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Salary Cap Deep Dive 2023

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Chicago Blackhawks

September 2, 2023 at 11:42 am CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Chicago Blackhawks

Current Cap Hit: $70,635,124 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Connor Bedard (three years, $950K)
D Wyatt Kaiser (two years, $917K)
F Lukas Reichel (one year, $925K)
D Filip Roos (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Bedard: $3.5MM
Kaiser: $425K
Reichel: $505K
Total: $4.43MM

Bedard was the player that many non-contending teams were trying to tank for last season.  Assuming he pans out as anticipated, he should become Chicago’s top center quite quickly.  There’s a good chance he hits his $1MM in ‘A’ bonuses while the ‘B’ ones are tough for anyone to get.  It’s far too early to realistically try to project his second contract but if he lives up to the hype, it could be the richest in franchise history.  Chicago has slow-played Reichel’s development so far, giving him tastes of NHL action but primarily keeping him in the minors.  While not a bad idea from a development perspective, it puts him in the category of being quite likely to land a short-term second contract that will keep his earnings upside down.

On the back end, it’s difficult to pick only a couple to highlight here as at this point, there are quite a few youngsters who could battle for a few spots on the roster.  Kaiser didn’t look out of place after leaving college last season, logging just shy of 19 minutes a night so he could have a leg up.  So could Roos who didn’t look out of place out of training camp a year ago.  But realistically, Alex Vlasic, Isaak Phillips, and Kevin Korchinski should be in the mix as well.  But for any of them to be in a position to command any sort of significant second contract, they’ll need to establish themselves as NHL regulars first.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Colin Blackwell ($1.2MM, UFA)
F Jason Dickinson ($2.65MM, UFA)
F Mackenzie Entwistle ($800K, RFA)
F Nick Foligno ($4MM, UFA)
F Tyler Johnson ($5MM, UFA)
F Boris Katchouk ($758K, RFA)
G Petr Mrazek ($3.8MM, UFA)
F Corey Perry ($4MM, UFA)
F Taylor Raddysh ($758K, RFA)
D Jarred Tinordi ($1.25MM, UFA)
D Nikita Zaitsev ($4.5MM, UFA)

The Blackhawks were compensated for taking on Johnson’s contract back in 2021 with Tampa Bay needing to free up cap room.  He isn’t the top-six forward he was in his prime but is still capable of playing in the middle six.  While Johnson has been on the wing lately, he’s a natural center which also helps his value.  At half this price a year from now on the open market, he should have some interest.

Dickinson is another player they were basically paid to take on.  After a disastrous year in Vancouver, he rebounded relatively well.  However, it’s hard to see him garnering more than this on his next deal since he has yet to hit the double-digit goal mark in the NHL.  A contract around the $1.5MM mark is where his value might fall.  Blackwell took a step backward last season offensively but still played an important role on the penalty kill.  He was still relatively inexperienced when he received this contract and now with what will be another couple of years under his belt when he returns to free agency, where he’s at now might be close to his earnings ceiling.

Then there are Perry and Foligno.  Chicago clearly targeted these two veterans as mentors for their younger core, trading for their negotiating rights and then handing them contracts that were extremely above market value.  Both players are best suited to play on the fourth line at this stage of their careers and had they hit the open market, they likely would have received offers for around a quarter of this amount.  Barring a high-priced one-year extension if things go well, that price range is where they should expect their next deals to be if they get one.

Among the RFA forwards, Raddysh is the most notable.  Coming off a 20-goal campaign, a repeat performance plus arbitration eligibility should push his AAV past the $2MM mark, perhaps even to the $3MM range.  Katchouk and Entwistle don’t have quite the offensive upside and are more depth players up to this point.  They will also have arbitration eligibility next summer which could work against them if we have a repeat of a run of non-tenders like we did this offseason.

Zaitsev was another player Chicago was paid to take on with him coming over midseason from Ottawa, paving the way for them to complete the Jakob Chychrun trade.  Zaitsev never has been able to live up to this contract but can log some minutes on a largely inexperienced back end so he’ll provide some value to the Blackhawks.  His next deal should check in closer to the $1MM mark though.  Tinordi came over as a waiver claim in training camp and wound up earning a regular role when he was healthy, landing this extension in the process.  It’s a bit above what his market value might have been in free agency though.

Mrazek is yet another contract Chicago was compensated to take on.  He actually posted a better save percentage than he had in his lone year in Toronto but still had a rough season.  On a better team, Mrazek could still attract some NHL interest next summer but at a price tag that’s closer to the $1.5MM mark.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Andreas Athanasiou ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Ryan Donato ($2MM, UFA)
F Taylor Hall ($6MM, UFA)
F Philipp Kurashev ($2.25MM, RFA)
G Arvid Soderblom ($963K, RFA)

This summer was a good time for teams with cap space to acquire impact players for cheap simply by taking on the full freight of the contract.  Chicago did that with Hall as Boston needed to move him to create cap room to fill out their roster.  His days of being a productive top liner are pretty much finished now based on how the last few years have gone for him but he’s someone who can play big minutes while giving Bedard a legitimate top-six linemate.  In a perfect world, Hall’s numbers go up playing alongside Bedard, giving the Blackhawks a chance to flip him in his final year while giving Hall a shot at getting close to this type of money on the open market.

Chicago handed Athanasiou this deal to get him to avoid testing free agency.  As is the case with Perry and Foligno, it’s an above-market pact but with ample cap space, it’s an overpayment they can afford.  After putting up 20 goals and 20 assists last season, he’ll need to maintain or improve on those numbers if he wants to get a similar-sized contract in 2025.  Kurashev was awarded this contract in arbitration coming off a career year that saw him get 25 points.  Playing time will be a bit harder to come by now with their extra depth so he’ll need to find a way to improve on those numbers in a lesser role to avoid the risk of being a non-tender candidate in 2025.  Donato’s per-60 numbers are pretty impressive but he has yet to lock down a full-time middle-six role.  He should get another chance to do so here and if he thrives, he could have a much stronger market as a more proven secondary scorer.

Soderblom had some ups and downs in his limited action with the Blackhawks last season, earning him a one-way deal in the process.  He’s perceived as a goalie of the future though not necessarily the goalie of the future for Chicago.  This bridge contract gives both sides a chance to see if he’s a future starter, platoon option, or if he’s better off as a pure backup and obviously, which category he falls in will determine his next contract, one that will come with arbitration rights.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Connor Murphy ($4.4MM, UFA)

At a time when stay-at-home defenders are starting to lose some of their open-market value, Murphy has been one of the exceptions.  He has logged heavy minutes throughout his time with Chicago but in a ten-year career, he has yet to reach the 20-point mark.  Coupled with plenty of bumps and bruises from his style of play, it seems unlikely that Murphy will be able to command this type of deal in three years when he might be better suited for a more limited role on a depth chart.

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Signed Through 2026-27 Or Longer

D Seth Jones ($9.5MM through 2029-30)

Former GM Stan Bowman paid a heavy price to get Jones, both in terms of what it cost to acquire him from Columbus and what it costs on this contract.  With GM Kyle Davidson coming in soon after and tearing down the roster, the move looks even worse.  That said, Jones hasn’t performed poorly with the Blackhawks by any means and he is a legitimate top-pairing defenseman.  However, having a player like that on a team that isn’t set up to try to compete for a couple more years at least isn’t necessarily the most ideal while his contract is too high to try to move for anything resembling top value, especially in the current cap market.  Accordingly, Jones will be a key fixture on Chicago’s back end for the long haul.

Buyouts

F Henrik Borgstrom ($183K in 2023-24)
F Brett Connolly ($1.17MM in 2023-24)
F Josh Bailey ($2.67MM in 2023-24, $1.17MM in 2024-25)

Retained Salary Transactions

D Jake McCabe ($2MM through 2024-25)

Salary Cap Recapture

D Duncan Keith ($1.93MM in 2023-24)

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Raddysh
Worst Value: Jones

Looking Ahead

Gone are the days of Chicago being right against the salary cap.  Well, for now, at least.  As a result of their sell-off over the last couple of years, the Blackhawks are closer to the Lower Limit than the Upper Limit, giving them all sorts of flexibility for the upcoming season if they decide they want to take on a contract for a future asset or become a third-party broker closer to the trade deadline even after factoring in the potential bonuses being reached.

Eventually, this will change, potentially with what many expect to be a significant second contract for Bedard.  Within the next couple of years, it’s likely that Davidson will be looking to build up the roster again and at that point, they’re probably going to go back to being a cap-spending squad.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Chicago Blackhawks| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2023

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Arizona Coyotes

August 31, 2023 at 7:53 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Arizona Coyotes

Current Cap Hit: $79,596,310 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Logan Cooley (three years, $950K)
F Dylan Guenther (two years, $894K)
D J.J. Moser (one year, $887K)
D Victor Soderstrom (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses:
Cooley: $3.5MM
Guenther: $850K
Soderstrom: $850K
Total: $5.2MM

Cooley’s contract came as a bit of a surprise this summer since he had originally indicated that he planned to return to the University of Minnesota for his sophomore year.  The 2022 third-overall pick is likely to have a fair-sized role right away and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him on the top line before long.  While it’s way too early to forecast his second deal, the market is pretty well-defined when it comes to signing impact middlemen off their entry-level pacts.  Start with an eight (especially when the cap is higher in three years) and go from there.

Guenther burned the first season of his ELC last season but notably, was sent back to junior before he accrued a season of service time toward UFA eligibility (meaning he still has seven years of club control).  At this point, it seems likely that he’ll be a regular this season but unless he winds up in a prominent role quickly, the safer bet here is that he winds up with a bridge contract.

The same can be said for Soderstrom who is looking to establish himself as a full-time regular.  If that happens, he should be able to command an AAV just past the $1MM mark on a one-way deal.  Otherwise, a one-year contract around his $874K qualifying offer could be coming his way.  As for Moser, he has quickly played his way into a top-four role, pretty impressive for someone who was a late second-round pick two years ago.  He doesn’t really fit the profile of the type of player who makes sense for a long-term agreement at this point but a bridge pact in the $3MM AAV range should be achievable.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

D Josh Brown ($1.275MM, UFA)
F Travis Boyd ($1.75MM, UFA)
D Travis Dermott ($800K, UFA)
D Mathew Dumba ($3.9MM, UFA)
D Sean Durzi ($1.7MM, RFA)
F Barrett Hayton ($1.775MM, RFA)
F Bryan Little ($5.292MM, UFA)
F Liam O’Brien ($775K, UFA)
D Troy Stecher ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Juuso Valimaki ($1MM, RFA)
F Jakub Voracek ($8.25MM, UFA)
F Jason Zucker ($5.3MM, UFA)

Let’s get the easy two out of the way first.  Voracek (who was quietly acquired at the trade deadline last season) and Little remain injured and won’t play in 2023-24.  They will be LTIR-eligible if Arizona runs into enough injury trouble this season that requires them to create some extra cap flexibility.

Zucker had a nice bounce-back campaign last season with Pittsburgh.  He was healthy for the most part and the end result was him playing with some consistency and posting the second-best goal total of his career with 27.  That didn’t yield the long-term deal he was hoping for this summer, however.  Assuming he’s able to have a repeat performance in 2023-24, Zucker should be able to push for a similar price tag next summer while getting a shot at a multi-year agreement.

Hayton is one of Arizona’s more interesting expiring contracts.  The 23-year-old didn’t exactly light it up on his entry-level deal, resulting in a two-year bridge pact.  Last season, he worked his way up to the top line and put up by far his best season, notching 19 goals and 43 points.  A repeat performance could push his AAV into the $4MM range.  But with Cooley signing, there’s a good chance that he will cut into Hayton’s minutes which could hamper his production next season somewhat and cut into the price tag of that next contract.  Had Cooley stayed in college and Hayton remained relatively unimpeded on the top line, his projection could have been more favorable than it seems like it will be now.  Either way though, he appears to be part of the future plans for the Coyotes, something that wasn’t guaranteed to be the case a couple of years ago.

While Boyd has played a much bigger role in the last two years than he did beforehand, he has shown himself to be a capable secondary scorer.  In the 2022 summer, he didn’t have enough of a track record to command a big raise.  But if he has another year like these last two, he could push for a price tag north of $3MM on his next deal.   O’Brien, meanwhile, saw regular action for really the first time last year, putting up his best numbers.  But his role in the lineup is typically one that teams will want to spend the minimum or close to it to fill.  Unless he can show a bit more offensively, it’s hard to see his next contract reaching the $1MM mark.

If you were reading the list of expiring deals and thought to yourself that there were a lot of defensemen on there, you weren’t wrong.  Between these contracts and the two entry-level ones, all of Arizona’s defenders are in the final year of their deals.  That’s a situation that doesn’t present itself very often league-wide.

Dumba struggled last season in his final year with Minnesota which undoubtedly hurt his market this summer.  Once the dust settled on the Erik Karlsson trade, he quickly settled for this agreement, one that is for less than he was probably seeking.  However, it gives him a chance to play a much more prominent role, one that could land him a fair bit more (perhaps in the $5MM range many expected this time around) next summer if things go well.  Durzi is in a similar situation as instead of being a player sitting fairly low on the depth chart in Los Angeles, he will have a chance to play more minutes and produce more.  He’s already likely to land a fair bit more than his $2MM qualifier next summer; it’s possible that he could double that if he can push his point output past 40.

Brown and Stecher are in similar spots in their careers.  Both are third-pairing players and the market hasn’t been kind to those players in recent years.  Brown might be hard-pressed to make what he’s getting now unless he can play his way up the depth chart while Stecher’s value is pretty well established considering he signed this deal just under two months ago.  Valimaki opted to sign early last season, foregoing a higher qualifying offer in exchange for some guaranteed money and a longer look.  Considering how he finished last season, he left some money on the table.  If he can even come close to putting up 34 points again while maintaining a similar role on the depth chart, he could push for something in the $3MM range as well.  Now healthy, Dermott will be looking to re-establish himself as an NHL regular but unless he can lock down a full-time spot, his next contract is likely to be below the $1MM mark as well.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Nick Bjugstad ($2.1MM, UFA)
F Michael Carcone ($775K, UFA)
F Alexander Kerfoot ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Jack McBain ($1.6MM, RFA)
G Karel Vejmelka ($2.725MM, UFA)

Kerfoot spent the last four seasons primarily in Toronto’s middle six, spending time both on the wing and at center.  He goes to Arizona on a contract that pays him the same money and will likely result in him playing the same role.  He’ll need to establish himself as more of a full-time top-six forward if he wants to command a sizable raise in 2025.  Bjugstad returned to the desert after being moved as a rental at the trade deadline.  He took a cheap one-year deal last summer to get an opportunity to play a bigger role and made the most of it.  If he can stay on the third line, they’ll get a good return here but if he winds up on the fourth more often than not, he’ll have a hard time beating this next time out.

McBain (who took a dollar less than the AAV listed above) had a good rookie year, providing plenty of physicality with a bit of scoring from the bottom six.  This deal gives both sides more time to evaluate to see if he can be a full-time third-liner which would position him to add a million (more if the offense really picks up) in 2025.  Carcone has been a minor leaguer for most of his career but a strong showing at the Worlds landed him this one-way commitment and what should be a chance to carve out a full-time roster spot which will go a long way toward determining his future.

At the time Vejmelka signed this contract (which was still in his rookie season), his name was in trade speculation.  Since then, not much has really changed.  The 27-year-old has helped keep things respectable at a time when winning was pretty low on the priority list but it remains to be seen if he’s going to be part of Arizona’s long-term plans.  If he puts up numbers like his first two seasons over these next two, his market value isn’t going to be much higher than this.  If he happens to be moved onto a team looking for more short-term success and takes a step forward, however, then he could shoot toward the top tier of the backup market.  Assuming the cap jumps up, that could push him to the $4MM range.

Signed Through 2025-26

G Connor Ingram ($1.95MM, UFA)
F Matias Maccelli ($3.425MM, RFA)
F Nick Schmaltz ($5.85MM, UFA)
D Shea Weber ($7.857MM, UFA)

Again, let’s get the injured player out of the way first.  Weber hasn’t played since the 2021 Stanley Cup Final when he was with Montreal and he isn’t expected to play again.  He’s LTIR-eligible as well if Arizona needs to open up more cap room.

Schmaltz has averaged just shy of a point per game in each of the last two seasons, albeit years that he missed nearly a quarter of the campaign due to injuries.  He has shifted to playing on the wing much more often, a move that has suited him so far.  The issue for Arizona is the back-loaded nature of the contract.  For a team that is trying to keep salary costs down, Schmaltz being owed $24.45MM in money over these next three seasons stands out considerably.  From a cap perspective, he’s a nice bargain if he continues to produce at this level.  But with the salary situation, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Coyotes at least assess what the trade market might be for the 27-year-old.

Maccelli was a nice surprise for the Coyotes last season.  After having a very limited impact in 22 games in 2021-22, he wound up finishing third on the team in scoring with 49 points, making the All-Rookie Team, and finishing fourth in Calder Trophy voting for Rookie of the Year.  Considering the small sample size of NHL success, Arizona opted for the bridge contract.  If the 22-year-old can build on those numbers, he could add a couple million or more with the benefit of arbitration eligibility at that time.

Ingram’s debut in the desert didn’t go to well as he struggled mightily in his first eight games.  After that, however, he posted a .921 SV% in his final 19 appearances, a number that is well above average.  That has warranted him a longer look and if he’s able to continue playing anywhere close to that level, he’ll be a nice bargain for Arizona.

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Signed Through 2026-27 Or Longer

F Lawson Crouse ($4.3MM through 2026-27)
F Clayton Keller ($7.15MM through 2027-28)

Keller is coming off a stellar campaign, one that saw him blast past his previous career highs in goals, assists, and points, putting up 37, 49, and 86 respectively.  The open market rate for players with that type of production is at least a couple million higher now and likely will be more as the cap goes up, making him quite a bargain.  That is, as long as he stays at that level.  If Keller reverts back to a mid-60s point total, it won’t be a bad contract by any stretch but there won’t be a ton of surplus value either.  Crouse is benefitting from the power forward premium that saw him land this contract despite never producing more than 34 points at the time.  However, he also set new benchmarks last season and if he can maintain a 20-plus goal, 40-plus point average, this contract will hold up quite well compared to other power forwards around the league.

Buyouts

F Zack Kassian ($1.67MM in 2023-24, $767K in 2024-25)
D Patrik Nemeth ($167K in 2023-24, $1.17MM in 2024-25)

Retained Salary Transactions

D Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($20K in 2023-24, $320K in 2024-25, $650K in 2025-26 and 2026-27, $290K from 2027-28 through 2030-31)

(Because Vancouver bought out Ekman-Larsson’s contract, Arizona’s cap charge was reduced but the retained salary slot will now last double the remaining length of his original deal.)

Still To Sign

F Jan Jenik – Jenik has made it known that he wouldn’t mind a trade in the hopes of securing a better NHL opportunity.  He had a decent showing in the minors last season with 23 points in 30 games but has just 17 NHL games under his belt where he has four goals and an assist.  Wherever he winds up, he’s likely looking at a cheap one-year deal at or close to the NHL minimum of $775K.

Best Value: Valimaki
Worst Value: Kerfoot

Looking Ahead

With plenty of cap space and really no bad contracts on the roster (Kerfoot’s deal isn’t bad value by any stretch; they just don’t have any overt overpayments to speak of), the salary cap won’t be an issue for the Coyotes anytime soon.  They may need to dip into LTIR if injuries strike which could put them at a small risk for a possible bonus overage penalty for 2024-25 but since they’re not expected to be trying to contend for a playoff spot at that time, any carryover charge wouldn’t materially affect the plans.  There will come a time when Arizona needs to pony up to keep its very young core intact but that’s still a few years away.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pro Hockey Rumors Originals| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2023| Utah Mammoth

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