Every player to file for arbitration so far this offseason has avoided a hearing, and only one case even got remotely close. That likely won’t be the case for the Maple Leafs and Nicholas Robertson, who have until their hearing starts on Sunday to settle before an arbitrator’s award will decide their fate.

Filings

Team: $1.2MM
Player: $2.25MM
Midpoint: $1.725MM

(via Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet)

The Numbers

Nothing much really changed last season for Robertson. After a trade request last summer didn’t come to fruition, he ended up inking a one-year, $875K deal to return to Toronto in hopes of landing a more consistent role in their top-nine forward group. That didn’t happen. While he did make a career-high 69 appearances, the 23-year-old’s usage remained conservative at 12 minutes per game, and his point pace dropped off from his 2023-24 performance. He finished the year with 15 goals – seventh on the team – but only seven assists for 22 points, a rate of 0.32 per game after he recorded 0.48 per game the year before in lesser minutes.

The younger brother of Stars centerpiece Jason Robertson has always been viewed as one of the higher-ceiling young offensive options in Toronto’s system. He’s shown it in flashes, but it’s clear at this stage he needs a longer leash and more minutes to truly be effective without many other elements to his game (although he did manage a career-high 79 hits last year).

Whether he’ll receive that in Toronto remains to be seen. In any event, the Leafs’ seven-figure filing is significantly higher than his $775K cap hit from 2024-25, so it’s clear they’re anticipating on him playing a slightly more regular role in 2025-26 and will presumably count on him for more depth scoring in the wake of Mitch Marner’s departure. But for a player with just over 150 career appearances, it’s going to be a tad difficult to project how a potential hearing may shake out.

2024-25 Stats: 69 GP, 15-7–22, -1 rating, 16 PIMs, 112 shots, 12:00 ATOI
Career Stats: 156 GP, 32-24–56, +2 rating, 24 PIMs, 258 shots, 11:28 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used.  The contracts below fit within those parameters.  Player salaries (or current-year equivalents) also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides.  Career stats listed are as of the time of signing.

Jonatan Berggren (Red Wings) – Berggren is a year older than Robertson and has fewer seasons of NHL experience, but they’ve both clicked at around a 30-point pace for their career in similar deployment. Like Robertson, Berggren’s platform year saw him play the most games of his career, but not with the best per-game production rate. While an imperfect science, there’s good evidence for both sides here to argue for a deal closer to the midpoint rather than an extreme swing toward either Toronto’s or the player’s filing.

Contract (2025): One year, $1.825MM AAV, 1.9 CH%
Platform Stats: 75 GP, 12-12–24, -13 rating, 14 PIMs, 88 shots, 12:59 ATOI
Career Stats: 154 GP, 29-29–58, -28 rating, 32 PIMs, 200 shots, 13:01 ATOI

Sonny Milano (Ducks) – This may be the best comparable available aside from its outdatedness. Milano was also coming off his age-23 season and, like Robertson, had five years of NHL experience despite the lower games-played total. Note the higher cap hit percentage since the deal was signed five years ago – that might be something Robertson’s camp puts on the table to get him closer to or at the $2MM mark for his award (a 2.1 CH% with a $95.5MM cap ceiling is almost exactly $2MM on the dot).

Contract (2020): Two years, $1.7MM AAV, 2.1 CH%
Platform Stats: 55 GP, 7-16–23, -7 rating, 26 PIMs, 75 shots, 13:06 ATOI
Career Stats: 125 GP, 22-25–47, -17 rating, 36 PIMs, 153 shots, 12:07 ATOI

Jack Quinn (Sabres) – Quinn comes across near the higher end of these comparables. While the perception around Quinn having a down year last season may have some truth to it, the numbers still point to him being at least a tier above Robertson in terms of what he’s actually produced. Add in Quinn’s draft pedigree as a No. 9 overall pick, and it’s easier to see why Robertson’s filing wasn’t higher than it was, although his camp may still attempt to draw comparisons to convince the arbitrator to side with them outright.

Contract (2025): Two years, $3.375MM AAV, 3.5 CH%
Platform Stats: 74 GP, 15-24–39, -18 rating, 18 PIMs, 123 shots, 14:52 ATOI
Career Stats: 178 GP, 39-58–97, -26 rating, 41 PIMs, 311 shots, 14:33 ATOI

Filip Zadina (Red Wings) – Aside from the draft pedigree, Zadina’s comparable here is also a pretty direct one. He was only one year younger than Robertson was at the time of their contract signings, but had seen more deployment to the tune of similar career offensive results with worse defensive impacts. Given the cap percentage, this would come across as a more advantageous comparable for Robertson.

Contract (2022): Three years, $1.825MM AAV, 2.2 CH%
Platform Stats: 74 GP, 10-14–24, -24 rating, 10 PIMs, 154 shots, 14:11 ATOI
Career Stats: 160 GP, 25-36–61, -46 rating, 12 PIMs, 329 shots, 15:13 ATOI

Projection

Since Robertson was the one to file and has multiple years of team control remaining, the Maple Leafs can pick a one or two-year term for his next contract after the arbitrator awards the AAV. Considering his inconsistent year-to-year pace, it stands to reason they’d pick a one-year deal to make him a more attractive trade chip if he doesn’t pan out this year (or give themselves the option to walk away entirely next summer).

The comparable contracts advocate for a deal near the midpoint but slightly in Robertson’s favor, likely in the $1.8MM-$2MM range. It may not be as much as he wanted, but it still doubles last year’s salary and will give him a seven-figure salary for the first time in his career.

Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images.