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Salary Cap Increases Expected To Be Minimal Through 2025-26

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The good news is, the salary cap could increase by $1MM for the 2022-23 season. The bad news is, significant movement of the upper limit is not expected until 2026-27. Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff reports that the league is projecting a $4.8B hockey-related revenue for the 2021-22 season, which will actually mean the escrow debt that the players owe will actually increase. Seravalli expects there to be a $1MM increase in each of the next four offseasons as the revenues bounce back and players are able to pay off the $1.1B in debt.

When revenues dropped significantly last year, it caused a huge discrepancy in the normal 50-50 split between player salaries and owner revenues. Suddenly, players were being paid much more than their allotted half, meaning the difference would have been held in escrow. In the CBA negotiations that took place last year, the players and owners agreed to a salary deferral and fixed escrow rates, in exchange for a (relatively) flat cap until those debts—the ones caused by player salaries far outreaching 50% of hockey-related revenue—were paid back. Seravalli reports that the balance owed is expected to reach $1.1B after final accounting of the 2020-21 season.

If there are just $1MM increases in each of the next four offseasons, teams will have to be extremely careful how they spend money. Seven teams are already over the cap ceiling for next year, and though long-term injured reserve can help some of them, there’s just not a lot of wiggle room to work with. It also may explain why three teams are currently under the lower limit, with money still to spend to get to the cap floor of $60.2MM. Thirteen teams currently have cap commitments of less than $70MM for the 2021-22 season, giving them room to operate moving forward (while keeping costs down in the meantime).

A $1MM increase may seem like a good thing after three years at the same $81.5MM, but the squeeze is going to be apparent quickly as we move through the next few seasons without any meaningful change.

San Jose Sharks Sign Adin Hill

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Though an unsigned restricted free agent when acquired from the Arizona Coyotes, there was no question that young goaltender Adin Hill was a big part of the San Jose Sharks’ future. That became even more clear when incumbent starter Martin Jones was bought out. The Sharks have now taken their first official step toward a new status quo in net, signing Hill to a new deal. The team announced that the 25-year-old has inked a two-year deal. Kevin Kurz of The Athletic reports that it will carry a $2.175MM cap hit, paying Hill $1.675MM in 2021-22 and $2.675MM in 2022-23.

Hill arrives in San Jose with his eye on the starting job after gradually increasing his role with the Coyotes over the past three seasons. From four NHL games and an .891 save percentage in 2017-18, Hill improved to 13 games apiece in the next two years with a combined .910 save percentage and finally to a career-best 19 games, including 17 starts, and a .913 save percentage in 2020-21. Hill’s numbers are remarkably similar to his AHL play, he has a career 2.79 GAA and .909 save percentage in the NHL and a 2.69 GAA and .909 save percentage in 138 AHL games. Often the mark of a good goaltender, Hill shows little discrepancy in his play regardless of the caliber of competition or defense in front of him.

At 6’6″, Hill is a big, positional goaltender who learned how to use his size from one of the best in the game right now, new Colorado Avalanche addition Darcy Kuemper. The Sharks hope that Hill has a ceiling like Kuemper, but will settle for any upgrade to Jones’ abysmal numbers over the past few years. With the term of his new deal coming in shorter than that of veteran free agent signing James Reimer, San Jose will not be completely left hanging if Hill does not pan over the next two years, but they would much rather be signing him to a long-term extension in 2023 than searching for a replacement.

Seattle Kraken Sign Connor Carrick

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The Seattle Kraken have added another piece to their already-deep blue line. In confirming earlier reports that they had signed RFA forward Alex True, the team also added that they had signed UFA defenseman Connor Carrick. Carrick has signed a one-year, two-way contract with an NHL salary of $800K.

Carrick, 27, is a veteran of 241 NHL games and 158 AHL games. A player often regarded as too good for the minors, where his career scoring rate is over a half-point per game, but just not quite the caliber of an NHL starter. As a result, Carrick has bounced around in his young career and multiple teams have tried to be the ones to turn the known AHL commodity into a breakout star. Through stints with the Washington Capitals, Toronto Maple Leafs, Dallas Stars, and New Jersey Devils, Carrick has played well enough at the top level, but has failed to lock down a regular role. In eight pro seasons, only twice has he played in more than half of his team’s games – both with Toronto several years ago.

Carrick seems always on the cusp of taking on a larger role in the NHL and perhaps Seattle will finally provide a starting opportunity. On paper, the blue line looks full. Expansion Draft selections Mark Giordano, Jamie Oleksiak, Adam Larsson, Carson Soucy, Vince Dunn, Jeremy Lauzon, Haydn Fleury, Cale Fleury, Will Borgen, and Dennis Cholowski are all NHL defensemen and none of the younger players remain waivers-exempt. Even without Carrick, this defense corps seems bound to be broken up, even with Kurtis MacDermid also traded. The Kraken will have to chip that number down from ten to at least eight. How could Carrick benefit? If one of the departures is a right-hander like Cale Fleury or Borgen, suddenly Carrick is the third-highest righty defenseman on the depth chart. That won’t be enough to crack the Opening Night roster, but in the even of an injury could open the door for a long-term role. In the meantime, the well-liked veteran will be looked upon as a leader for Seattle’s AHL prospects.

Front Office Notes: Penguins, Flyers, Maple Leafs, Rangers

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Once a model organization for goaltending performance and depth, the Pittsburgh Penguins play in net has largely gone downhill since the departure of goaltending coach Mike Bales in 2017. His replacement, Mike Buckley, watched as young starters Matt Murray and Tristan Jarry suffered through struggles and was unable to right the ship. The Penguins have decided that it is time for a new voice, especially after failing thus far in free agency to add a veteran mentor for Jarry. The team has announced that Buckley has been relieved of his duties and former Pittsburgh keeper Andy Chiodo has been hired as his replacement. Though new to the job, Chiodo has been with the organization in a development role since 2018. He has also previously worked as a goalie coach in the OHL and Canadian college ranks. Chiodo was considered a high-IQ goaltender during his playing days and will look to take his knowledge of the game and use it to improve the Penguins’ young, inconsistent net.

  • Across the state, the Philadelphia Flyers have made some new additions of their own. The team announced that ten new names have joined the organization, five in hockey operations, two to the Flyers’ coaching staff, and three to the AHL’s Lehigh Valley Phantoms’ coaching staff. The headliner of the group is veteran executive Mike O’Connell, named Senior Advisor to the General Manager. A former GM of the Boston Bruins, made infamous as the architect of the Joe Thornton trade, O’Connell has quietly made a very positive difference for the Los Angeles Kings for the past 15 year in various roles in scouting and player development. O’Connell contributed to two Stanley Cup champions and has now helped to draft and develop arguably the best prospect pipeline in the NHL. Among the other front office hires were Pro Scout Nick Beverley, who has spent the past 16 years with the Nashville Predators and Amateur Scout Matt Bardsley, a former GM of the WHL’s Kamloops Blazers. In Lehigh Valley, the team named two assistants to Ian Laperriere’s staff, former WHL coach Jason Smith former ECHL coach Riley Armstrong.
  • While the New York Rangers have lost some big names from their front office this off-season, they just poached a notable name for themselves. The Toronto Sun’s Lance Horsby reports that Toronto Maple Leafs Director of Amateur Scouting John Lilley has decided to leave the team to become Director of Player Personnel in New York. Lilley has been with Toronto since 2006, including the past three years as leader of amateur scouting and therefore the Maple Leafs’ drafts. His new title means even more responsibility with the Rangers, though Lilley will still be in charge of amateur scouting and will run the draft. The Maple Leafs have not named a replacement.

Carolina Hurricanes Sign Josh Jacobs

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There is no such thing as “too many defensemen” when it comes to the Carolina Hurricanes. With a dozen defenders with NHL experience already under contract for next season, the team has decided that there was still room for more. Enter Josh Jacobs. The Hurricanes have announced that they have come to terms on a one-year, two-way contract with the long-time New Jersey Devils prospect. Jacobs will make the minimum $750K NHL salary and a $75K AHL salary, with $100K guaranteed.

Jacobs, 25, was a Group 6 unrestricted free agent this off-season after five plus seasons with New Jersey that resulted in just three NHL opportunities. A 2014 second-round pick, Jacobs always seemed to be on the fringe of an NHL role with the Devils, especially after a 2019-20 season in which he recorded five goals, ten points, and a team-leading +16 rating in 54 games with the AHL’s Binghamton Devils and saw two games with New Jersey. Alas, he did not make one NHL appearance this season and decided to try his hand elsewhere.

Carolina is an interesting choice for a player seeking a longer NHL look given the Hurricanes’ immense defensive depth. However, it is easy to see why the Hurricanes liked Jacobs as a depth addition despite their blue line gluttony. Jacobs is everything you want in an AHL replacement defenseman: size, a right-handed shot, sound defense, decent offensive numbers, young legs, considerable pro experience, and a desire to prove himself. Jacobs has shown little to no upside as an NHL regular just yet, but he is a safe plug-and-play option in an emergency and in the meantime will be a dependable minor league player. Jacobs just hopes he can take a step forward from this depth label this season before hitting the market again next summer.

Seattle Kraken Sign Alex True

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The Seattle Kraken have signed one of the players they selected in the recent expansion draft, inking Alex True to a one-year, two-way contract according to CapFriendly. True was the team’s selection from the San Jose Sharks and was a restricted free agent. The deal will carry an NHL salary of $750K, an AHL salary of $200K and a minor league guarantee of $250K.

True, 24, is a success story to show young players if they’re not drafted out of junior. After going undrafted, he signed an AHL contract with the San Jose Barracuda and eventually earned an entry-level deal with the Sharks. By the 2019-20 season, he was making his NHL debut and playing in 12 games. He suited up for seven more this season, only to be selected by the Kraken despite other more high-profile players being available.

The fact is that you don’t often find a package like True, standing 6’5″ with a real scoring touch. The Danish forward had 20 points in 27 games for the Barracuda this season and has been a strong AHL contributor since reaching the pro level in 2017.

Given Seattle doesn’t have the longest depth chart in their first season (they’ll be sharing a minor league affiliate until 2022-23), True could very well find himself on the active roster for most of the year. Whether he can carve out a full-time spot in the lineup is a different question, though the team obviously liked him enough to pick him last month.

Ottawa Senators Avoid Arbitration With Victor Mete

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The Ottawa Senators have reached an agreement with Victor Mete, avoiding arbitration with a one-year contract at $1.2MM. Mete was one of the 17 players who filed for salary arbitration earlier this week, but won’t need it with this new contract. GM Pierre Dorion released a short statement explaining the deal:

Victor was a really solid addition to our defence corps over the last month of the season last year. He’s mobile, poised and defensively aware. We’re looking forward to seeing his progression in our lineup in 2021-22.

The 23-year-old Mete was buried down the Montreal Canadiens depth chart to start the 2020-21 season, not even seeing a single game until his agent made some noise in the media. A few months later, he found himself on waivers and quickly snatched up by the rebuilding Senators.

In 14 games with the Senators down the stretch, the young defenseman saw increased minutes and was actually given a more defensive deployment. He contributed to the penalty kill and even saw a bit of time on the powerplay, suggesting the Senators saw a bright future for the fourth-round pick.

Now with this new contract, Mete will continue to be a regular part of the Senators blueline, but certainly isn’t guaranteed a big role. Five other defensemen are on one-way contracts worth more, and he’s tied with Josh Brown at $1.2MM. Still, for a rebuilding club, there’s a good chance that Mete could provide some excess value and set himself up for a bigger payday next summer.

St. Louis Blues Sign Zach Sanford

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The St. Louis Blues have agreed to terms with Zach Sanford on a one-year deal, avoiding arbitration with the young restricted free agent. The deal will carry a salary of $2MM. Sanford was one of 17 players who elected salary arbitration earlier this week.

With a $2MM Sanford in tow, the Blues now have just about $1.5MM in cap space with Robert Thomas still to sign. That number can be finessed a bit by dropping the number of players on the roster, but realistically will need a Vladimir Tarasenko trade if the Blues want to sign Thomas to a long-term deal. Otherwise, they could go short-term with him as well, just as they have with Sanford and Jordan Kyrou, who recently inked a two-year deal.

This contract for Sanford is interesting though, because it will walk the 26-year-old forward right to unrestricted free agency next summer. The 6’4″ forward is coming off a disappointing season which ended with just 16 points in 52 games. That’s a big step backward from his 2019-20 campaign that included 16 goals and 30 points in 58 games.

With that in mind, this is kind of a “prove it” deal for Sanford, to establish himself as a valuable secondary scoring threat or simply a bottom-six depth player. If he can do more than just contribute at the defensive end of the rink, he’ll could be one of the most sought-after free agents next summer. If those scoring totals don’t come up though, there’s no guarantee he even gets more than the $2MM St. Louis is comitting to him this time around.

New Jersey Devils Sign Marian Studenic

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The New Jersey Devils have announced the contract for A.J. Greer that was reported yesterday, but he’s not alone. Marian Studenic has also signed a one-year, two-way contract worth $750K at the NHL level.

Studenic, 22, made his NHL debut this season, playing eight games for the Devils. The fifth-round pick opened some eyes while playing back in Slovakia, showing just how far he’s come from his junior-age days. In 25 games with Bratislava before returning to North America he scored 15 points, tying the mark he had early in his career in far fewer games.

Now he’ll be in the mix for games with New Jersey next season, given how little they did to change the forward group heading into the season. Just six forwards in the entire organization are signed to one-way contracts, meaning there will be plenty of competition for playing time among their young prospect group.

Nashville Predators Sign Rem Pitlick

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The Nashville Predators have finished some offseason work, signing restricted free agent forward Rem Pitlick to a one-year, two-way contract. The deal will be worth $917,831 at the NHL level, as he signed the qualifying offer he was issued.

Pitlick, 24, was a third-round pick of the Predators back in 2016 and has slowly worked his way to becoming a legitimate option at the highest level. The young forward is still looking for his first NHL goal, but did register two assists in ten games for Nashville this season. A star at the University of Minnesota, he had a 20-goal rookie season in the AHL during 2019-20 and scored eight goals in eight games during his short minor league stint this time around.

There should be a battle for some bottom-six spots in training camp for Nashville, who have lost a few of their key forwards this summer. The team needs to find a way to get more offense out of the group, given how underwhelming the performances have been from high-priced talent like Ryan Johansen and Matt Duchene. It’s not that Pitlick is going to light up the league right away, but he has more offensive upside than some of the other players the Predators have used at the bottom of the roster in previous years.

The fact that he will not be waiver-exempt any longer could help his case, as he won’t be able to bounce up and down between the two levels without being risked to the rest of the league.

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