The Stars start the 2025-26 season as one of the top Stanley Cup contenders, featuring a strong core that still includes Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, Jake Oettinger, Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen, and Mikko Rantanen. This group has several top scorers in their prime and a goaltender ready to lead the crease for years to come. The Stars faced significant salary cap pressures this summer but mostly managed to navigate them, re-signing their key UFAs for another push. Although this summer went pretty well, salary cap concerns will likely continue to pose challenges each year, raising the question: How much longer can the Stars remain contenders for the Stanley Cup?
This year will be interesting for the Stars as they manage injuries and call-ups, given they have just over $400K in salary cap space (per PuckPedia). However, next summer, they will have nearly $28MM available with 15 players already signed. That figure suggests an opportunity for Dallas to strengthen their lineup, but a closer look at its RFAs and potential issues begins to emerge. Forwards Robertson and Mavrik Bourque are RFAs, as are Thomas Harley and Nils Lundkvist on defense. Jamie Benn is a UFA, but that shouldn’t be a significant salary to absorb even if he remains productive.
Robertson’s contract could be the most important extension for the team if he signs with Dallas at all. The 26-year-old was linked to trade rumors this summer, and since he’s only two years away from becoming a UFA, Dallas faces a tough choice. Evolving Hockey estimates that if Robertson had been an RFA this summer, his market value with the Stars would be an eight-year deal worth $10.9MM annually. If he signs with another team, that drops to $10.5MM over seven years. AFP Analytics is even more ambitious with its estimate, projecting an $11.54MM AAV on a long-term deal. There’s a chance Robertson might have a tough season, which could lower his value. But it could also go the other way, raising it. Last year, Robertson scored 35 goals and 80 points in 82 games, but he’s only two years removed from a 109-point season and will be eager to reach those offensive numbers again. If he does, that $28MM in cap space next summer will quickly seem very small.
Now, aside from Robertson, the other significant looming extension is Harley’s, and it could surpass Robertson’s depending on each player’s season. AFP Analytics projects an eight-year deal at $10.75MM annually if Harley commits long-term, which would put Dallas at around $21MM for both players, roughly $7MM under the 2026-27 salary cap, assuming no other moves are made before then.
Here’s more bad news if you’re a Stars fan. Besides being capped out, there isn’t much help coming through prospects. Dallas’s system is ranked 31st in the NHL by Scott Wheeler of The Athletic after Bourque and Logan Stankoven moved up to the NHL (with Stankoven then being dealt to the Hurricanes). It’s a 10-place drop for the Stars, highlighting a significant problem in their Stanley Cup pursuit—they’ve traded away many picks and prospects. That’s okay when you’re a contender; in fact, you should do that. But you can’t keep doing it forever, and sooner or later, you run out of pieces in the cupboard. That’s precisely what has happened to Dallas.
Now, for the final bit of bad news. Dallas also lacks significant draft pick capital. They have no first-round pick in 2026 or 2028 and are missing their second-rounder in 2028 (per PuckPedia). Again, it’s not a huge deal if you win, but as you get closer to the final stages of your contention window, it becomes tougher to compete without the tools to improve your team.
A year from now, this could all be something to look back on and laugh if Dallas wins the 2026 Stanley Cup. However, if they don’t, the Stars may start to resemble another team from the past, one with a wealth of offensive stars and solid goaltending. Some might feel it’s too soon in Dallas’s journey to say this, and maybe it is. But if the Stars aren’t successful this season in their quest for a championship, they could dangerously mirror the San Jose Sharks from the 2000s and 2010s — a team that could win a round or two regularly, had plenty of offensive talent, but couldn’t seal the deal, leading to a painful rebuild that they are hoping to soon emerge from.
Despite the negative tone of the article, the Stars aren’t finished yet and should be able to compete for the next two to three years while their core remains in their prime. The favourable tax situation, along with great weather and a terrific team, should continue to attract free agents willing to accept less money than they might elsewhere, and could also motivate some of the Stars’ current players to take a pay cut to stay on a competitive team in Dallas.
Photo by Jerome Miron-Imagn Images