Senators Notes: No. 19 Pick, Paajarvi, Hogberg
Perhaps excited by the extension of Anthony Duclair and the additional second-round pick added by the Erik Karlsson contract, both occurring earlier today, Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion was very positive and open when speaking with the media today. Per The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch, Dorion began by discussing the team’s plans for the upcoming NHL Draft. The Senators will travel to Vancouver tomorrow to begin meetings ahead of the round one of the draft on Friday night, but Dorion has already had many conversations with rival GM’s. Dorion states that he has already spoken with multiple teams about possibly moving up in the first round from No. 19. The Senators are without their own first-rounder, owed to the Colorado Avalanche from last year’s Matt Duchene trade, but the team was fortunately able to recoup a top pick from the Columbus Blue Jackets in their own sale of Duchene. With that said, No. 19 is not exactly where a rebuilding team would like their first pick to be, even though Ottawa already has a deep, talented pipeline. Following the Karlsson news, CapFriendly reports that the Senators now have 28 picks in the next three drafts, including 16 in the top three rounds. That is plenty of ammunition if Dorion decides that he wants to move up the board on Friday. Teams like the Philadelphia Flyers and Vancouver Canucks have hinted at their willingness to move back, while the Colorado Avalanche may also be open to moving their second pick in the round, No. 16. If Dorion is intent on moving up, he should be able to find a taker.
- Dorion also made the somewhat surprising reveal that the Senators are not pursuing a contract extension with free agent forward Magnus Paajarvi. Paajarvi, 28, has spent the past season and half with Ottawa after coming over from the St. Louis Blues on waivers in 2017-18. Although the 2009 tenth overall pick has never been able to live up to his draft stock nor his rookie year production, Paajarvi has grown into a solid two-way player and enjoyed the best season since his first in Ottawa this past year. Paajarvi seemed like a safe bet to stay with the Senators, especially given his key role on the penalty kill, but Dorion has other plans. He did say that talks continue with fellow UFA’s Oscar Lindberg and Brian Gibbons, both of whom performed well after deadline trades, as well as RFA defenseman Cody Ceci. As for Paajarvi, he’ll likely land on his feet elsewhere in the league once free agency opens.
- Finally, Dorion announced that a contract resolution with RFA goaltender Marcus Hogberg is imminent. Hogberg is expected to sign with the team this week after rumors emerged early this off-season that he was considering a move to Europe. It remains possible that Hogberg could still be loaned elsewhere, as his signing only adds to a logjam of keepers in both Ottawa and AHL Belleville. The Senators expect to enter next season with a tandem of veteran Craig Anderson and returnee Anders Nilsson. As of now, Mike Condon will also be in the mix. In the minors, the team hopes to give top goalie prospect Filip Gustavsson, college standout Joey Daccord, and now Hogberg the time in net they need to develop properly. If that is going to be impossible, even with a likely Condon departure, Hogberg is the top candidate to be loaned away, despite his advantage in pro experience.
Trade Rumors: Trade Bait, Panarin, Condon
For everyone but the Boston Bruins and St. Louis Blues, the off-season is already in full swing and with the NHL Draft less than three weeks away, the rumor mill is starting to heat back up. TSN’s Frank Seravalli has updated his Trade Bait list and it features a whopping ten new names out of 25 total players. Leading the way among the newcomers is talented, young Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere. Gostisbehere has emerged as a candidate to move if the Flyers can land a top-six forward in exchange, as they look to be aggressive this off-season. Also new to the list are names included in the overturned Phil Kessel-to-Minnesota trade, Jack Johnson and Victor Rask, with Jason Zucker and Kessel now long-time fixtures. Another player tied to recent rumors making his trade bait debut is the Vancouver Canucks’ Loui Eriksson, who has been linked to former teammate Milan Lucic, also on the list, and the Edmonton Oilers, but could move in any number of possible deals. As the Florida Panthers look to shake up their roster in free agency, James Reimer and Mike Hoffman have made the list as possible cap space casualties. So too have Toronto Maple Leafs teammates Nazem Kadri and Mitch Marner, even though Seravalli himself agrees that a Marner trade is a long shot. With plenty of talent filling the early off-season trade bait board, it could be a busy summer for high-profile trades, some of which could begin even before the draft kicks off on June 21st.
- A seemingly curious continued presence on the trade bait list is that of Artemi Panarin. It was one thing for Panarin to be atop the list as the trade deadline approached and the Columbus Blue Jackets were unsure whether or not they would sell the all-world forward. However, after keeping Panarin, an impending unrestricted free agent, it may seem that his trade value has now disappeared, since he is weeks away from hitting the open market. However, as a 27-year-old premiere free agent, both Panarin and his suitors will be interested in that eighth year of contract term that is only available to the incumbent team. As such, the Blue Jackets could look to squeeze the very last drops of value out of Panarin by trading his rights before the league year ends, allowing a new team to sign him to an eight-year extension rather than a seven-year free agent contract. While possible, and often valuable, acquiring UFA signing rights is not as frequent a move as one might expect. The last team to do so was the Florida Panthers in 2016, adding an expiring Keith Yandle for a a sixth-round pick and conditional fourth-round pick. That same year, the Arizona Coyotes did the same, bringing in Alex Goligoski on the tail end of his contract with the Dallas Stars for a fifth-round pick. Not since Ilya Bryzgalov in 2011 has a player’s UFA rights drawn more than a fourth-round pick at best, but Panarin is a unique player and Columbus could land a third-round pick or more in exchange for the opportunity to sign him to that one extra year – and to keep him from testing the market.
- Unsurprisingly, the extension of goaltender Anders Nilsson in Ottawa has prompted speculation that the Senators will try to move overpaid third-string option Mike Condon. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch writes that Condon’s “days are numbered” with the team, as there’s no room for him in Ottawa behind Nilsson and Craig Anderson and he’s not wanted in Belleville with Filip Gustavsson, Joey Daccord, and possibly Marcus Hogberg in the mix. Cap space is not a problem for the Senators, but Garrioch still believes they would prefer to trade Condon and all or part of his $2.4MM salary next season rather than buy him out at the cost of $400K next year and $1MM the year after. Garrioch can only make a case that perhaps some team with weak goalie depth would be interested in Condon as a strong AHL option next season, as the 29-year-old is unlikely to be considered a regular NHL option. Perhaps after the free agent goalie market shakes out in early July, the Senators will be able to find a partner who missed out on their targets and could use Condon’s services. Otherwise, a buyout does seem to be the more likely route.
Marcus Hogberg Receiving Interest From Overseas
Senators goaltending prospect Marcus Hogberg is attracting overseas interest, reports Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch. The 24-year-old is slated to become a restricted free agent this summer with salary arbitration eligibility.
Hogberg has spent time at the NHL, AHL, and ECHL levels this season. He held his own in four games with Ottawa when Craig Anderson was injured but has played extremely well with AHL Belleville, posting a 2.29 GAA and a .917 SV% in 35 contests.
However, finding playing time for him could be a challenge next year. Filip Gustavsson, acquired from Pittsburgh last season, is viewed as a potential goalie of the future while the recently-signed Joey Daccord will be in his first full professional season as well. Mike Condon is expected to be healthy for next season but given how he played this year, he’s a candidate to be waived and sent to the minors as well. That doesn’t leave a lot of room for Hogberg.
While it’s possible that Hogberg could be in the mix to be the backup behind Anderson, it’s hard to imagine that the Sens would choose to go with someone that has just four NHL games under his belt as the undisputed number two. Anders Nilsson has played fairly well since being acquired in early January and there’s a good chance Ottawa will look to bring him back for next season.
When players choose to leave North America and head overseas, it’s often viewed as a negative for their NHL aspirations. Hogberg, should he choose to do so, may wind up being one of the exceptions as it may be the best path for him to get meaningful playing time for the 2019-20 season.