Debunking Klefbom’s Comments On Hall
As reported earlier today, Edmonton Oilers defenseman Oscar Klefbom had some interesting (and somewhat unfounded) remarks about former teammate Taylor Hall when asked about the blockbuster trade earlier this summer that sent Hall to the New Jersey Devils for a potential new defensive pair mate for Klefbom, Adam Larsson. As translated from Kelfbom’s native Swedish, he stated that “Taylor has been our best player in recent years, but it’s also hard to tell what he has contributed. He never played his best games against the tougher teams, when we really needed it. However, he was fantastic when we met the little inferior teams.” That is a lot to take in, as Klefbom both praised and criticized the 2010 first overall pick, who had been met with mostly praise and little criticism during his time in Edmonton. While it’s easy to take a teammate’s word when it comes to the analysis of a player, that’s not always fair. Instead, we have numbers. Take a look at each of Klefbom’s arguments from a statistical point of view:
“Taylor has been our best player in recent years” is hardly up for debate. Hall was taken #1 in the 2010 NHL Entry draft and stepped right into a top six role as the new face of the Oilers. In his rookie year, he led Edmonton in goals with 22 and was tied for second in points with 42, just one notch behind Jordan Eberle. In 2011-12, Hall again finished behind only Eberle, recording 53 points in 61 games. The lockout-shortened 2012-13 season proved to be the breakout campaign that Hall needed to assert himself as the best player on the Oilers and an elite NHL power forward. In 45 games, Hall scored better than a point per game, leading the team with 50 points, 12 points more than Sam Gagner in second and 13 more than Eberle in third. Hall continued to produce at more than a point per game clip in 2013-14, with 80 points in 75 games, good enough for sixth in the NHL in scoring. Meanwhile in Edmonton, only Eberle was able to finish within 20 points of Hall. Hall suffered his first career setback in 2014-15, as injuries limited him to just 53 games and 38 points. Astoundingly, 38 points was all he needed to finish third on the team in points, behind Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He got back on track last season, leading the team in points with 65, and greatly improving his defensive game and physicality with career highs in hits, blocked shots, and penalty minutes. Six straight seasons of finishing in at least the top three in scoring in Edmonton and even finishing in the top ten in scoring in the NHL twice means that there is no question that Taylor Hall has been the Oilers’ best player in recent years.
“It’s hard to tell what he has contributed” and “he was fantastic (against) inferior teams” are two statements that can only be taken with a grain of salt. The numbers clearly show what Hall has contributed to the Oilers in his first six seasons, but Klefbom is not incorrect in implying that those contributions have not been enough to change the success of the team. The highest that Edmonton has finished in the NHL league standings since drafting Hall is 24th, and that was the lockout-shortened season. It was also Hall’s best per-game season to date, so there may actually be some correlation there that proves Klefbom wrong. Other than that though, the Oilers finished last in Hall’s rookie year in 2010-11, have two second-to-last (29th) finishes, and have two third-to-last (28th) finishes. The fact is that as good as Hall has been, it has not been enough to single-handedly right the ship in Edmonton. Did anyone expect him to do so? Hall was the first of four first overall draft picks that the Oilers have had in the past seven years, and only now does one of those players, Connor McDavid, actually have the pieces around him to maybe turn the franchise around. Hall entered a situation where even as a rookie, he was hands down the best player on the team, and no talent was ever brought in that could rival his. Had the Oilers taken Tyler Seguin (selected #2 in 2010) instead of Hall, the results likely would have been the same in Edmonton, and Hall would likely be a valued piece of the Boston Bruins’ core. Questioning what Hall has contributed because his strong numbers have not made the Oilers a playoff team is more of a commentary on the ineptitude of team ownership and management than anything.
As for “inferior teams” during Hall’s tenure in Edmonton: there are none. Oscar Klefbom entered the league in 2013-14 and since then could have only seen Hall and the Oilers play against four “inferior teams”: the Buffalo Sabres in 2013-14 and 2014-15, the Florida Panthers in 2013-14, the Arizona Coyotes in 2014-15, and Toronto Maple Leafs in 2015-16. However, if you total the points of all 30 NHL teams in the six years that Hall has been playing, no organization has been “inferior” to the Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton has only 380 points during that time span, 40 less than the next-worst, the Sabres. In fact, only nine teams have been less than 100 points better than the Oilers since the start of the 2010-11 season. So in reality, nearly any team that Klefbom claims Taylor Hall has played “fantastic” against has been a superior team to his own.
Finally, there is the allegation that Hall “never played his best games against the tougher teams, when we really needed it.” Unfortunately for Klefbom and the Oilers, every team has been “tougher” for years now and they haven’t “needed” a win in the traditional sense of a playoff contender in a long time. However, if Klefbom’s belief that Hall does not play to the same level against playoff-caliber teams as he does against others holds weight, than that is a legitimate concern about Hall and a fair assessment by Klefbom, rather than just an insult hurled by a scorned ex-teammate. But that is simply not the case. Pittsburgh, Chicago, St. Louis, Boston, Anaheim, the New York Rangers, Washington, San Jose, Los Angeles, Detroit, Vancouver, and Tampa Bay make up the top dozen NHL teams in total points since Hall’s playing days began in 2010. Against those twelve teams, Hall has 135 career points in 175 career games, better than .75 points per game. If you take away a lack of success against some unfamiliar Eastern conference foes in the Bruins and Capitals, that rate jumps up to over .8 points per game. Counter to Klefbom’s assumptions, Hall has actually been dominant against some of the league’s best teams like the Blackhawks (22 points in 18 games), Sharks (20 points in 22 games), and the division rival Canucks (26 points in 29 games). While he has also been wildly successful against lesser teams like the Colorado Avalanche and Calgary Flames, there seems to be no noticeable drop-off in production over the course of Hall’s career between “good” teams and “bad” teams.
Klefbom has never been known to be outspoken or a locker room problem, and his comments may have been lost in translation or simply just misguided by emotion. Regardless, the positive remarks about Hall being the best player in Edmonton ring true, while the accusations that he plays poorly against stronger competition and better against weaker competition seem to be unfounded based on his scoring numbers. Sorry Oilers fans, Taylor Hall is still an amazing player, and will likely continue to excel in his new home with the New Jersey Devils.
Avs, Barrie Agree To New Deal
After all of the speculation surrounding the “contentious” relationship between the Colorado Avalanche and defenseman Tyson Barrie and the drama of the summer’s only arbitration decision, it seems as thought the two sides were able to agree to a deal just in time. Elliotte Friedman reports that Barrie has re-signed with Colorado, before the arbitration decision was handed down, for four years and $22MM.
The $5.5MM cap hit that the new extension carries falls, as expected, in the middle of the competing offers made to the arbitrator. The Avalanche had asked for a two-year contract worth $8.25MM ($4.125MM cap hit), while Barrie’s camp countered with a one year and $6MM. The eventual compromise falls closer the value that Barrie was hoping for, and based on a trend of preferential treatment towards players in NHL arbitration, is likely close to what would have been awarded. Instead of waiting for the one or two year arbitration deal and risking having to give Barrie another raise soon, the Avalanche were instead smart to finally agree to a new deal for a longer term.
The $5.5MM cap hit is in no way over-payment by Colorado. Having just turned 25, Barrie has put together three straight seasons of strong offensive production at a young age. He can be counted on for double-digit goals and 40+ assists each season and has not had any durability issues despite a modest 5’10” 190-lb. frame. The $5-$6MM is just the going rate for small, fast, puck-moving defenseman, as evidenced by Barrie and the earlier deals this summer handed out to Torey Krug ($5.25MM) and Alex Goligoski ($5.475). The signing puts the Avalanche less than a million dollars from the $73MM salary cap limit, but with a full roster and no more restricted free agents to sign, it seems as though Colorado should be ready to go for the 2016-17 season without much worry about the cap.
What could have been an ugly situation in Denver has been avoided, as both sides should be happy with the extension and looking forward to four more years of production. If Barrie continue to put up 50-odd points a season from the blue line, the Avalanche will never regret giving in to the deal they signed today.
Cost Per Point: The Best Value Deals In The NHL
Each and every one of us is looking to maximize our value in life. You’re constantly on the lookout for the “best bang for your buck”, whether it be buying a new car, getting a good deal on groceries, or for hockey fans, maybe a new pair of skates or an NHL Network subscription. Such is life, and it is no different for front office executives around the league. The assets that they deal in are player contracts, and they fail or succeed by how much production they can squeeze out of each player while staying under the salary cap limit or a team-imposed budget. While you cannot really quantify the entire production of any hockey player, the best metric to analyze value is simply dollars spent per point. This shows you just how valuable a player is compared to their contract, by displaying their offensive production as a function of their contract.
The benchmark for this metric is about $100K/point, as GM’s expect those big-time forwards and offensive defenseman who they award with $6MM, $7MM, and $8MM per year contracts to be putting up 60, 70, or 80 points respectively. Last season, some of the league’s best players like Patrice Bergeron, Vladamir Tarasenko and Oliver Ekman-Larsson came in right around that mark. It also is a fair assessment for energy line players, aging veterans and entry-level players, whose deals are often under $1MM, leaving teams ecstatic when those players can become major point producers even though they are only expected to contribute few points. With this benchmark in mind, you’ll be astounded by some of the best value deals in the NHL in 2015-16.
Value is the reason why teams love impact rookies and All-Star caliber young players, and no entry-level deal payed off more last season than Calder Trophy winner Artemi Panarin. Skating alongside two of the game’s greats, Panarin put up 77 points in his first NHL season, while playing with an $812.5K cap hit. That comes out to a league-best $10,552/point, almost ten times greater than the average rate. Even better news for Chicago: they still have one year left of that deal. The only entry-level player with more points than Panarin last season was Johnny Gaudreau, who scored 78 points at a rate of $11,859/per point (3rd best in the NHL), and the Calgary Flames are surely finding out this off-season that you pay for past value in that second contract. This is also the case for the 2nd-best value in the league, Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov, who scored only 66 points, but at an entry-level price tag of $712K and now finds himself in line for a big raise. In fact, the entire top ten and 37 of the top 50 cost/point leaders were on entry-level contracts last season, and many of those players, such as Vincent Trocheck (#4), Filip Forsberg (#5), Mark Scheifele (#6), and Victor Rask (#7), will all see their value decrease in the first year of expensive new extensions. Young players joining Panarin in continuing to be hockey’s “best bang for your buck” in 2016-17 are 2015 top picks Connor McDavid (#17) and Jack Eichel (#11), as well as Coyotes teammates Max Domi (#12) and Anthony Duclair (#14) and surprise rookie sensation Shayne Gostisbehere (#19).
There can still be value found in veteran players, however. Year after year, it seems that Lee Stempniak is always one of those players, as the veteran journeyman consistently outplays the modest contracts he is given. In 2015-16, Stempniak was the 13th best value in the league (#1 among standard contracts) at less than $17K/point, as he had 51 points playing on a one-year, $850K deal. He even provided additional value to the New Jersey Devils in the form of 2nd-round and 4th-round picks that they acquired from the Bruins when they traded Stempniak at the deadline. His teammate in Boston, Ryan Spooner, was second among standard-contract players, scoring 49 points in the first year of a two-year bridge deal with the Bruins that carries a cap hit of $950K. Expect Spooner to be back in the top 20 again next season. And of course who could forget Matt Cullen who, at 39, was often referred to as the best value in hockey last season, as his 32 points playing on a veteran’s contract of $800K was a big piece of the puzzle for the Pittsburgh Penguins as they marched to a Stanley Cup championship.
With the good comes the bad, and for every great young player or surprise veteran that provides their club with great value, there are overpaid players who don’t perform or role players who never seem to find their role there to bring them down. In 2015-16, no player epitomized a lack of value like Tuomo Ruutu. Once a consistent two-way player capable of producing 30 to 50 points per season, the wheels had completely fallen off of the wagon for Ruutu well before entering the final season of a four-year, $19MM contract. In 33 games with Devils, Ruutu had just one assist (and was a -7) for a cost/point ratio of his entire cap hit, $4.75MM. Not to be outdone, Florida’s Garrett Wilson did not record a single point in 29 contests for the Panthers, thus producing an incalculable value metric, which is hard to swallow even for a player with a $675K cap hit. Tom Gilbert and Boyd Gordon are two more who struggled mightily to provide scoring value to their teams in 2015-16.
While statistics and analytics in hockey are normally geared toward displaying on-ice production, it is always interesting to look at the game from a business perspective. It is important for teams and fans alike to understand not just the absolute of how a player is producing, but the relative value of that production based on how much money that player is being paid. In a salary cap league, there is nothing more important that production value, and as the game grows the focus will only further tighten on scoring as a function of dollars and the cost per point metric. For more reading, check out the complete list of players at CapFriendly.com.
Jaedon Descheneau: David Desharnais 2.0?
The Bakersfield Condors, the AHL affiliate of the Edmonton Oilers, announced today that they have signed free agent forward Jaedon Descheneau. While he may not be a household name just yet, Descheneau is certainly a player for hockey fans to keep an eye on and could soon turn his AHL contract into an NHL gig in Edmonton.
Descheneau was originally a fifth round pick of the St. Louis Blues in 2014, selected after his second season for the Kootenay Ice of the WHL in which he scored a career-best 44 goals and had 98 points in just 77 games. The following season he had 81 points to bring his three-year total to 257 points in 209 games. However, he missed all but two games of the 2015-16 campaign after suffering a shoulder injury that required season-ending surgery. At just 5’9″, Desheneau has received a lot of criticism and doubt due to his stature. Adding into the mix a serious injury, the Blues made the decision not to extend the young scorer an entry-level contract, making him a free agent.
The Condors have now capitalized on his unexpected availability and have added a proven sniper to their roster. In his junior days, Descheneau showed a consistent scoring punch, finishing second only to super-prospect Sam Reinhardt in team scoring in 2013-14 and finished sixth in the entire WHL in scoring in 2014-15. He has also shown that he is capable of a two-way game, always finishing on the plus side in his three full seasons in Kootenay and not letting his size hinder his play in the physical WHL.
If Descheneau can get healthy and add some size and strength to a short, slim frame, the Condors (and by association the Oilers) may have found a diamond in the rough in a young player with offensive instincts and scoring talent. An undersized prospect getting his start with an AHL contract and then developing into a reliable NHL contributor is not unheard of; just ask David Desharnais. A dynamic player in the QMJHL, Desharnais was ultimately still written off because of his 5’7″ stature and went undrafted. After proving himself with the Canadiens’ AHL affiliate, he joined the big league club and the rest is history. That scenario does not seem far off for Descheneau and the Oilers. Don’t let his humble beginnings fool you; Jaedon Descheneau has all of the makings of a dark horse NHL star.
Wild Re-Sign Matt Dumba
The Minnesota Wild announced today that they have re-upped restricted free agent defenseman Matt Dumba to a two-year, $5.1MM contract. The young blue liner, who just turned 22 a few days ago, is already entering his fourth year in the NHL and had a career high 26 points last season.
The two-year extension, which pays Dumba $2.35MM is 2016-17 and $2.75MM in 2017-18 for a cap hit of $2.55, for all intents and purposes is a textbook bridge deal. Rather than agreeing to a long-term, expensive extension, which has become the norm around the league, the sides have agreed to a further evaluation period at a reasonable salary. If Dumba continues to develop into the top-pairing defenseman he has been projected as, then he will cash in big after this new contract expires. However, the Wild mitigate some risk giving Dumba a short-term deal that will still leave him as a restricted free agent at its conclusion, rather than committing to a long-term deal at a much higher price for an asset that they are still evaluating.
The signing of Dumba signals the likely end of any further off-season moves for Minnesota. While Dumba’s name, as well as the names of fellow defenseman Jonas Brodin and Marco Scandella, have been tossed around as rumored trade candidates, the Wild seem to be set going into the season with a full roster that is under the salary cap and has the makings of a playoff team.
The contract could also set the bar for many other unsigned restricted free agents whose teams would prefer bridge deals over long-term commitments. Examples include Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba, Ottawa’s Cody Ceci, and Anaheim’s Hampus Lindholm. With Dumba now extended and off of the market, the trade stock of those players will also increase. Keep an eye on that trio as the regular season continues to get closer and closer.
Over The Cap: Detroit Red Wings
After agreeing to a new two-year, $8MM contract with young net minder Petr Mrazek minutes before his scheduled arbitration hearing this morning and handing out six-year, $30MM deal to defenseman Danny DeKeyser yesterday, the Detroit Red Wings are in over their heads, quite literally, in regards to the NHL salary cap.
Accounting for the two new added cap hits for Mrazek and DeKeyser, $4MM and $5MM respectively, the Red Wings are now approximately $5MM over the salary cap limit of $73MM. Once the season begins, this burden can be relieved by placing Johan Franzen, whose career is all but over due to concussions, and Joe Vitale, who was recently acquired from the Arizona Coyotes, but won’t be ready to start the season as he also struggles with post-concussion syndrome, on Long-Term Injured Reserve. The pair combine for a cap hit of just over $5MM, which will be subtracted once they are placed on LTIR, bringing Detroit back down to the cap limit. However, the question still remains whether the Red Wings can get to that point through just roster manipulation or if they lack the flexibility to do so and must move a roster player.
General Manager Ken Holland has reiterated multiple times that he does not see the salary cap as being a problem and does not expect his hand to be forced into any unwanted trades. However, the numbers seem to tell another story. While Franzen and Vitale remain on the roster, the Red Wings must remove at least $5MM in salary through sending two-way contracts down to the AHL. While young star Dylan Larkin may be waivers-exempt, others like Luke Glendening, Tomas Jurco, or Teemu Pulkkinen may be exposed in order to open up cap space. For this reason, it seems likely that Detroit will instead look to make a trade. The team has a lot of forward depth, but has been looking for a top-pair defenseman, and is also greatly lacking in right-shooting forwards, with just Glendening and Pulkinen (making waivers even more dangerous) and Thomas Vanek as of now. If they can acquire one of those two needs while also gaining cap space, then Holland will be able to call this off-season a success. However, if he is handcuffed and forced to dump a player like Jimmy Howard or Gustav Nyquist (both rumored trade targets) simply for cap relief, then the contracts given to the likes of DeKeyser and Darren Helm, as well as the infamous Stephen Weiss buyout will come under even more scrutiny.
Ken Holland is a veteran GM, fully capable of making some roster magic happen, but he seems to have dug himself into a hole that roster management might not be enough to get him out of. One way or another, the Red Wings will be a team to watch for the remainder of the summer, as something has to give in their salary cap battle.
Coyotes Notes: Rieder, Stone, National TV
It’s beginning to look like the Arizona Coyotes and restricted free agent winger Tobias Rieder have reached an impasse in contract negotiations. Dhiren Mahiban reports that it is growing more and more likely that the young German forward will spend this next season playing in the KHL, rather than agreeing to a new contract with the Coyotes.
Rieder, who had 14 goals and 23 assists in 2015-16 while playing in all 82 games for Arizona, plays a very complete game at just 23 years old. His numbers are very similar to those of Vladislav Namestnikov (35 points in 80 games last season), a young forward who was just awarded a new contract by the Tampa Bay Lightning that pays him a little under $2MM per season, and the Coyotes would like to pay Rieder somewhere in that arena as well. However, Rieder believes he is worth significantly more, reportedly asking for $4MM per season. While Rieder is probably a better hockey player than Namestnikov right now, it seems as though the Coyotes are balking at a value that is worth more than twice that of a comparable young player. As a restricted free agent that is not yet arbitration-eligible, Rieder’s only leverage is to sign elsewhere, leading to the speculation that he could receive his desired contract from a KHL club for 2016-17. The Coyotes, who qualified the young RFA, would continue to hold onto his NHL rights, but would definitely feel the loss of a crucial cog in their rebuilding team. Likewise, Rieder may get the money he wants, but will be playing outside the world’s best hockey league and would still be Coyotes property should he return. Rieder departing the desert to go overseas does not really solve any problems. While this conclusion seems very likely, it is far from mutually beneficial.
In other Arizona news:
- Rieder is not the only RFA that the Coyotes still have to worry about, as defenseman Michael Stone is one of just three remaining unsettled arbitration cases league-wide, and is scheduled to go in front of the arbitrator on August 4th. Stone’s case is a tough one, as he scored a career high 36 points last season, only one point less than new teammate Alex Goligoski, who the Coyotes signed to a long-term deal worth nearly $5.5MM per year, but is still developing his defensive game. Add in that he suffered a serious knee injury which he is currently rehabbing from, and a fair market value is tough to nail down. While the figures submitted to the arbitrator by both sides have not yet surfaced, expect Stone to ask for a comparable contract to Goligoski and expect the Coyotes to offer far less. Given that 22 of 25 scheduled salary arbitration cases have been settled prior to their deadlines, it seems likely that the two sides will agree to terms somewhere in the ballpark of $4-4.5MM per season on a short bridge deal.
- However, if arbitration does occur and the arbitrator awards Stone with a one or two year deal that the Coyotes are uncomfortable with, it is very likely that his name could hit the trade rumor mill. Arizona has more than enough cap space, but may not want to commit too much of their budget in the short-term to a defenseman coming off a serious injury. A right-shot, puck-moving defenseman who is just 26 years old would be very attractive to many teams, regardless of an injury. For the Coyotes though, they have depth on the right side of the blue line with fellow RFA Connor Murphy, Zbynek Michalek, and the recently signed Luke Schenn. Should the return for Stone be sufficient to new GM John Chayka, Stone’s arbitration case may just end up shipping him out of town.
- As AZCentral’s Sarah McLellan reports, the Coyotes will play just one nationally televised game in 2016-17. That of course could increase, especially if the team makes the playoffs, but as of right now it stands as a disappointing total for an upstart team. One game is the minimum that each team must have covered nationally, but the Coyotes are not a team deserving of minimal coverage. Although Arizona may not be the biggest hockey market, it has been highlighted recently as the birthplace of #1 overall pick Auston Matthews and is now home to two pro teams, as the Coyotes moved their AHL franchise to Tuscon and re-named it the Roadrunners. The Coyotes have one of the top prospect systems in the NHL and should be a fun team to watch with a lot of great young talent. National audiences will unfortunately miss out on much of the action, but be sure to tune in to their November 1st tilt against the San Jose Sharks on NBC Sports.
Di Pauli To Test Free Agency
While everyone has been hyper focused on the impending free agency of Jimmy Vesey, it seems as though another impact college player is set to become a free agent as well on August 15th. Craig Custance reports today that 2012 Washington Capitals fourth rounder Thomas Di Pauli will not sign with the team before the deadline and will become an unrestricted free agent, capable of signing an entry-level contract with any team in the league.
Di Pauli, a small but sure-handed forward from the University of Notre Dame will try his luck at finding the best fit for his set of skills, and as Craig Custance reports, that could end up being the Capitals. Talks have been on-going, but they will likely not reach a timely conclusion. It is possible that the Capitals fast-paced, skilled style is not a fit for Di Pauli though, who is known more for his two-way ability and hard-working, high-energy approach. He did start to find his offensive game in his senior year though, scoring 32 points in 37 games playing alongside highly-touted Bruins prospect Anders Bjork. Di Pauli is also a talented face-off man, though he can play both center and wing.
Di Pauli’s case will definitely not get the attention of Vesey’s, who is expected to jump in and be an impact player right away at the NHL level. However, Di Pauli does have the potential to draw similar attention to defenseman Mike Reilly, who last summer spurned the Columbus Blue Jackets for free agency, drew plenty of attention before signing with the Minnesota Wild, but then only played in 29 games and scored only seven points. Reilly was recruited not for his immediate ability, but for his potential. He is expected to have a greater role for the Wild in 2016-17. Similarly, Di Pauli may not be ready to adjust from the NCAA to the NHL right away, but his solid two-way game, hockey sense, and hard-working attitude will be attractive to many teams lacking energy line depth or face-off ability down the middle. If his offensive game continues to develop at the AHL level, he could see the NHL this season and could turn into a reliable bottom-nine player.
Current Trade Candidates (Part Two)
Now almost a month into free agency, the NHL off-season is nearing a point where the flow of transactions, once a raging river of signings during the first few days of July, will slow down to only a trickle. A few notable unrestricted free agents remain unsigned, a handful of young restricted free agents are set to still be extended, and arbitration cases continue to be settled prior to their hearings, though perhaps one of two will come to fruition. However, the days of big signings are over; all remaining deals handed out will either be expected, in the case of RFA’s, or underwhelming, for the UFA’s lucky enough to even find a new home. So what off-season excitement is left for hockey fans to follow? The trade market. August often brings a change of mindset for many NHL front office executives, from adding free agents before someone else scoops them up, to instead subtracting from the current roster as the season nears and cap space, depth, and even character concerns become more clear and focused as opening night approaches. We’ve already touched on the talented and troubled Evander Kane, the inevitable move of Marc-Andre Fleury, and the cap-strapped Red Wings. The following players are a few more who have had their names floated around the trade market all summer, and the next few weeks could bring a change of scenery to one or more:
Valterri Filppula, Tampa Bay Lightning
Given the salary cap crunch of the Lightning, as well as their talent and depth up front, and in particular down the middle, Filppula seems like a very “tradeable” player. With nearly $8.5MM in cap space still available, it seems like the Bolts shouldn’t be too panicked about their situation, right? Wrong. Still to be signed by Tampa are young forwards Nikita Kucherov and Vladislav Namestnikov, as well as arbitration-bound defenseman Nikita Nesterov. One side effect of having a great young core of players is the struggle to re-sign them, and this off-season, sacrifices must be made. Kucherov alone should command between $5-$6MM or more per season (depending on the length of the deal) and Namestnikov and Nesterov easily combine to go way over the remaining few million in cap space. Unless the Lightning make the bold choice to move one of these restricted free agents, a veteran will have to be moved off the team, and it will be someone that carries a decent cap hit. Enter Filppula, who at 32 can still produce and plays a solid two-way game. A contender with ample space or a young team in need of some veteran leadership and defensive stability up front could both use his services, unless the $5MM price tag is too much for them. He presents the Lightning’s best chance at relieving their cap troubles without significantly effecting the team, but they must first convince someone that the price for Filppula is worth it, as trading him and holding on to contract dollars makes no sense. Filppula will continue to hear his name batted around the rumor mill, and if a team falls in love with him like Tampa Bay did, he could be on his way elsewhere for 2016-17.
Braydon Coburn, Tampa Bay Lightning
If the Lightning are unable to move Filppula and unwilling to move any other forwards, they would turn next to the defense, where Coburn is the prime trade candidate. Although Jason Garrison represents the least value for production on defense, with only 11 points last season despite being pegged as an offensive defenseman, other teams can see that as well. Garrison and his $4.6MM cap hit are essentially untradeable. Coburn on the other hand, is a reliable stay-at-home defenseman, who may not be a perfect fit in Tampa but has great value on the market. The Bolts would risk losing arguably their strongest defensive player if they choose to move Coburn, but they would also get plenty in return and his departure would allow younger defenseman like Nesterov, Andrej Sustr, and Slater Koekkoek to have guaranteed playing time all season long. The goal for any team that is up against the cap is to gain the space and flexibilty necessary while reducing the negative impact on the team. While Filpulla and Garrison would hurt the Lightning less, Tampa Bay may be forced to move Coburn and suffer the consequences because he is easier to trade than the other two and would give the team $3.7MM in space that they desperately need.
Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay Lightning
Bishop, of course, is the crown jewel of Tampa’s trade candidates. As one of, if not the best goalie in the NHL, it would be hard to find a team that wouldn’t be at least somewhat interested in acquiring him. He will be an unrestricted free agent after this season, but could be appealing as both a relatively cheap one-year rental at $5.9MM or a steal for a team willing and able to give him a long-term extension worth somewhere in the arena of eight years and $64M before they have to battle it out in free agency. Either scenario will likely draw interest from the Dallas Stars, who we’ve already connected to both Jimmy Howard and Marc-Andre Fleury, but who have shown special interest in Bishop. While the Lightning don’t necessarily have to get rid of the likes of Filppula or Coburn, they do have to eventually say goodbye to Bishop, as they can’t keep both he and the recently-extended Andrei Vasilevskiy through next summer’s expansion draft. The only question that remains is whether Tampa Bay wants to hold on to Bishop for one last run at the Cup with him in net and then let him walk in free agency, or trade him away and get a very impressive haul in exchange from Dallas or another interested team. The Bishop trade winds will not be dying down any time soon.
Nail Yakupov, Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers have already traded one past first overall pick this off-season, but don’t be shocked if another moves on. Yakupov has not come anywhere close to reaching the playing level of former teammate Taylor Hall, but still holds some trade value despite his “bust” label. Still just 22 years old, the former Sarnia Sting star who was taken #1 in 2012 has seemingly gotten worse and worse every year since his rookie season. That year he had 31 points in 48 games, not to shabby for a rookie, but has since followed it with two mid-twenties point totals in sixty-odd game seasons in 2013-14 and 2015-16, sandwiched around only 33 points and a -35 rating in 81 games in 2014-15. A change of scenery seems imperative for Yakupov at this point, as he has not found a fit in Edmonton, and the Oilers would be smart to trade him while he still has any value left and not fall victim to a sunk cost. Yakupov trade rumors have been non-stop for years, but expect this season to finally be the one where the former Russian prodigy moves on to hopefully greener pastures.
Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche
D-needy teams across the NHL are waiting for this trade rumor to become a reality. Barrie, who has developed into an elite puck-moving defenseman with great offensive ability, has been a bargain for the Avs over the past two seasons at just $2.6MM. Now that it has become time to pay the man, he has instead been met with incessant trade chatter. There are questions as to whether coach Patrick Roy sees him as a top-pairing caliber defenseman worth the $5-$5.5MM per year that he is worth on the open market, not to mention that Colorado has only about $7MM dollars in cap space and a deal of that size would leave their cap flexibility greatly restricted. However, the Avalanche are also not very deep on defense, having already traded away solid contributor Nick Holden, and especially on the right side have no one other than Barrie and Erik Johnson who can play major NHL minutes. Of every trade rumor listed today, Colorado would likely be the most ill-advised to trade the rumored player. $5MM is the going rate for a defenseman like Barrie right now, and the Avs would be smart to just lock him up. If they instead choose to trade him, it will make another team very happy and the impact of the loss will be felt in Denver.
Current Trade Candidates (Part One)
Now almost a month into free agency, the NHL off-season is nearing a point where the flow of transactions, once a raging river of signings during the first few days of July, will slow down to only a trickle. A few notable unrestricted free agents remain unsigned, a handful of young restricted free agents are set to still be extended, and arbitration cases continue to be settled prior to their hearings, though perhaps one of two will come to fruition. However, the days of big signings are over; all remaining deals handed out will either be expected, in the case of RFA’s, or underwhelming, for the UFA’s lucky enough to even find a new home. So what off-season excitement is left for hockey fans to follow? The trade market. August often brings a change of mindset for many NHL front office executives, from adding free agents before someone else scoops them up, to instead subtracting from the current roster as the season nears and cap space, depth, and even character concerns become more clear and focused as opening night approaches. The following players have had their names floated around the trade market all summer, and the next few weeks could bring a change of scenery to one or more:
The case of Evander Kane is different than many others on this list. If he is moved by the Sabres, it is not out of necessity due to cap constraints or a glut of depth at left wing, it is because they simply want him gone. The young power forward was recently charged with criminal trespass and harassment stemming from his role in an altercation at a local Buffalo nightclub. This is now his second run-in with the law during his short tenure in Buffalo, as he was just recently cleared of charges involving accusations of sexual misconduct by a young woman back in December. With his 0ff-ice behavior becoming a consistent and growing concern for the Sabres organization, trade speculation has run rampant. Buffalo would certainly like to have Kane’s on-ice production over the next two seasons, but they also have to weigh the risk of his troublesome actions becoming a distraction or interfering with his play during that time as well. If they wait to pull the trigger on a trade, and more incidents occur, this newest allegation grows more serious, or his production is impacted by his extracurricular issues, than the return for Buffalo will also be negatively effected. Also, if the Sabres decide to stick with him throughout his legal issues, potential suspensions and all, they still run the risk that their investment will not pay out, as Kane can still leave as a free agent in 2018. While nearly half of the league could probably find the space to add a great talent like Kane to their top six forward group, they all have to weigh these same risks. Expect the trade talk to continue, especially if teams feel that Kane simply needs a change of scenery, and don’t be surprised to see Kane wearing a different jersey in the next year. Any jersey would be better than an orange jumpsuit, as the hockey world can all join in hoping that a great young talent like Kane can sort out his off-ice issues and get back to focusing on his NHL career.
Jimmy Howard, Detroit Red Wings
Howard is the first of several goalies on this list, and realistically only one of them is likely to be moved before the season begins, if any at all. Detroit is in trouble with the salary cap, having just awarded Danny DeKeyser with a new contract that carries a $5MM cap hit and still working out a new contract with Howard’s heir, Petr Mrazek, who is also looking for $5MM a season. Even if the two sides are able to agree to a deal that keeps Mrazek at about $3MM or so for next season, the signing will effectively put Detroit over the salary cap limit of $73MM. Johan Franzen will be put on Long-Term Injured Reserve as soon as possible, erasing his nearly $4MM cap hit, but the Red Wings must be cap compliant before then. If GM Ken Holland can find away to squeeze his roster in under the cap using his two-way contracts and other roster management magic, then maybe Howard or other could be spared. However, if that is not possible, expect Howard to be the main focus of a trade. The 32-year-old Howard and his 2.80 GAA and .906 save percentage were soundly supplanted by the 34-year-old Mrazek, who posted a 2.33 GAA and .921 save percentage in 13 more games during the regular season. Howard now is just an expensive backup at over $5MM. While there is value in keeping the former starter on board, both for depth and for expansion draft purposes, when push comes to shove for cap compliance, an expensive backup is an easy trade chip. However, there may only be one real suitor for Howard, as well as any starting-caliber goalie on the market, and that is the Dallas Stars, whose tandem of Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi didn’t quite get the job done last year, despite having a combined cap hit of $10.4MM. The problem this presents to a cap-strapped team like Detroit, is that they would have to take one of the two back in return, and even if Dallas held on to a portion of either contract, it might not provide the Red Wings with the space they need. Howard’s name will continue to come up, but he seems more likely to be traded during season when new suitors start to arrive, or perhaps not dealt at all.
Gustav Nyquist, Detroit Red Wings
If the Red Wings cannot move Howard and are getting desperate as the deadline approaches for cap compliance and there’s no tricks up Ken Holland’s sleeve, it seems like Nyquist could be the next man up on the chopping block. The college hockey star from the University of Maine was once considered untouchable in Detroit, after he lit the hockey world on fire in 2013-14 when he scored 48 points in 57 games in his first full NHL campaign. However, relative to his recent production of nearly a point per game in 2013-14 at the age of 24, and even his 54 points in a full 82 games in 2014-15, Nyquist layed an egg this past season with just 43 points and only about half of the goals of each of his prior two seasons. The worst part was that he did so in the first year of a new four-year, $19MM contract. Now Nyquist, who will turn 27 in September, is far from untouchable and is likely the leading trade candidate among a deep forward group in Detroit due to his financial burden relative to his production. The Red Wings would surely prefer not to trade him if they don’t have to, but they can rest assured that if he is truly put on the market, teams will line up for his services and the return will be more than satisfactory.
Marc-Andre Fleury, Pittsburgh Penguins
Another goalie who could be on the move is Marc-Andre Fleury. After being surprisingly overtaken by the young playoff hero, Matt Murray, everyone and their grandmother seems to know that Fleury’s time is up in Pittsburgh. With an expansion draft looming, there is no way that the Penguins allow Murray to be left unprotected, which means that Fleury (whose No-Movement Clause makes him automatically protected, and teams can only protect one goalie) must go. GM Jim Rutherford has already said that he is happy with the two goalie situation and plans on having both when the season starts. However, the true intentions of the veteran executive are transparent, and the words are simply a farce that are likely meant to simply keep the morale of the former-All-Star starter up. Whether Rutherford truly plans to keep Fleury for the start of the season or not does not hide the fact that he does not plan to keep Fleury until the end of the season. Some way, somehow, it seems as close to a sure thing as a trade can be that Marc-Andre Fleury will be traded. Again, Dallas appears to be the lone suitor for a starter right now and the Penguins are no better off with the salary cap than the Red Wings, which causes confusion in making any potential deal regarding Niemi or Lehtonen. However, even if the Penguins are able to re-sign Matt Cullen, their roster has the flexibility to allow them to be cap compliant before putting Pascal Dupuis‘ $3.75MM cap hit on LTIR. So, the Penguins both don’t have to trade Fleury before the season and also are able to trade Fleury before the season. One thing is certain, he will be traded soon enough.