Free agency is less than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Florida Panthers.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Colin White – After a myriad of injuries plaguing his tenure with the Ottawa Senators, White, a former 21st overall selection of the Senators back in 2015, was not issued a qualifying offer by the team last summer. Towards mid-July, White signed on with the Panthers, inking a one-year, $1.2MM contract for the 2022-23 season.
Unfortunately, once again, White seems to be a strong candidate for a non-tender this offseason. A healthy scratch for several games, White accrued 68 games played this year, only scoring eight goals and seven assists. Failing to receive any additional time with special teams, the Panthers only give White a little under 10 minutes of ice time per night.
In White’s defense, he was dressed for 21 games during Florida’s recent run to the Stanley Cup Finals, helping the team out with two assists in the process. Using White every game in an impressive run may indicate that the Panthers do have intentions of keeping the forward around, however; most signs point to White and Florida heading in different directions this offseason.
Other RFAs: F Givani Smith, F Grigori Denisenko, F Aleksi Heponiemi, F Logan Hutsko, F Serron Noel, D Max Gildon, D John Ludvig
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
D Radko Gudas – To keep it plain, every team in the NHL knows what kind of player they’re getting in Gudas. An old-school stay-at-home defenseman, willing to sacrifice seemingly every part of his body for the betterment of his team. This year, Gudas kept to his ways, blocking 124 shots, and also throwing a whopping 312 hits in 72 games played.
During the Panthers’ run to the Stanley Cup Final, it was much of the same, as Gudas threw 91 hits in 21 playoff games for Florida. On the offensive side of his game, Gudas was able to produce a respectable two goals and 15 assists throughout the year.
As much value as Gudas may provide to every team across the league, it would be incredibly surprising if he was not still with the Panthers next season. Throughout the playoffs, it was clear that Gudas was a focal point in the Florida locker room, and had the respect of his teammates and coaching staff.
D Marc Staal – Signed last offseason to a one-year, $750K contract, the Panthers certainly got a positive return on investment with Staal this season. Playing in all 82 games, Staal scored three goals and 12 assists, averaging just over 18 minutes of ice time per night.
Similar to Gudas, but not to the same degree, Staal was stellar on the defensive side of the puck, blocking 122 shots and garnering 14 takeaways. Not only were the topical defensive statistics in his favor, but Staal also finished this season with a 3.1 Defensive Point Shares. He should have plenty of suitors as a stable sixth or seventh defenseman, especially if he is once again only seeking a minimum salary for next season.
G Alex Lyon – Although regular starting goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky backed the Panthers to the Stanley Cup Final, Lyon is one of the primary reasons that Florida made it to the playoffs in the first place. After taking over the crease in late March, Lyon finished his last nine games with a 6-2-1 record, posting an incredible .930 SV%.
The playoffs were not as impressive for Lyon, as his only starts came in the Panthers’ first-round matchup against the President’s Trophy-winning Boston Bruins. In those three starts, Lyon held a record of 1-2-0, only accruing a .902 SV% before finally ceding the net to Bobrovsky.
After his playoff performance, Florida will almost certainly be starting with Bobrovsky in net as the 2023-24 season gets underway, but Lyon may still have a spot in this lineup. As Spencer Knight remains in the NHLPA Player Assistance Program, the Panthers may like to keep Lyon as an insurance option.
Other UFAs: F Eric Staal, D Lucas Carlsson, D Casey Fitzgerald, G Evan Fitzpatrick, F Patric Hornqvist, F Henry Bowlby, F Connor Bunnaman, F Gerald Mayhew, D Anthony Bitetto, G Jean-Francois Berube
Projected Cap Space
As the most recent Eastern Conference Champions, the Panthers’ cap situation isn’t as concerning as some might expect. With Hornqvist’s $5.3MM salary coming off the books, Florida will have around $10.3MM to spend this offseason.
The Panthers do have a high quantity of both UFA’s and RFA’s this summer, but the quality of the players should prohibit Florida from losing too much cap space if they do plan to retain a majority of them.
Already a team built to contend for the Stanley Cup, Florida could use much of its cap space to find players that are larger and more physically imposing, as this is what held them back during their first trip to the Cup Final since 1996. If they do plan to run back a similar team for the 2023-24 season, the Panthers will need to work out extensions for both forward Sam Reinhart and defenseman, Brandon Montour.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
As a Panthers fan, this whole season was a weird one to watch. On paper, the team was a huge question mark. Huberdeau had been world class, and Weegar was a top 3 defenceman. Barkov has streaks of brilliance, but also disappears some weeks. As the season went on, and Florida slipped in the standings, I was like, “Well, that trade was a dud.”
But when I started paying attention to player stats, I noticed Tkachuk was really something special – the team just needed to rejig itself from the typical high-scoring cycle game most offensive teams have to a more grindy, defensive and physical game. And I think it took all season to get there.
A lot has been made of Lyon’s amazing play down the stretch, and he absolutely did play well – but that playoff run came down to Florida finally buying into a system that benefitted their roster.
So if we’re looking to 23-24, I want to see Gudas retained, but also some more offensive tools to pad out that third line; think of the days when San Jose was deep enough to roll Thornton, Marleau and Pavelski on three incredibly effective scoring lines. Maybe add like a Domi or a Barbashev – someone in the 2-4 million range. I think that’s all this team really needs to thrive. But I’m also not convinced Cousins and Duclair are top-line players either, so maybe take a gamble on someone with the potential to be a first line winger on a “show me” contract?
Well… That and rolling the dice on whether .876 or .936 Bobrovsky shows up on any given night. Is it coaching? Such a bizarre player. Sometimes a Vezina winner, sometimes an ECHL backup.
Barkov had something wrong, like missing two weeks for being ‘sick’. He drives the first line but could use another true first line winger. Bertuzzi would be a gamble but would also improve the morbid power play. They got great value from the Staals but Marc was a step slow often. I hope Denisenko gets a chance, he has offensive skill.
Honestly, I’m not sure I want Bertuzzi on the team. The guy’s a right-wing conspiracy nut and he plays dirty. No doubt he’s a talented scorer, but sometimes it just ain’t worth it – especially when Florida already takes too many penalties.
Between Tim Thomas and Brad Marchand, Boston seems to love signing talented weirdos, so honestly, I think Bertuzzi fits in great there.
Wow, right wing conspiracy nut for not getting a shot that has proven side affects now? Judgy much? He is one hell of player that has just had some injuries. He isn’t a dirty player at all, not even close to the guys you already have on that team. I like Florida but like you, I don’t want Bert on that team. He should stay in Boston.
This may be a side thing, but does anyone have any idea what formula hockey-reference uses to calculate these “Defensive Point Shares?” They seem to bear little resemblance to actual defensive skill, and it seems that inevitably a top-pairing guy playing 80+ games is at the top of the list, no matter his other defensive metrics.
Here’s their breakdown of how they calculate all those PS stats, which differs by era: link to hockey-reference.com
Thanks, Josh. Which results in a big “ugh!” With tossing in plus-minus as a relatively minor factor, they’re just assuming that a guy who’s been on ice for ‘X’ amount of time is responsible for/credited for X% of the team’s defense. I’d love to see if they applied that grossly oversimplified metric on other aspects.
All Saber metrics are oversimplifications.
Panthers should look into trading for Noah Hanifan. Sign Gostisbehere for the third pairing. Panthers need to get bigger on defense. Ghost might be able to help with the second PP unit. And re-sign Gudas.
Panthers need to replace Hornqvist, as if it’s possible. And they need a faceoff guy. I’d look at trying to sign David Kampf and bring back Noel Acciari for fourth line roles. Kampf and Acciari would give them two guys capable of winning critical faceoffs, not named Barkov.