With the regular season in the rearview, the NHL’s draft lottery odds are set. As it has been since 2021, only two draws will be held.
Since 2022, teams who win the lottery can only move up a maximum of 10 spots, and teams can only move up in the draft order twice in five years. Every team is eligible to move up this year. The only two lottery-eligible teams who have moved up in the lottery since 2020 are the Kraken (No. 3 to No. 2 in 2021 to select Matty Beniers) and the Blackhawks (No. 3 to No. 1 in 2023 to choose Connor Bedard).
Odds for the league’s worst teams to retain their positions atop the draft increased as a result of the lottery draw for the third overall pick being eliminated four years ago, so there hasn’t been a ton of movement in the last few years. The last team outside the bottom three to win a lottery draw was the Devils, who moved up from No. 5 to No. 2 overall in 2022 to select Simon Nemec.
Perhaps there will be more meaningful changes to the order in this year’s lottery. The league has not yet set a date for the draw, but it typically takes place in the first half of May.
Via Tankathon.com, the draft lottery odds for 2024 are listed in the chart below. The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Sharks’ pick, for instance, has a 25.5% chance of becoming the No. 1 selection and a 55.7% chance of ending up at No. 3. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%. Odds are rounded to the nearest decimal place.
Here’s the full chart (if you’re on our mobile site or app and can’t see the whole thing, try turning your phone sideways):
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 25.5 | 18.8 | 57.7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CHI | 13.5 | 14.1 | 30.7 | 41.7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| NSH | 11.5 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 39.7 | 29.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PHI | 9.5 | 9.5 | 0.3 | 15.4 | 44.6 | 20.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| BOS | 8.5 | 8.6 | 0.3 | – | 24.5 | 44.0 | 14.2 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SEA | 7.5 | 7.7 | 0.2 | – | – | 34.1 | 41.4 | 9.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| BUF | 6.5 | 6.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – | 44.4 | 36.5 | 5.6 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ANA | 6.0 | 6.2 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – | 54.4 | 30.0 | 3.2 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PIT | 5.0 | 5.2 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – | – | 64.4 | 23.5 | 1.7 | – | – | – | – | – |
| NYI | 3.5 | 3.7 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 73.3 | 18.4 | 0.9 | – | – | – | – |
| NYR* | 3.0 | 3.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 79.9 | 13.4 | 0.5 | – | – | – |
| DET | – | 5.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 85.7 | 8.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| CBJ | – | – | 4.2 | >0 | >0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 90.7 | 5.1 | >0 | – |
| UTA | – | – | – | 3.2 | >0 | >0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 94.7 | 2.1 | >0 |
| VAN | – | – | – | – | 1.1 | – | >0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 97.9 | 1.1 |
| CGY* | – | – | – | – | – | 1.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 98.9 |
Notes:
- The Rangers’ pick is top 13 protected. It is guaranteed to land inside the top 13. They can decide between surrendering this year’s pick to the Penguins or deferring to an unprotected 2026 first-round selection. New York initially sent their pick to the Canucks in the J.T. Miller trade, but Vancouver immediately flipped the pick to Pittsburgh for Marcus Pettersson.
- If the Flames retain No. 16 overall, the pick will be sent to the Canadiens. If Calgary wins a lottery draw to move them to No. 6 overall, they keep the pick and send the Panthers’ 2025 first-round pick, which they own, to Montreal.
Rangers should give that pick up
Could unravel even more next year and be top 10…you never know (See Nashville and their expected playoff calibre team…now 3rd worst record)
I think there’s too many bad teams for them to bottom out even worse, and the top teams in the East are pretty old. I think their worst case scenario would be finishing in a similar position and then winning the lottery, which would be very unlikely.
2026 a much stronger draft as well. I agree
Funny, I think they should keep it for those exact reasons.
I think if Drury keeps that pick, we will have empirical proof that he is a bad GM and should be launched into the sun.
I miss the days when Gary Bettman loved the 32nd biggest media market in the country that he has no ties to whatsoever so much that he rigged all of the drafts and stuff for us.