Offseason Keys: Toronto Maple Leafs

With the Stanley Cup now awarded, the offseason is now in full swing.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in the weeks to come?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Last summer, Toronto added a pair of key veterans in free agency in Patrick Marleau and Ron Hainsey with the hopes that they would help lead a young team armed with another year of experience to bigger and better things.  They had a strong regular season but were still ousted in the first round.  This summer, the Leafs have plenty of cap space to work with (well over $20MM) but with some young stars in need of new contracts in the near future, they will have to spend wisely.  Getting those stars signed highlight Toronto’s offseason keys.

Extension Talks

Two members of Toronto’s ‘big three’ are still signed for 2018-19 in center Auston Matthews and winger Mitch Marner.  They’re both locked up on entry-level deals at $925K and $894K respectively (plus some performance bonuses) and both are well-positioned to vastly surpass that on their next deals which could impact how they spend their money this offseason.

Matthews, the first-overall selection back in 2016, has lived up to the hype and has quickly established himself as one of the top centers in the league.  Last summer, Buffalo’s Jack Eichel (the second pick in 2015) inked an eight-year, $10MM extension and that’s viewed as the benchmark for Matthews to surpass on this contract.  If he signs this summer instead of waiting for next offseason, he should rival John Tavares for the richest deal signed in the months to come.

While Matthews has received the bulk of the limelight, Marner has quickly established himself as a productive player as well; he actually led the Leafs in scoring in both the regular season and playoffs.  He’s not going to come close to what Matthews gets on his next deal but a max-term deal (or close to it) could check in between $6MM and $7MM, even factoring in the fact that four of the years on that deal are restricted free agency seasons.

Those two pending contracts could add $15MM or more (after bonuses) to Toronto’s payroll for 2019-20 and beyond.  With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see new GM Kyle Dubas look at signing some one-year deals this summer to use their cap room for next season without cutting into their space for the following year.

New Deal For Nylander

The other member of the ‘big three’ is in need of a new contract this summer in winger William Nylander.  He’s also coming off a strong season that saw him amass 61 points for the second straight year; those are his only full NHL campaigns.  He isn’t expected to get quite as much as Marner but he’s still going to get a substantial raise from the $894K AAV (plus $850K in performance bonuses) he made in 2017-18 although he isn’t eligible for arbitration just yet.

There is another interesting decision to be made when it comes to the 22-year-old.  While he has played center in the past, he has spent the bulk of his NHL time on the right wing.  Tyler Bozak is a candidate to depart in unrestricted free agency so there is an opening to be filled down the middle.  Toronto has good prospect depth on the wing but none of their prospects are ready to take Bozak’s spot so they’ll have to decide whether they would like to shift Nylander into that role.  (Rookies Miro Aaltonen and Par Lindholm should battle for the fourth line job but won’t be ready to start on the third line.)  However, given Nylander’s smaller stature, there is a little bit of risk involved in doing so but at the same time, his playmaking skills would be even better utilized at center.  It’s certainly an interesting call for them to make that may wind up being dictated by what they do (or don’t do) in the coming months.

Add A Right-Shooting Top-Four Defenseman

In Morgan Reilly, Toronto has a quality top-pairing defender on the left side.  However, finding a partner for him has been a challenge in recent years and as a result, it should be near the top of the to-do list again this offseason as they won’t be able to fill that spot internally.

Hainsey did a nice job overall playing alongside Reilly this past season.  However, as a lefty, that’s not his natural side to play and there will certainly be some risk in asking a 37-year-old to play upwards of 22 minutes a game again.  Nikita Zaitsev is a better fit on the second pairing and no matter how many times Mike Babcock can get Roman Polak re-signed, he clearly isn’t the answer either.

In terms of their prospects, Travis Dermott is the most NHL-ready and he is also a lefty.  Timothy Liljegren is the ideal long-term fit but he’s not ready to make the jump yet.  (Igor Ozhiganov, who signed back in May, is also right-shooting defender but asking him to jump onto the top pairing right away isn’t realistic.)

In free agency, only Washington’s John Carlson really fits the bill as a top-pairing player and with the pending contracts for their top young forwards, they may have some difficulty fitting in the type of contract that he will undoubtedly command (at least beyond the 2018-19 season).  As a result, Toronto may have to go the trade route to find that fit.  Fortunately for them, the Leafs have a deep prospect pool to work with which should give Dubas some options to work with as he looks to give their back end a much-needed boost.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.