The Kraken have at least mulled the possibility of flipping pending unrestricted free agent defenseman Jamie Oleksiak ahead of next week’s deadline, as evidenced by his placement on TSN’s latest Trade Bait board released today. Oleksiak briefly appeared in trade speculation at this time last season, too, but ultimately remained in Seattle, armed with a 16-team no-trade list.
Seattle’s in a tough spot in the standings. They’re hanging onto the last wild-card spot in the West by two points. They’re in a rather crowded group, though, with only six points of separation between fifth place in the conference (Oilers, 66) and 10th (Kings, 60). They’re not in a clear position to be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline, but will likely do a little bit of both with long-term success in mind.
What’s clearer, though, is the lack of fit for Oleksiak in Seattle past this season. He’s already been forced to play a decent chunk of time on his off side due to Seattle’s excess of lefties. Of their group, Oleksiak is the only one on an expiring deal. Vince Dunn and Ryker Evans are signed through next year, while Ryan Lindgren is under contract through 2028-29.
The Kraken have strong enough playoff odds (55.8%, per MoneyPuck) that they could justify keeping Oleksiak down the stretch as an in-house rental before letting him walk in July. But even if they make the playoffs, their lowly offense will likely keep them from going anywhere. It would make sense, if there’s any interest, for Seattle to subtract Oleksiak from a position of relative strength if they can help convert his trade value into landing an impact forward.
Seattle would likely have to retain up to half of Oleksiak’s $4.6MM cap hit to make him of true interest to anyone, but that’s something they’re in a position to do with over $20MM in space by deadline day. That’s more because of his deployment, the 33-year-old is now more of a natural bottom-pairing fit after being a top-four option for several years, but he’s still provided some positive value outside of his desirable 6’7″, 252-lb frame. The Ontario-born big man has nine points and a +6 rating in 56 outings this season while featuring on the Kraken’s second penalty-killing unit. His possession numbers aren’t near the top of Seattle’s leaderboard, but don’t paint him as a liability, either, especially in primarily defensive-zone deployment. He also carries a low injury risk for a player of his size and playstyle; he hasn’t missed a contest due to an injury since November 2022.
Still, Oleksiak’s remaining trade protection is expansive enough to cause some problems. That’s just over half the league he can block a move to, but with his new club likely only being a temporary stop on his way toward free agency this summer, he may be willing to waive that protection for the right situation.
The Oleksiak situation pretty much sum up the Kraken’s predicament. They want to make the playoffs, but have to know they aren’t anything approaching a contender. I don’t see anyone offering enough for him to make it worth trading him. Even if they retain half what will they get for him? Maybe a third or fourth round pick? Might as well keep him and hope he helps you sneak into the playoffs.
Agree, but the larger problem is that if they keep trying to prioritize trying to make the playoffs, they will never be able to draft well enough to build up a real championship contender. Mariners fans know that fallacy all too well, and just drive a few hours north on I-5 and observe the sad sack Canucks to see where that takes you.
Management should be ruthless: either go hard to support a playoff run or just sell and prep for next year.
I agree with both of these takes. A lot of people I talk hockey with in Seattle dislike Oleksiak, but I just can’t get there. I know he’s a large guy and doesn’t necessarily throw the body around but he’s got super good hands and his offensive instincts are strong and responsible; those are the qualities I really appreciate about him and his game. Plus not really a defensive liability either, and he plays well on the off side. All good things. He makes the occasional mistake but he’s less a liability defensively than Dunn, Montour and Evans on most nights. I’d much rather the kraken try to trade someone like Kakko (salvage value) or Tolvanen (sell high) since the pool of quality forwards is much deeper than the D. If the kraken could find a taker for Evans, I’d particularly love that. I think keeping Oleksiak checks both boxes of going hard for a playoff push and prepping for next year and a mid-round pick would def squander that potential.
Mm, I’m with Yeasties. There are teams (hello Sabres and Wings) for whom doing anything just to make the playoffs is a must. The Kraken aren’t yet in that category. If your utmost ambition is “make it to the second round before being clobbered,” then you absolutely sell the guys who aren’t going to be around for next season. Oleksiak is in that category.
Kakko? He’s got term, and seriously, he hasn’t been playing badly: over a full 82 games he’d track to 14 goals, 30 assists, and the second highest plus-minus on the team. What’s there to “salvage?” It’s long past time to stop evaluating him as second overall and start evaluating him as he is, which is as a useful middle-six player.
Tolvanen is a guy Seattle ought to keep, but if he’s unwilling to sign an extension right now, then yeah, trade him for what they can get. I’d think they could at least get a 2nd rounder for him, and he’s worth more than that.
Their’s a knucklehead GM out there who would love an extra large traffic cone.