All signs point to the Minnesota Wild signing All-Star winger Kirill Kaprizov to a massive extension this summer. Recent reports suggest that the Wild will likely sign Kaprizov to an eight-year, $120MM contract. This deal would surpass Leon Draisaitl’s contract for the league’s highest average annual value (AAV). Still, it would fall $4MM short of Alex Ovechkin’s record for the largest contract ever signed in the NHL. This raises the question: Is Kaprizov worth such a significant investment?
Unfortunately, Kaprizov is coming off the worst season of his career thanks to injuries. He finished the campaign with 41 games played in the regular season, and another six in the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs. Although he missed half the season, he scored 25 goals in 56 games, finishing third on the team in scoring and 16th in Hart Memorial Trophy voting.
Finishing that high in team-scoring for a playoff team while losing half the year to injuries is a testament to Kaprizov’s value. Since joining Minnesota for the 2020-21 NHL season, he’s scored 185 goals and 386 points in 319 games, far and away the highest on the team over that stretch.
Kaprizov’s contract demands ultimately come down to one equation. Assuming he’s signed to the $15MM figure, Minnesota must ask if he’s worth 14.4% of their cap for the 2026-27 season, and even less throughout the subsequent years.
It’s a fairly easy equation to sort through. Over the past five years, Kaprizov has been directly involved in 386 goals scored by the Wild. To understand his impact, we can analyze his point contribution to the total number of goals the entire team has scored during that period.
Since Kaprizov began his career, Minnesota has scored 1,197 goals. Factoring in Kaprizov’s contributions, it’s easy to ascertain he’s been involved in 32.2% of the Wild’s goals, despite missing many games due to injuries.
Given that he’s accounted for one-third of the team’s offense since coming into the league, it seems like an easy investment to make for the Wild. Unfortunately, his injuries are cause for concern, and they could become an issue throughout negotiations when agreeing to a final dollar amount.
Regardless, the good news is that Minnesota appears to realize exactly what they have in Kaprizov. Their only pathway to contention runs through him, and they’re seemingly ready to recognize him financially for that.
His hypothetical $15MM AAV won’t last long as the league’s highest, with Connor McDavid prepared to earn more on his next contract with the Edmonton Oilers, or elsewhere. Still, although it’s not commonplace to make wingers some of the league’s highest-paid, Kaprizov is worth every penny.
Photo courtesy of Nick Wosika-Imagn Images.
Honestly, I don’t think the Wild have a choice. They can’t afford to lose Kaprizov. They have to give the record-setting contract.
Could be getting into a bidding war against themselves.
Possibly. However, it is also possible that a team like Chicago would give him a monster deal to pair him with Bedard. It is a risk that Minnesota can’t afford to take.
There are teams with enough cap space to make it tough for the Wild.
Can a Minneapolis based franchise afford player like that? Look what the Twins did this week.
MLB has no salary cap or floor
It does and it doesn’t.
The twins are mired in mediocrity and they absolutely can afford to pay players. They just usually don’t. That Correa contract was quite large, even though he sucks.
And they can defer money… nhl doesn’t allow it
Luckily there based in St. Paul not Minneapolis.
Luckily there based in St.Paul not Minneapolis.
The Wild have NO choice!
Kaprizov is an elite, consistent superstar in his prime averaging 100 pts per 82 games. Either Minnesota gives max term and max money to him now, or some other team will next summer.
He is absolutely worth it, and any team would pay him.
Wild paid Parise and Suter like they were top 5 talents in the league. Kaprizov is a guy who might actually be a top 5 talent.
How does a guy with his skill get drafted in the 5th round?
Ask the scouts, but I do remember them (likely Pierre) talking about him in the draft and how he was a boom or bust, high risk/high reward player.
Was hoping he’d drop to us, our fifth was only our second pick in that draft, but Minny took him and we got Dominik Simon. Not quite as good.
THIS is why you always chase upside in the draft. Bottom pairs and bottom sixes are cheap and easy to fill. Guys like this…not as easy to get.
First line winger, Dominik Simon. Haha
There was no real concerns about his ability (not more than any other prospect) but there was a lot of questions around if and when he would come to play in the states during the draft. The Wild had to work hard to get him here.
Because the draft is a crapshoot, and you’re gauging the abilities of teenagers who haven’t finished growing up yet, competing against one another. Then toss in that KHL players are crapshoots in of themselves, and Kaprizov wasn’t precisely a worldbeater in those days.
Kaprizov is an elite talent but he isn’t worth more than Draisaitl. I agree minny can’t afford to lose him and he’s going to probably get that money but he’s not worth it overall.
While I don’t disagree, there are about 5-10 QBs who make more than Mahomes but don’t deserve to. It’s just the constant evolution of contracts in sports these days with increasing caps.
He is not but They will pay him. They have no choice . It already not one the top choices of most. Overpaying is what They have to do, . Also target players live their after hockey.
how long has it taken the wild to recover from their last two massive overpays ? but it’s probably the risk they’ll have to take to keep him in Minnesota
Timing is everything.
The teams that develop players and then pay them, like the awesome Red Wings teams, tend to make out pretty well. Overpaying to buy players like the Wild did in the past is a fools’ game. Rangers proved that with their ridiculous contracts.
cc: Barry Trotz
Would he be worth the money on a team like Vegas or Edmonton, I’m not sure. But in Minnesota he’ll be worth every penny.
On a team like Vegas or Edmonton he would be worth all kinds of money after finishing every year with 140+ playing with gods.
What I mean is that would a good team with super stars pay that kind of money for him. Probably, but I know Minnesota needs to.
Is he worth that kind of contract? No. Will the Wild have to pay it to keep him? Yes.
He wins the Hart last year if he stays healthy. He’s a top 5 player in the NHL and $15 mil for him is market value now and with a rising cap should be surplus value.
“He finished the campaign with 41 games played in the regular season, and another six in the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs. Although he missed half the season, he scored 25 goals in 56 games”
So he played in 41 games but 25 goals in 56 games? That math ain’t mathin
I believe they meant 25 goals and 56 points in 41 games
He’s an incredible offensive talent. He can just flat out dominate any time he wants.
Hopefully, Minnesota gives him a massive contract that will prevent them from giving Rossi the contract that he and his agent want. My Red Wings need Rossi as a second line center. 🙏