Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas won’t shy away from moving winger Jake Guentzel before the March 8 trade deadline if the two sides aren’t close to an extension, The Athletic’s Josh Yohe writes Thursday.
Keeping the pending UFA around long-term is still Dubas’ preference, as Yohe relays, but the team is unlikely to let him walk for nothing this summer. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported last month that Dubas planned to hold talks with Guentzel’s camp over this weekend’s All-Star break.
Previous reports indicated Guentzel’s agent, Ben Hankinson, could wait until the end of the season to discuss an extension. If Hankinson holds firm in that approach, the apparent likelihood of a Guentzel trade in the next five weeks increases dramatically.
Guentzel, 29, is on pace for his third straight 30-goal season. He’s been stapled to future Hall-of-Famer Sidney Crosby’s wing since breaking into the league in 2016-17, recording 219 goals and 463 points in 499 career games.
That chemistry is something Dubas recognizes, per Yohe, and plays into his desire to keep the winger with the Penguins long-term. Yohe cites a rising salary cap and “keeping [Crosby] with his preferred left wing for the rest of his career” as primary reasons why Dubas is amicable to an extension that will likely take Guentzel into his mid-30s.
Crosby’s desire to remain on a line with Guentzel won’t be enough for Dubas to lose out on recouping value in a deadline deal, however. Sources have told Yohe that Dubas “isn’t afraid to trade Guentzel, even if Crosby and [head coach Mike] Sullivan would prefer to keep him employed in Pittsburgh.”
The Canucks’ acquisition of pending UFA center Elias Lindholm from the Flames on Wednesday likely sets the baseline for any Guentzel trade talks if he’s being dealt without an extension in place. Given Guentzel is far out-producing Lindholm this season, there’s a fair argument to be made that he could fetch slightly more. However, there may be some league-wide concern that Guentzel’s production could dip without Crosby on his line.
It’s a reasonable fear, but few players have put up points with consistency like Guentzel has. He’s averaged over a point per game over the past six years and has never been on pace for less than 34 goals in a full season since 2018. Combine that with the fact he’s averaged over 20 minutes per game in every season since 2018 and has solid power-play impacts, and it’s fair to assume he could command more value than Lindholm’s up-and-down track record over the past half-decade.
The Penguins could drive up the asking price further by offering to retain some of his $6MM cap hit, which wouldn’t affect the squad past this season. Guentzel has a 12-team no-trade list, per CapFriendly.
Blues should entertain a trade. Perfect piece to their retool process.
Unpopular opinion but Guentzel is more valuable not on the Penguins than he is on the team. They could help to rebuild their farm system pretty quickly by trading him…
I agree. If he refuses to talk contract or if they aren’t close, they need to move him. There are some good free agents this off-season, potentially even guentzel himself. Get something for him now. This team needs a shake up either way.
I would think any and all players would be expendable on the Penguins roster, The team is alot closer to a rebuild than a Stanley Cup, As it stands today Pittsburgh is just spinning there wheels.
I read a lot of what Dubas wants, and what Crosby supposedly wants, and what the fans want, but I haven’t read a lot about what Guentzel wants. Maybe he believes in the team & wants to continue staying stapled to Crosby’s behind, or maybe he doesn’t want to go down with the ship. I dunno.
You hit the nail on the head. It all comes down to what Guentzel wants to do. There are two scenario’s:
1. He loves Pittsburgh and playing with Crosby and opts to take a slight discount to stay in Pittsburgh on an extension. He probably eventually wears the C when Crosby retires in 4 or 5 years (if he’s not traded).
2. He wants to break away and sign for top dollar, so he won’t take anything less than a premium from the Penguins. If that’s the case he’ll probably be traded and then test free-agency.
There is an unlikely third scenario that is technically possible, and that’s that the Penguins trade Guentzel for a substantial package and then he resigns with the Penguins this offseason.
@Buctober 2 — The problem with scenario #3 is that it isn’t likely to net a substantial package, as he would be a rental. Most of the teams in contention don’t have dumb GMs to give up the farm for a guy that won’t sign long-term with that new team. Without hearing from the preferred spokesperson for The Milkshake Factory, either of the first two scenarios you laid out seem equally possible, more, or less. Would Jake part with his Chocolate #59? We’ll have to wait a while to find out.
Yeah, that’s why I said it’s unlikely. But, could be the best of both worlds, get some assets and still have him moving forward.
I personally think he’ll sign an extension, but I haven’t heard one way or the other if he prefers to be closer to home. The Wild don’t really have the cap room to add him and that’s his hometown team. The Blackhawks and Blues make a lot of sense, though. We’ll see.
Jim Rutherford is still a GM and prone to over pay on rentals……
@Robertowannabe — That is true. He also sounded more hopeful than confident (to my ears) that he would be able to convince Lindholm to stay there long term on Marek’s show today. Maybe Lindy surprises everybody and takes the $$$ like Naz and Johnny did in their respective organizations.
You give GMS too much credit. They absolutely will pay for an impact player that puts them over the top. The penguins can eat half the contract and ensure that they do well in the trade.
@’Tang It — I don’t think we do. It’s one thing for a GM who has his finger on the pulse of the team and has a high degree of confidence that the targeted player will be a difference maker, compared to the one that makes the trade because “he was good for my former team 5 years ago.”
Oilers could use him.
Oilers can’t afford him
Jake isn’t old enough yet for the Pens to sign him to an extension. When he’s qualified for an AARP discount, then they’ll talk.
@Monkey’s Uncle — I can tell you for a fact that the AARP discount IS something to sneeze at. So far, it only helps get a better rate on Medigap insurance plans.
Jake for Bunting and Drury and maybe a 3rd
lol… clearly you didn’t read the article… he will net more than Lindholm… not a ton less value like you think he is worth
No, he will get 2 NHL ready assets and a good pick or prospect. Yes a little more than what I had up there originally, but not like Lindy. The difference is that more of the return will be NHL ready or closer to the NHL than the Lindy return.
Don’t count on that. Dubas will be in charge of the rebuild and if he moves guentzel they are going back to the drawing board in the off season. They likely want picks and prospects. They can either help restock their farm or they can turn around and trade them again to help next season.
Man 4 more years of Karlsson at 10 mil. Yikes you trust that GM to make trades?
It’s only 3 more years and Karlsson has been excellent this season. No issue with him at 10 million for 3 more years, he’s worth it as he’s still a top 10 defensemen in the NHL.
If my Red Wings can’t get him, I’d like to see him end up in Chicago playing with Bedard.