serve Matthews. Will take Tage Thompson at just under $8 mill per over Willy and his $11.5 for 8 Max Ticket any day.
Brad T’s brain is not working right, too many Boston Pizza pepperonis filled with nitrates clouding his judgement.
Actually, if you looked at the statistics, you’d see Willy is one of the few Leafs that actually shows up in the playoffs. Matthews, Tavares, and Marner have traditionally disappeared, but Willy Styles has either kept up his numbers or surpassed them come april/may.
But keep on pushing your own narratives.
Willy was our only player last playoffs creating offense on every shift.
So they will have the big 5 now but we all know any team should build from the goal out and that’s the Maple Leafs problem…big problem…good luck for the next 8+ years
Woll
Witu Marner’s extension coming up next which will be about another $2-$3mil per more. Add in Matthew’s & his next extension within the next 3 seasons which again will be another $2-$3mil per more. The Leafs will have about $40+mil per allocated to 3 players within 4 years from now (about 45%ish of the cap).
Build from finesse forwards on out. Should work.
I saw this post and instantly got excited to read the comments. On this site most people are either leaf haters or leaf lovers, so I knew the convo would be interesting.
Heh, well, I’m a Leaf hater, but no one can claim that keeping Nylander on board is a bad move. I wouldn’t even bitch about the cap hit if I were a GTA resident. It’s just the term that will bite them badly, and far worse if this turns out to be another NMC.
I think the deal will look better in 2-3 years when other players come off the books. Until the leafs focus on the blue line though it will be tough to win anything. The fact our team is so soft top to bottom is also a huge factor we have had no playoff success. The leafs just aren’t a hard team to play against like the Bruins or Lightning were for so many years
Bottom line. Nylander will get huge money and term, The contract will age terribly, And in the end the Leafs won’t win any relevant hardware.
So you would rather lose a 100 point player for nothing?
Not at all. I’m saying don’t overpay to a point where you can’t compete because everything is wrapped up in 6 or 7 guys.
Right. But how do you not overpay? Top end talent costs top end money, period. Your options are either pay him what it takes to keep him or he will go get it somewhere else while you get nothing. You can’t just approach a guy with that pedigree, having the year he’s having and say “I know you can easily get 11×7 from pretty much every team out there, but I’d really like you to take about two thirds of that with less terms. You’re good with that, right?”
If you let Nylander walk, You suddenly free up alot of money to fill in the holes at other positions to make the Leafs a bigger threat.
So you ARE in the let-him-walk camp. I guess I was confused because you said you werent….
It’s a tough position to be in, for sure. If they sign willy, they can’t afford to fill other needs. If they don’t, they likely lose him for nothing. The real issue in toronto is all the NMC/NTC contracts, not so much the dollars. It turns out that adding in Tavares was probably a mistake.