Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Lightning.
RFAs: F Tye Felhaber, F Simon Ryfors, F Otto Somppi, F Odeen Tufto, D Sean Day, D Alex Green, G Alexei Melnichuk
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
F Ondrej Palat — Entering his 30s now, the Czech is in line for the second payday of his career as his five-year, $26.5MM contract signed in 2017 expires this offseason. Palat remains a dominant playmaking winger on the top line of a team entering the dynasty conversation with a third consecutive Stanley Cup Finals appearance within reach. While injuries have somewhat artificially lowered his regular-season point totals, he’s remained remarkably consistent, notching between 15 and 20 goals for three consecutive seasons. It’s in the playoffs where Palat has done his best work, though. He’s really shone through on Tampa’s current run, scoring eight goals, six assists, and 14 points in 16 games, the best points-per-game rate in his playoff career. He was equally as impressive during Tampa’s first Cup run in 2020, scoring 11 goals in 25 games and playing 20:55 per game. He’s been leaned on heavily in the second and third rounds this year with Brayden Point’s injury, and his performance is only boosting the number he’ll receive on his next contract. Whether Palat becomes the latest player to fall victim to Tampa’s constant cap crunch remains to be seen.
F Nick Paul — The Trade Deadline acquisition from the Ottawa Senators has done it all for the Lightning in his short tenure, most notably with his two-goal performance to knock out the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 7 in the First Round. Paul’s shown his ability to stick out on an already talented team, as his defensive game (especially on the penalty kill) has fortified Tampa’s depth in a much-needed way. While a defensive specialist first and foremost, he did have 14 points down the stretch in 21 games for Tampa and he’s added seven points in 16 playoff games. If that’s a sign of what Paul can really produce on a good team, he should be a hot commodity in free agency among contenders who have a little more cap flexibility. In the same way that Yanni Gourde broke out and flourished in the same third-line center role, few would expect Tampa to be able to retain Paul’s services as a UFA. It’s never a good idea to count out general manager Julien BriseBois and his team’s expert cap management, though, and he’d continue to play an important depth role moving forward.
D Jan Rutta — A latecomer to NHL action, making his NHL debut at 27, Rutta’s been used as the partner to Victor Hedman at even strength and gotten the job done. While his special teams minutes are nonexistent aside from a small amount of penalty-killing time, he’s been an important depth piece for Tampa, although maybe not to the degree of someone like Paul. He’s demonstrated that he can be reliable in limited minutes or with sheltered competition, making him an ideal, cheap complementary veteran for a team’s top players. If Rutta demands a raise on his current $1.3MM cap hit, though, it could be tough for the Lightning to keep him around. Teams are constantly willing to pay up for right-shot UFA defensemen, and Rutta could benefit financially from that market elsewhere.
Other UFAs: F Riley Nash, F Remi Elie, F Charles Hudon, F Anthony Richard, D Fredrik Claesson, D Darren Raddysh, G Maxime Lagace
Projected Cap Space
At first glance, things really don’t look good for the Lightning this offseason. CapFriendly already projects them in the red for this offseason with a -$2MM figure for their projected cap space. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story, as the potential LTIR relief from Brent Seabrook’s $6.785MM figure isn’t incorporated into that total. Tampa likely has closer to $4.5MM to work with this offseason, which, if they do plan on keeping Palat around, will likely all go to him (if he’ll take a discount).
It’s likely that the Lightning lose another key piece this offseason, whether it be due to Palat walking or the team trading away another player. Some eyes would look at Ryan McDonagh and his $6.75MM cap hit as juicy trade material to free up space, especially considering the team still has Mikhail Sergachev stuck behind Hedman and McDonagh on the depth chart. He still plays an incredibly important role on the team, though, and it would be a tough goodbye considering the team’s lack of real depth on the right side.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Nothing terrible here this off-season, but the following years are probably the critical ones they’ll be facing.
Ummm … being able to put Seabrooke on LTIR is nice, but the Lightning have to be cap compliant BEFORE they do that. Which pretty much puts the kibosh on re-signing Palat, Paul or Rutta to so much as league minimum without clearing out some serious salary as a prerequisite.
And there are no candidates to do that where one doesn’t leave serious holes on the roster: unloading Killorn or Cirelli (for instance) so that they can keep Palat makes no sense. No one making big money is a soft hole in the lineup, and the Perrys and Maroons aren’t making enough $ to be an issue … quite aside from that they’re contributing useful bottom-six production.
Nah, in the short term, they DO have to do something like bribe a team to take McDonagh off their hands, and suck up the hole that puts in the lineup.
That’s the short term. The long term is that for the next few years, they just have to stop handing out $7MM contracts to people. The 2023 offseason is when the likes of Cirelli, Colton, Sergachev, Killorn and Cernak all hit the market, and any one of them who wants a raise over what they’ve been making, Tampa has to wave goodbye and good fortune to them.
Would be nice to see Palat in a Winged Wheel jersey!
Watching the TB followers yap about the moves that the organization should make is rather amusing. It’s almost like these know-it-all’s don’t know that the current management team has put together a team that has won consecutive Cups.
Ya….the same people that wanted to cut Stammer loose, or said get something for Heddy while you can. Realistically I think this might be the Lightnings last hoorah with this line up before they have to get in the rebuild mode. I wouldnt blame all of them if they went for the money. My as well…..after they 3peat they pretty much did everything they wanted to do. But then again you never know what tricks BriseBois has up his sleeve.