Offseason Checklist: Dallas Stars
The offseason has arrived for all but the two teams who are still taking part in the playoffs. For the rest, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at the Stars.
A quiet 2023 offseason outside of the addition of Matt Duchene yielded the same results for the Stars – a Western Conference Final elimination. Improvement from their budding stars like Wyatt Johnston and a true breakout season on the blue line from Thomas Harley helped Dallas reach 113 points in the regular season, their second-most in franchise history. They’re already facing one significant loss heading into next season, though, with veteran fixture Joe Pavelski expected to retire. Accordingly, it’s likely another summer of minor surgery for general manager Jim Nill, coming off his second Jim Gregory GM of the Year Award.
Fill A Top-Six Forward Spot
At first glance, this doesn’t seem like a pressing team for a Stars offense that finished third in the NHL last season. But Pavelski and Duchene, who’s a pending UFA, were big parts of that, contributing 52 goals and 132 points between the two of them. They can’t lose both and expect to still be the team they were this season. While the production of one could be replaced by continued improvement from Johnston or strong rookie campaigns from Mavrik Bourque and Logan Stankoven, asking them to offset the loss of both is a tough ask to put on the young future of your franchise.
There’s an easy way to check this box – re-up Duchene, who was more than effective for his $3MM cap hit. He’ll earn a slight raise on it this offseason, but there’s mutual interest in an extension, and he’s expressed a willingness to take a discount on his market value to stay in Dallas. It certainly helps that he’s still receiving $1.56MM per year from the Predators, who bought out the final three seasons of his prior contract last summer, through 2028-29.
In case they can’t keep Duchene from going to market, though, they’ll need to find somebody who can slot into a top-six spot on the right wing, preferably for under $5MM a season against the cap. Even at 32, Tyler Seguin still has enough juice in the tank to comfortably handle a top-six role, especially if the center responsibilities are being dedicated to Johnston and Roope Hintz. They will need an upgrade on someone like Evgenii Dadonov, though, who currently projects as their second-line RW but had only 23 points in 51 games this year. If they do need to hit the free agent market for a Duchene replacement, someone like Anthony Duclair, Anthony Mantha or Vladimir Tarasenko could be an appropriately priced option.
Start Oettinger Extension Talks
Things have been a tad up-and-down for Jake Oettinger since he took over the Dallas crease from Anton Khudobin in 2021, but a good playoff showing has him back to being a largely consensus top-ten netminder in the league. Even at his worst, he’s a slightly above-average goalie, evidenced by his career-low .905 SV% this season. Injuries were a bit of a concern, limiting him to 53 starts, but at his peak, he’s a game-altering talent.
He’s shown it multiple times, whether it be his .919 SV% and 37-11-11 record in 2022-23 that earned him fifth place in Vezina Trophy voting or his .954 SV% in a seven-game loss to the Flames in the first round in 2022 that has gone down as one of the better netminding performances in a series loss in league history. He’s worth shelling out for among a current crop of goalies that, aside from the very few elite, tend to have real stinker seasons at least every once in a while.
Now, as he enters the final season of a respectable three-year, $4MM AAV bridge deal, Nill needs to decide how far he’s willing to go on a long-term deal for his star netminder. If he gets it done early this summer – a realistic scenario given his otherwise light free-agent workload – it could come in a tad north of $8MM annually on a long-year deal. That’s a lower percentage of the cap than recent long-term deals for more highly-regarded netminders like Connor Hellebuyck and Ilya Sorokin and a good bit below what it’s expected to take for the Rangers to retain Igor Shesterkin.
New Deal For Harley
While the Stars have only a few impact UFAs to deal with, the list is even smaller for impact RFAs. Only two saw consistent playing time in the playoffs, and only one was deployed in high-usage situations – Thomas Harley.
The 22-year-old isn’t eligible for arbitration but is due a significant raise coming off his entry-level contract. Drafted 18th overall in 2019, Harley dethroned Ryan Suter for top-pairing duties alongside Miro Heiskanen early in the season and never looked back. He finished the campaign with 15 goals and 47 points in 79 games, finishing second among Dallas defenders in average time on ice with 21:01. His possession game with Heiskanen was strong, controlling 55.6% of shot attempts when on the ice at even strength.
He’s a core piece of their team and could very well serve as Heiskanen’s partner for the next decade if their results together this season are any indication. With the Stars in a bit of a cap crunch, though, expect them to opt for a bridge deal while they load up in a continued effort to make their second Stanley Cup Final appearance of the decade. Evolving Hockey pegs his new contract at a two-year term with an AAV close to $4MM, a safe bet for positive value considering his showing this year.
Add RD Depth
The Stars still have Esa Lindell and Suter signed next season behind Harley, so their left side is likely already locked in. But behind Heiskanen, who’s a lefty playing the right side anyway, there’s a lot of uncertainty.
Like Duchene, Nill is expected to make a big push to keep trade deadline acquisition Chris Tanev from heading to market next week. He was stellar in a second-pairing shutdown role alongside Lindell, controlling play well and posting two assists and a +7 rating in 19 playoff games. Even if he comes back, though, there’s a tossup behind him.
Jani Hakanpää is a cheap candidate to re-sign, but he provides much of the same services as Tanev and would likely be ruled expendable if the latter is extended. Nils Lundkvist had 13 points in 59 regular-season games but struggled early in postseason action and was a frequent healthy scratch in the later rounds. It’s fair to assume he won’t be relied upon for much of anything by head coach Peter DeBoer if he’s qualified and brought back next season. Lian Bichsel, while a strong prospect who could challenge for a roster spot out of camp, is also a lefty. Asking him to play his off side, even alongside a veteran like Suter, is an irresponsible ask.
That makes it clear that, even outside of Tanev, adding a right-shot defender will be a priority for Nill when the UFA market opens on July 1.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Kings Sign Samuel Fagemo To One-Year Extension
4:50 p.m.: It’s a two-way deal for Fagemo, per PuckPedia. It carries an AHL salary of $375K with a $425K guarantee.
3:07 p.m.: The Kings have signed winger Samuel Fagemo to a one-year extension worth $775K, per a team release.
Fagemo, 24, was a second-round pick of Los Angeles in 2019 but is already on his second stint with the team. After failing to land a spot on their opening night roster last fall, he was waived and subsequently claimed by the Predators.
His stint in Nashville was nothing to write home about, recording one goal in four games while playing fourth-line minutes. He was waived again by the Preds in November, upon which he was picked up again by the Kings. Since L.A. was the only team to submit a claim, he was assigned directly to the AHL’s Ontario Reign.
Fagemo only saw brief call-up action the rest of the way with the Kings, but he was one of the best players in the AHL this season with the Reign. The Swedish sniper lit the lamp 43 times in just 50 games, finishing with 62 points and a +10 rating. He finished tied for 10th in the league in points outright, and his 1.24 points per game were the most among skaters with at least 20 appearances. However, he didn’t manage to get on the scoresheet in four games with Los Angeles after being re-acquired.
However, after his showing with the Reign, the risk of losing him on waivers again in October is sky-high. With Viktor Arvidsson and Trevor Lewis heading for free agency next month and Pierre-Luc Dubois out of the picture after being traded to the Capitals, there’s more than enough opportunity for Fagemo to snag a spot out of camp, potentially on a scoring-oriented third line.
Fagemo would have had arbitration rights had he reached restricted free agency next week. He’ll have them again upon his extension’s expiry.
Bruins Sign Brandon Bussi To Two-Way Extension
The Bruins announced Monday that they’ve signed depth netminder Brandon Bussi to a one-year, two-way deal covering next season. It carries a cap hit of $775K salary, and he’ll earn $225K in the minors with a $275K guarantee, per PuckPedia.
Bussi, 25, has served as their third-string netminder for the past two seasons. He’s been recalled under emergency conditions a handful of times but has yet to make his NHL debut.
An undrafted free agent signing out of Western Michigan University in 2022, the 6’4″ Bussi has provided good value for the Bruins’ AHL affiliate in Providence. He was electric last season and earned AHL All-Rookie Team honors with a sparkling 22-5-4 record, .924 SV% and 2.40 GAA in 32 games, although he regressed somewhat to a .913 SV% and 2.67 GAA in 41 appearances this year. It was still a solid showing for the New York native, who’s aggressively knocking on the door for NHL time.
For now, though, he’s expected to remain in the starter’s crease for the P-Bruins to open next season. Even if the Bruins move on from Linus Ullmark via trade, they’ll likely replace his spot with a goalie coming back the other way or via a free-agent signing. A two-way extension for Bussi doesn’t exude confidence that they envision him as the backup to Jeremy Swayman entering 2024-25.
One complicating factor is that, for the first time, Bussi will require waivers to head to Providence if he doesn’t crack the NHL roster out of training camp. After a pair of strong seasons with the P-Bruins, there’s a decent chance he’d be claimed.
Devils Re-Sign Nick DeSimone To One-Year Deal
The Devils have re-signed defenseman Nick DeSimone to a one-year, one-way contract, per a team announcement Monday. It’s worth the league minimum salary of $775K.
DeSimone, 29, was headed for the UFA market next week. Instead, he’ll stay in New Jersey, which claimed him off waivers from the Flames in late January. This is the first one-way contract of his career.
Given his small role with the Devils, it was doubtful if general manager Tom Fitzgerald would offer him an extension, especially a one-way commitment. He was scratched more than he played, only skating in 11 of New Jersey’s 37 contests after his acquisition. DeSimone was serviceable when iced, though, posting a goal and an assist while controlling 48.4% of shot attempts when on the ice at even strength. He averaged 16:29 per game in a Devils uniform.
The minor-league veteran has only 38 NHL games to his name, 34 of which came this season. Across his stints with Calgary and New Jersey over the past two years, he’s totaled two goals and five assists without being a defensive liability in bottom-pairing minutes. He’s long been a strong puck-moving option in the AHL, totaling 38 goals and 138 assists for 176 points in 341 games in the Flames, Golden Knights and Sharks organizations.
In fact, most of his time under NHL contract has been spent with San Jose, where he signed as an undrafted free agent out of Union College in 2017. However, he never saw NHL ice during his four years collecting a paycheck from them.
A one-way deal indicates DeSimone has an inside track to start next season as the Devils’ seventh defenseman, although he’ll likely face competition for the role from the younger Santeri Hatakka. Their top six on defense is mostly solidified, with Dougie Hamilton, Luke Hughes, John Marino, Simon Nemec and Jonas Siegenthaler all guaranteed spots, plus a UFA signing to replace Kevin Bahl, who was traded to the Flames in last week’s Jacob Markström deal.
With DeSimone in the NHL, the Devils are down to $15.27MM in projected cap space with a roster size of 16, per CapFriendly. He’ll be a UFA upon expiry.
Atlantic Notes: Heinen, Okposo, Husso
Talks have begun in Boston on an extension for pending UFA forward Danton Heinen, who 98.5 The Sports Hub’s Ty Anderson writes prefers to stay with the Bruins.
It’s been quite a ride over the past 12 months for the 28-year-old, whose second stint in Boston appears to have revitalized his career. After failing to land a contract on the open market last summer, he settled for a professional tryout agreement with the Bruins that turned into a league-minimum agreement in late October after general manager Don Sweeney opened up the required cap space. He responded with 36 points in 74 games, his highest offensive output since his 47-point rookie campaign with Boston back in 2017-18.
Heinen often earned looks higher up in the lineup and logged most of his ice time this season on a line with David Pastrňák and Pavel Zacha. He’ll see his name on our Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents list coming out later this week, and whether it’s in Boston or elsewhere, he’ll likely earn a significant raise on his expiring $775K cap hit.
Some other rumblings from the Atlantic Division:
- Kyle Okposo will draw back into the lineup for the Panthers for tonight’s (literally) winner-take-all Cup Final game against the Oilers, head coach Paul Maurice said (via the team’s Jameson Olive). Okposo was scratched in their Game 6 loss after a tough Game 5 showing, but his replacement, Nick Cousins, didn’t have much of an impact in his first appearance since Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Final. Acquired from the Sabres before the trade deadline, the 36-year-old Okposo has two assists in 16 playoff games for the Cats while averaging 8:36 per game. If Florida avoids making history by blowing a 3-0 series lead in the Final tonight, they’ll incur a $500K cap overage penalty next season without the space to accommodate Okposo’s performance bonus for winning the Cup, CapFriendly points out.
- Continuing his look at potential trade candidates this summer with uncomfortably high cap hits, The Athletic’s Harman Dayal mentions Red Wings netminder Ville Husso as someone to watch. The 6’3″ Finn missed more than half of the season with lower-body injuries and wasn’t particularly good when in the lineup, posting a career-worst .892 SV% and 3.55 GAA in 19 appearances. He hasn’t performed up to expectations overall since inking a three-year, $4.75MM AAV deal with Detroit in 2022, coming off a campaign with the Blues that earned him seventh place in Vezina voting. Husso has a 10-team no-trade list.
Central Notes: Blues Draft Plans, Faksa, Glass
The Blues had the best record among non-playoff teams this season, giving them the right to draft 16th overall in three days. Speaking to the team’s Chris Pinkert, general manager Doug Armstrong said he’s unlikely to shop the pick for more NHL-ready talent.
There’s obviously some attractive players (in this draft). When you pick No. 10, there’s nine great guys. When you pick No. 16, there’s 15 great guys and when you pick No. 28, there’s 27 great guys. So it’s just going to be fluctuating based on who is available, whether we move up or whether we move back to gain an extra asset. I don’t see us picking at No. 16 to improve our team today, but that being said, if there is somebody in a (younger) age bracket that I see a longer-term vision, we’ll do that… but I see it more of a selection type of draft for us.
If Armstrong does leverage 16th overall to move up in the draft, it likely won’t be more than a few spots. “So let’s say you want to get to pick eight, nine, 10 or 11, I think that’s doable,” he said. “It’s painful, but I have to get the threshold of pain we’re willing to take as an organization (to make that deal).”
It’s a lighter draft at the top end for St. Louis, which had three first-rounders in 2023. They selected Slovak center Dalibor Dvorský 10th overall, Swedish center Otto Stenberg 25th overall and Swedish left-shot defenseman Theo Lindstein 29th overall, all of whom have since signed their entry-level contracts.
More from the Central:
- In his latest for The Athletic, Harman Dayal names Stars center Radek Faksa as a cap-casualty trade candidate this summer. Faksa, 30, remains a strong shutdown pivot and has yielded good possession numbers the past two seasons after a disastrous 2021-22 campaign. He’s been a limited offensive talent for the last few years, though, and doesn’t appear close to discovering his early-season 30-point form. He had seven goals and 19 points in 74 games this season, tough to swallow for his $3.25MM cap hit. Faksa is entering the final season of his deal and has a five-team no-trade list, per CapFriendly.
- Dayal, in the same piece, also listed Predators center Cody Glass as a cap-related trade chip. The sixth overall pick of the 2017 draft by the Golden Knights is now 25 years old, and his tenure with Nashville after a 2021 trade has been tumultuous. He looked like a potential long-term top-nine fixture after a breakout 2022-23 campaign but regressed to only six goals and 13 points in 41 matches during an injury-plagued 2023-24. The Winnipeg native is entering the back half of a two-year, $2.5MM AAV deal and will be an RFA with arbitration rights next summer.
Wild Notes: Mermis, Johansson, Eiserman
Most of the Wild’s roster will be back next season. Only a select few players who ended the season with the team are free agents, and none of them were consistently in the lineup.
At least one of those expiring depth players won’t be back next season, though. That will be veteran depth defenseman Dakota Mermis, who will head elsewhere searching for a one-way contract, The Athletic’s Michael Russo reports.
Set to hit unrestricted free agency for the third time next week, the 30-year-old Mermis played a career-high 47 games in 2023-24. It was his seventh season seeing NHL time, serving as a top-four minor-league option with depth recall potential for the Coyotes, Devils and Wild since making his debut in the 2017-18 season.
An undrafted free agent signing by Arizona in 2015, 64% of Mermis’ NHL experience came this season. He cleared waivers to begin the campaign and wasn’t on the opening night roster, beginning the season with AHL Iowa, but was recalled a week later with injuries affecting the Minnesota blue line and was shuffled between leagues over the next two months.
Mermis then remained in the NHL for the balance of the season after a recall on Dec. 14. He averaged 14:15 per game for the Wild, adding three goals and eight points with a -2 rating. He’s not the biggest frame in the world (6’0″, 195 lbs) but plays a physical game and has plenty of leadership experience in the AHL, where he’s served as a captain for two seasons and an alternate captain for four.
The Illinois native’s possession numbers were solid, controlling 49.5% of shot attempts and 47.9% of expected goals at even strength, per Hockey Reference. After logging minor-league time in eight of his nine professional seasons, he’ll look to land a full-time NHL look, likely as a team’s extra defender.
Elsewhere out of the State of Hockey:
- Forward Marcus Johansson could be a trade candidate this summer with the Wild looking to optimize their limited cap space, posits Harman Dayal of The Athletic. The 14-year veteran has one season left on his contract at an only mildly consequential $2MM cap hit, but he struggled last season with 11 goals, 30 points and a -15 rating in 78 games while again averaging over 15 minutes per game. However, he holds a full no-trade clause that significantly complicates any potential move. Entering the summer, the Wild do have $6.25MM in projected cap space with a nearly full roster size of 19, per CapFriendly.
- The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler and FloHockey’s Chris Peters spoke to The Athletic’s Joe Smith about options for the Wild with their no. 13 overall pick in this week’s draft. U.S. National Team Development Program goal-scoring record-breaker Cole Eiserman, who we mocked to Minnesota in our 2024 Mock Draft, was among the players discussed.
Lightning Sign Gage Goncalves To Two-Way Extension
The Lightning have re-upped forward Gage Goncalves on a two-way deal for 2024-25, the team announced. The deal carries a $775K cap hit and pays him a $100K minors salary with $125K guaranteed, per PuckPedia.
Goncalves, 23, is coming off an All-Star campaign in the minors. The 2020 second-round pick now looks like he’s one of the better playmakers in the Tampa Bay system, notching 45 assists and 58 points in 69 games this year to lead the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch in scoring. He added a goal and five assists in seven playoff games to end his season.
He has a pair of NHL games under his belt, both coming during a brief mid-January call-up this season. The 6’0″ center was shifted to the wing and was used sparingly by head coach Jon Cooper, though, averaging 9:58 per contest. He didn’t manage a shot on goal but did have two hits. The Lightning controlled 52.2% of shot attempts in Goncalves’ brief time on ice at even strength.
Goncalves will more likely than not start next season in Syracuse, but he’ll be a name to watch as training camp progresses in the fall. Even if he doesn’t make the team, he’s on an upward trajectory and should be considered for more NHL recalls in 2024-25.
The British Columbia native was slated for restricted free agency this summer. He wasn’t arbitration-eligible this time around, but he will be when his extension expires in 2025.
Senators Sign Jamieson Rees To Two-Way Extension
The Senators announced a one-year, two-way contract extension for center prospect Jamieson Rees today. Per the team, the deal pays him $775K in the NHL and $85K in the AHL.
It’s a good sign for Rees’ future in the Sens organization for him to avoid being non-tendered and reaching unrestricted free agency at the end of the month. The 23-year-old is coming off an incredibly trying season split between three AHL clubs, going without a goal and registering only eight assists in 51 appearances.
A second-round pick of the Hurricanes in 2019, Rees was on an upward trajectory as recently as last season when he recorded a career-high 14 goals and 42 points in 65 games for the AHL’s Chicago Wolves. However, his development was derailed by Carolina’s lack of an AHL affiliate this season. He began the campaign on loan to AHL Springfield, the primary affiliate of the Blues, where he received little ice time and was limited to three assists in 30 games with a -3 rating.
The Canes briefly found a new home for him on the Panthers’ farm club in Charlotte, but he played only seven games there before he was traded to Ottawa for a sixth-round pick in March. He finished the season on a slightly higher note, posting four assists in 14 games with AHL Bellville, his best rate of production all season long.
Rees will be back with the B-Sens next season as he looks to rebound to a level of production more representative of a top-six minor league forward. The Ontario native will be a restricted free agent upon expiry.
Predators Hire Darby Hendrickson As Assistant Coach
The Predators are close to announcing Darby Hendrickson as their newest assistant coach, reports Minnesota’s FOX 9 Sports. The Predators later announced that the longtime Wild coach and player will reunite with former Minnesota teammate Andrew Brunette behind the Nashville bench.
Hendrickson and Brunette spent parts of three seasons together with the Wild shortly after their inception, including one of the great Cinderella runs of the decade when they advanced to the 2003 Western Conference Final. The Twin Cities native began his coaching career as an assistant with the Wild in 2010, a role he held under multiple head coaches until being fired last month.
The Preds didn’t say which responsibilities would fall under Hendrickson’s purview. He held a variety of different roles during his time in Minnesota. General manager Barry Trotz had this to say on Hendrickson’s addition:
After spending more than a decade as a professional player, he has now been a quality coach in the NHL for a long time and further strengthens our staff’s ability to communicate and teach the game at a high level. His familiarity with Andrew Brunette – having been both teammates and coaches together in the past – adds to the cohesiveness of our group, and his experience as an NHL player and coach makes him very relatable to today’s player. With Darby now on our staff, our coaches own more than 2,200 combined games of NHL playing experience, something we feel is incredibly valuable for our team’s growth as we strive to achieve our goal of winning the Stanley Cup.
Hendrickson also worked with Brunette on the Wild bench between 2014 and 2016. He fills out Nashville’s staff for next season alongside assistants Derek MacKenzie and Todd Richards and goalie coach Ben Vanderklok. He replaces Dan Hinote, who the team parted ways with last month after four seasons behind the Preds bench.
The Preds also announced that former defender Cody Franson is joining their amateur scouting department. Now 36, Franson retired after the 2021-22 campaign but last played in the NHL with the Blackhawks in 2017-18. A third-round pick of the Preds in 2005, Franson also spent last season in the Wild organization as an assistant coach with AHL Iowa.