The deadline for teams to elect for arbitration came and went yesterday afternoon. Notably, the Boston Bruins decided not to elect for salary arbitration with goaltender Jeremy Swayman leaving them vulnerable to a potential offer sheet since Swayman himself did not elect either. The Bruins have $8.6MM in cap space to deal with their lone restricted free agent but several teams could put Boston in trouble.
A hypothetical offer sheet for Swayman would likely come in at the ’Tier Five’ range which would need a salary of $6.87MM-$9.16MM and would require the signing team to send their upcoming first, second, and third-round picks (the picks may not be the original property of another team) to the Bruins if they are unwilling to match. Boston would likely match a max offer for Swayman even if it approaches the $9.16MM range but they would become uncomfortably close to the salary cap ceiling for the upcoming season.
According to CapFriendly, the only teams able to sign Swayman to a deal in that range would be the Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, Montreal Canadiens, Nashville Predators, New York Islanders, Philadelphia Flyers, and Seattle Kraken. The Sabres and Red Wings seem unlikely as they will have limited cap space to make moves once they sign the rest of their restricted free agents while the Predators and Islanders already have established goaltenders at the NHL level. Additionally, the Flyers and Kraken don’t hold enough cap space to cause Boston problems.
So why not theorize about reigniting one of the best rivalries in the game?
The Canadiens only have two pending restricted free agents left to sign with just over $10MM in space in Arber Xhekaj and Justin Barron. Neither player projects to cut too much into that cap and wouldn’t necessarily prohibit Montreal from making a move of this magnitude. The Canadiens are not far removed from making a statement via offer sheet as they infamously signed Sebastian Aho to a five-year, $42.27MM offer later matched by the Carolina Hurricanes.
Montreal could open up additional cap space this summer by trading Christian Dvorak and Joel Armia for nothing in return. By trading away both players, the Canadiens could open up nearly $8MM in cap space and could easily give their roster spots to younger players. This is still without factoring in their trump card.
As of right now, former goaltender Carey Price’s $10.5MM salary for the upcoming season has not been officially factored into the Canadiens’ LTIR space. Montreal would not need to put Price’s contract on LTIR space at all this season but if they choose to, their cap space would buoy up to $20.68MM — giving the Canadiens all the room in the world to safely add Swayman’s contract.
The draft picks that would need to go back to Boston would be a manageable cost for the Canadiens. Through several different trades, Montreal holds a conditional first-round pick from the Calgary Flames in 2025, Pittsburgh’s second-round selection in 2025, a conditional third-round pick from New Jersey in 2025, and Vancouver’s third-round pick in 2025. Even if the Canadiens had to part with their first, second, and third-round picks for the 2025 NHL Draft, they would still make four selections in the first three rounds.
The major drawback of signing Swayman to an offer sheet would be the negative consequences to the Canadiens’ current starting netminder, Sam Montembeault. Montembeault did not have an earth-shattering performance last season but still produced a 16-15-9 record in 40 starts with a .903 save percentage and 3.14 GAA. Montreal’s brass committed to Montembeault based on his performance by signing him to a three-year, $9.45MM extension on December 1st, 2023.
Montembeault’s consistency doesn’t come close to Swayman’s performance in Boston; however, as the netminder has produced a 79-33-15 record in 125 starts while collecting an impressive .919 SV% and 2.34 GAA throughout his career. The Canadiens can procure one of the best goaltenders in the game while subsequently punching up at their bitter rivals.
That would be crazy if that happens. I don’t know if Fowler is projected to be an impactful goaltender in the future, because they don’t have any other big prospects. I think they also have the ressources to maybe pull an Askarov trade.
Also a genuine question: does making an offer sheet gives a bad reputation to the team in the eyes of other GMs?
It’s tough to say for certain. The most recent example was the controversy around Montreal/Carolina. Montreal signed Aho to an offer sheet that Carolina matched, and then the Hurricanes signed Jesper Kotkaniemi to an offer sheet two years later that went unmatched. At face value, it appeared to be a revenge signing but it’s tough to say for sure without talking to the general managers.
Nobody because offer sheets basically never happen
Would Swayman be willing to sign an offer sheet with Montreal? The player has to want to go to that place & I’m not sure Swayman wants to play in Montreal. Also, I really can’t see the Bruins letting him go to Montreal. The front office would be torn apart.
For 9.5million he does
@pawtucket — Guys are and will continue to sign in places for less $$$, because of taxes, lifestyle, and whatever else that city offers to their liking. See FLA, TBL, DAL, and others. Many of the 7-team no-trade lists involve the Canadian teams. Some guys go to places that they think will be massively better than their last stop, only to be disappointed (or at least play like it). See J. Gaudreau, as an example. I don’t think Johnny regrets going to CBJ to get away from CGY, but it hasn’t been a bed of roses, either.
Boston at $7.5 vs Montreal at $9.5 (and likely forcing a Boston match) is a win for the player
@pawtucket — BOS should offer him $7MM for as many years as they want, and not worry about the Habs. That’s more than 2X his previous contract.
Teams in states with no income tax have an unfair advantage. The league should add a surcharge to their contracts to even things out.
Teams in those states are governed by sane politicians.
What? Do you spend your days hoping and begging for more rules and laws to be added to your life? Here is a better solution: eliminate the income tax, state and federal.
Oh man, the intrigue. Fun article. My mind wonders if the habs might actually be closer to lifting a cup than the bruins are.
You would have to offer sheet $10mil per to even have a slight chance to get Boston not to match. Better off doing a $11mil per x 4 seasons. If not don’t even bother.
EDMONTON OILERS.
McD Drai RNH Hyman Bouchard and Swayman as your core. Fill out the rest of the roster however you have to.
Or the Leafs, for that matter.
I get that a few rando goalies have won Cups lately. RANDOMLY. You can’t bet what might have been a dynasty on hope.
Yet, that’s what EDM and TOR are doing. And have zero Cups to show for it.
@66TheNumberOfTheBest — Yes, but EDM has come a lot closer than those other guys have. They’re more likely, as constructed, to go farther than TOR, unless The Chief can find a way for that group to stop playing “Country Club” hockey and start playing to win for real. The other thing is, EDM has to change from hoping to get the right complementary players to intelligently picking the right surrounding cast for the highly-skilled guys. That is more art and science.
Edmonton & Toronto can’t do an offer sheet. They don’t have the cap space nor the draft picks to be able to give Swayman an offer sheet
Yeah, they locked in mediocrity and now instead of being the Pens or Hawks, the Leafs and Oilers will be the modern day Sharks.
I sure hope they do, but at no more than $8.4 per… Would Boston at least think about not matching, knowing that first round pick is guaranteed to be a lottery pick? Where would they get a No. 1 netminder, because they definitely are in the last days of an open window… Bruins most likely would match, and they’d be handcuffed a bit to improve more (tho honestly if they think he’s going to sign for $7M they must be dreaming)
I love this idea. 7 x 9.1. Boston will match it and be screwed. Or, they won’t, and they’ll be screwed. Such drama.
Or Swayman signs a deal with Boston & there is no offer sheet.
The B’s are definitely in between a rock and a hard place. On one hand they lose their best goalie and they have Korpisalo as the starter or they keep him but money is tight. Not sure what the B’s cap situation is but I can guarantee they would love to have some wiggle room.
Every team should do an offer sheet just to cost Bruins money since they will match but teams in NHL are stupid so won’t
If I’m Montreal, I offer sheet him just to screw over Boston. Either you take their only NHL starter and leave them hunting for a replacement in a thin pool, or you force them to pay more for him in the salary cap era.
Either way you’re taking a big blow at your division rival.
With their pool of prospects, cap space and tons of draft picks, gotta tip my hat to Montreal’s organization for the asset management. They have been drafting a lot in the last years, it will cause them issues by having to respect the 50 contracts limit but they will plenty of prospects to choose from to build their team or trade for needs.
Well this is a meaningless write up. Why do writers bring up sooo many “offer sheet” scenarios when it practically never happens. Then to write about a scenario about a player possibly signing on with a bitter rival? I don’t get it…
Well I guess we are talking about it, so it did work lol
Would Swayman sign the offersheet when he was just handed the starting job of a Cup contending team to go to a possible lottery pick team? Being American, and going to the highest taxed team in the league is unlikely. But I guess stranger things have happened.
All depends if he’s still po from last year’s arbitration case it’s been reported for months that he didn’t like what they had to say and the way they’re dragging this out I really believe he could say forget it and say I’ll sign sheet for 3yrs then
Lololololol Hurricanes!
It’s easy for fans to say why would he want to play in Montreal? The reality is it’s an Original 6 franchise and that holds weight for most players. Boston is also an Original 6 and has a lot of great history. As a Red Wings fan I see zero chance he leaves Boston. But if he were to sign somewhere Montreal would be my guess but only if they put Carey Price’s contract on LTIR.