Offseason Checklist: Florida Panthers

After this year’s Stanley Cup champion was crowned, the offseason has arrived for everyone. It’s time to examine what teams will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Last up is a look at the Cup champion Panthers.

After reaching the Cup Final last year before bowing out fairly quickly to Vegas, there was only one way Florida could improve on their fortunes.  They did just that, surviving losing three straight to Edmonton to erase a 3-0 series lead to win their first title in franchise history.  Now, GM Bill Zito has a lot to contend with concerning his roster for the summer and not a lot of time to do it.

Try To Keep Key UFAs

The Panthers have a sizable list of pending unrestricted free agents, many of which are core pieces.  How successful their offseason ultimately is will be determined by how many they’re able to keep or how well they’re able to replace them with the roughly $19.5MM in cap room they have, per CapFriendly.

Up front, the biggest name is Sam Reinhart.  After a quieter second season in Florida, the 28-year-old turned things around, putting together a career year that saw him put up 57 goals and 94 points during the regular season while adding 16 points in the playoffs.  A strong defensive player, Reinhart can also play down the middle if called upon which would only boost his value.  After making an average of $6.5MM over the last three years, Reinhart is well-positioned to earn a significant raise and a long-term deal.  He could conceivably cost up to half of Florida’s remaining cap room.

Then there’s Vladimir Tarasenko.  After his market didn’t materialize as planned, he settled for a one-year, $5MM deal with Ottawa, who flipped him to the Panthers at the trade deadline.  Notably, the 32-year-old made it known he’d only waive to go to Florida.  With 23 goals and 32 assists, he should be able to command a similar-sized price tag which could price him out of their range unless he’s willing to take a team-friendly deal.

On the back end, they took care of one key pending free agent when they signed Gustav Forsling to an eight-year, $46MM extension to keep him away from the open market.  But they have the top blueliner from this year’s class in Brandon Montour as well.  The 30-year-old broke out with Florida, living up to the high-end potential many felt he had.  He posted a career-best 73 points in 2022-23 but only managed 33 in 66 games during the regular season which will likely lower his overall price.  Having said that, he could still more than double the $3.5MM AAV he had over the past three years which could make it hard to keep him around.  Oliver Ekman-Larsson also had a nice bounce-back year and is set to hit the open market where he should command more than the $2.275MM he made this season.

Early Extension Talks

If those pending free agents weren’t notable enough, the Panthers have three key pieces that will be entering the final year of their respective contracts on July 1st, making them extension-eligible at that time.  While getting them locked up early isn’t necessary, Zito at least needs to get a sense of what those players are looking for as that will likely impact how many of their current free agents (who should all command multi-year contracts this time around) they’re able to try to re-sign.

One of those players is Carter Verhaeghe.  When he first arrived with Florida, he had yet to establish himself as a full-time NHL player.  Now, just four years later, he has been one of the better bargains in the NHL while his offensive game has taken off.  In 2022-23, he potted 42 goals and 31 assists and followed that up with 34 goals and 38 helpers this season.  Those are top-line numbers that will have him positioned to command a long-term agreement and a significant raise.  For context, Verhaeghe made just $1MM in his first two seasons with the Panthers and currently has a cap charge of $4.167MM.  Next time out, he could potentially double it with an AAV that should check in around the $8MM range.

Meanwhile, Aaron Ekblad will soon be in need of a new deal on the back end.  The agreement that he’s on now was a record-setting deal at the time for a defenseman coming off his entry-level contract as he took an eight-year deal that carried a $7.5MM AAV.  While he never really took off offensively (aside from the 2021-22 campaign), the Panthers have still done rather well with that contract as Ekblad has been a workhorse for most of that time.  However, he dealt with some injury issues this season while his playing time was more limited; his 20:52 per game was a career-low.  It’s possible that Florida will try to get him to take a bit less this time around which makes it more challenging to see a deal get done in the coming weeks.  Those discussions will come with a new agent as PuckPedia reports (Twitter link) that he’s now represented by Newport’s Craig Oster.

Then there’s Sam Bennett.  His regular season numbers don’t jump off the page (his career-high in points is 49) but he’s coming off two strong playoff performances that saw him produce at a better rate, something that doesn’t generally happen.  On top of that, he’s a power forward who also plays center.  That’s a combination that will have a lot of teams gearing up to put in offers so it stands to reason that he’s in line for a considerable raise on his current $4.425MM AAV.

Again, they don’t have to get these players signed just yet.  Simply knowing what the asking prices are likely to be should give Zito enough information to formulate his plan for his pending free agents.

Knight Decision

With Spencer Knight spending a good chunk of 2022-23 away from the team while being in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, Zito decided he needed some insurance between the pipes, inking Anthony Stolarz to a one-year, $1.1MM contract, a deal that couldn’t have worked out any better for them.  With Knight being young enough to get to the minors without waivers, he entered the season as Florida’s third-string option.

From a games-played perspective, things worked out relatively well for Knight as he played 45 times, his highest amount of appearances since his draft year.  However, his numbers with AHL Charlotte weren’t dominant by any stretch the way you’d hope someone making $4.5MM would be able to put up.  While he finished eighth among qualifying netminders in GAA (2.41), his SV% (.905) was only good for a tie for 28th place.  He got to play but management was probably hoping he’d have been more effective.

At this point, Stolarz is likely to price himself out of what Florida can afford as he’s slated to be one of the better options in a UFA goaltending class that is relatively weak.  Accordingly, Zito needs to decide if Knight is ready to re-assume the second-string duty behind Sergei Bobrovsky.  If so, then he has his very expensive tandem in place.  If not, then he’ll need to find a replacement.

And if the decision is made that Knight isn’t going to be the backup next season, Florida will need to contemplate a buyout.  He’s young enough that the buyout cost would only be $750K for four years.  If he’s buried in the minors again (he remains waiver-exempt), the cap charge would be $3.325MM.  That $2.575MM difference could be enough for a lower-cost backup on a deal similar to the one Stolarz received a year ago while freeing up funds to up an offer to one of their core free agents.

Knight didn’t play a single second for Florida during the regular season or playoffs but he could still play a big role in what the Panthers can and can’t do in the coming days and weeks.

Add Low-Cost Depth

Last summer, Zito had to make some low-cost acquisitions, bringing in Kevin Stenlund, Steven Lorentz, Dmitry Kulikov, Mike Reilly, Uvis Balinskis, and Stolarz on cheap deals worth $1.1MM or less.  For the most part, they did quite well with those pickups.

Now, Zito will be trying to repeat that level of success on what’s likely to be a mostly new group (only Balinskis is still signed) while also trying to replace some other veteran UFAs including Ryan Lomberg and Nick Cousins.  They could be looking at signing five or six forwards and a couple of defensemen with their remaining cap space while keeping in mind how much some of those top players are likely to command on the open market.

It’s quite possible that the $1.1MM line might be too steep for the Panthers this time around.  Now, they might have to shop for options much closer to the league minimum if not right at the $775K minimum salary to stretch every dollar.  Zito will have to find a way to find veterans who can provide a similar level of performance as his group from last summer while being even more constrained financially, assuming he’s able to keep at least one of his key free agents.  That will be a tough needle to thread for a second straight year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.