Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those who don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2025-26 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We’re currently covering the Atlantic Division, last up are the Maple Leafs.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Current Cap Hit: $94,621,472 (under the $95.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Easton Cowan (three years, $873.5K)

After a strong junior career, Cowan made the jump directly to the NHL and has been a capable player in a limited role.  They’ll be hoping that he can move into a top-six role before too long (potentially as soon as next season) which could change his trajectory quickly.  At this point, it seems more likely that he’d get a bridge deal (potentially in the $3MM to $4MM range) but if he becomes a top-six piece fairly soon and sticks, he could also wind up with a longer-term deal which could cost as much as double that amount.

Signed Through 2025-26, Non-Entry-Level

D Matt Benning ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Calle Jarnkrok ($2.1MM, UFA)
F Scott Laughton ($1.5MM, RFA)*
F Matias Maccelli ($3.425MM, RFA)
F Bobby McMann ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Nicholas Robertson ($1.825MM, RFA)
D Troy Stecher ($787.5K, UFA)

*-Philadelphia is retaining an additional $1.5MM on Laughton’s contract.

Maccelli was brought in from Utah in the hopes that he’d help replace some of the playmaking that left when Mitch Marner went to Vegas.  Instead, he has bounced up and down and even in and out of the lineup as a healthy scratch at times while not producing as much as they hoped for.  Owed a $4.11MM qualifying offer with arbitration rights, he’s a strong non-tender candidate unless they work out a cheaper deal closer to his current price before then.  Laughton has seen his production tumble since joining Toronto.  However, he’s still a strong defensive player and is having a career year at the faceoff dot.  That should be enough to earn him at least a small raise on a multi-year pact even with his offensive struggles.

Jarnkrok is not the impactful utility player he was earlier in his career, resulting in several healthy scratches.  If he doesn’t wind up going back overseas this summer, he’s probably looking at a contract closer to the league minimum.  Robertson has taken some strides this season, putting him on pace for a career year while having arbitration rights this summer.  A jump to the $3MM range isn’t unrealistic as a result.

McMann will be one of the more intriguing UFA options this summer, especially since a lot of the top players have already re-signed.  Barring injury, he’s a lock for his second straight 20-goal season and will get there despite playing time that is in the low end for a second liner and is more like a high-end third liner.  Tripling his current price seems quite likely; a bidding war could push it into the $5MM range.

Benning hasn’t been up with Toronto for most of the season and only gets a passing mention here because $100K is on their books as a dead cap charge while he’s with the Marlies.  Stecher, meanwhile, has been a very serviceable waiver claim from Edmonton, going from a fringe blueliner to someone logging 20 minutes a night.  Still, given how he has bounced around and is generally viewed as more of a depth player, he probably won’t get a huge boost on his next deal.  Doubling this could be doable, however, which would be a nice outcome for someone who was on waivers just a few months ago.

Signed Through 2026-27

D Simon Benoit ($1.35MM, UFA)
D Brandon Carlo ($3.485MM, UFA)*
D Philippe Myers ($850K, UFA)
F Nicolas Roy ($3MM, UFA)

*-Boston is retaining an additional $615K on Carlo’s contract.

Roy came over from Vegas in the Marner sign-and-trade and has basically been the effective third liner he has been for most of his career.  The price tag for those types of players has ticked up in recent years and should continue to do so in a more inflated cap environment.  A bump to the $4MM territory could be doable while Laughton’s next contract this coming summer could serve as a good indicator of where Roy’s could land.

Toronto paid a high price to land Carlo at the trade deadline last season and it hasn’t quite worked out so far.  Never a big point producer, even his defensive game has slipped a bit.  Even so, he’ll be UFA-eligible at the age of 30 and is a big, right-shot player.  Those elements should still land him a raise unless his play really falls off a cliff between now and then.  A multi-year pact in the $4.5MM range might be the floor right now with a bump up from that if his performance rebounds next season.

Benoit has been a serviceable third-pairing player for most of his career but his limitations are well-known.  It’s plausible that he stays in this area (even a jump to $1.5MM or so wouldn’t be surprising) but it seems unlikely that he’d command more than that unless he suddenly becomes more of a top-four option.  Myers was once a quality prospect in Philadelphia but has been more of a fringe player in recent years.  He’s likely to stay at the minimum salary and even securing a one-way deal isn’t a guarantee at this point.

Signed Through 2027-28

F Max Domi ($3.75MM, UFA)
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Dakota Joshua ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Steven Lorentz ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Auston Matthews ($13.25MM, UFA)
G Joseph Woll ($3.67MM, UFA)

Matthews has opted for a shorter-term contract in each of his two non-entry-level negotiations.  The idea was that doing so set him up best for a big payday.  It worked the first time as this deal was briefly the record-setter for AAV.  It’s hard to project that happening again, knowing some other contracts that have since been signed (and others to come) but if Matthews is open to a long-term pact this time around, a jump past the $15MM mark could be realistic, as long as his offensive drop this season isn’t a sign of things to come.  However, if he wants another shorter-term agreement, the price tag could run a little higher but still not challenge for another league record.

Domi’s first season in Toronto was good enough to land him the multi-year commitment that he had been seeking for a while.  Things haven’t gone as well since then, however.  While he’s a strong playmaker, his lack of goals, a smaller stature, and a penchant for penalties could result in his market being more restricted than most again.  Barring an improvement in his production over the next couple of years, he might have a hard time matching this price and term on his next contract.

Joshua was acquired over the offseason from Vancouver with the hopes that a change of scenery could get him back to his 2023-24 level.  That hasn’t exactly happened as he has played more like a fourth liner making third-line money.  He will need to rebound considerably in the back half of the deal to have any chance of matching this on his next contract.  Lorentz rebounded well last season after a limited 2023-24 campaign in Florida and was able to earn some stability with this deal.  For a fourth liner who can kill penalties, this is a reasonable contract but with his limited offensive upside, he’s probably not going to be able to command much more down the road.

Ekman-Larsson opted for stability as well back in 2024 with this deal, a four-year pact that takes him through his age-36 season.  After a more limited role in Florida following a buyout from Vancouver, he has been deployed regularly in a top-four role and has thrived.  Given how much he has played over the years, there could be some concern of him slowing down at the back of the contract but right now, this is definitely one of their better bargains.

When healthy, Woll has looked like a legitimate NHL starting goaltender.  However, staying healthy has been a challenge in recent years which has limited his earnings upside.  If he has a good year or two on this deal and can play 50-plus games, doubling this price tag is certainly realistic.  However, if he continues to be in the 35-40-game range (either through injuries or being in a straight platoon), Woll might be more in the $5MM territory moving forward.

Signed Through 2028-29

F John Tavares ($4.389MM, UFA)

Tavares provided a reasonable return on one of the then-priciest deals in NHL history but now in the back stage of his career, he wasn’t going to come close to $11MM on this contract.  But the pendulum swung the other way with a price tag that is well below market value and even has deferrals (which are no longer legal moving forward).  A second center at this price is a big bargain for Toronto and should be for a little while yet.

Signed Through 2029-30 Or Longer

F Matthew Knies ($7.75MM through 2030-31)
D Jake McCabe ($4.513MM through 2029-30)
F William Nylander ($11.5MM through 2031-32)
D Morgan Rielly ($7.5MM through 2029-30)
G Anthony Stolarz ($2.5MM in 2025-26, $3.75MM from 2026-27 through 2029-30)
D Chris Tanev ($4.5MM through 2029-30)

Nylander is in the second season of his contract, one that’s definitely on the high-cost side but overall, his production continues to make him worthy of the deal.  As the Upper Limit is set to grow quicker in the next few years, this could very well wind up checking in as a below-market pact at some point.  Knies didn’t sign for the maximum term this summer, nor did he take a bridge deal either.  Interestingly, he signed a pact that only bought Toronto one extra year of club control while allowing him to hit the open market in his prime.  The trade-off to that is that the contract already carries a favorable price tag for Toronto with the value only increasing from here.  A jump past $10MM should be doable if he remains a top-line piece throughout this contract.

Rielly’s contract has bounced around a bit on the value scale over the first few years.  At his best, he was a legitimate number one blueliner who produced more than enough offensively in that spot.  Slotted there, this contract looked like a bargain.  But things haven’t gone as well the last couple of years.  His production is down, as is his ice time; he’s now second on the back end in ATOI.  With some defensive miscues, the valuation of the deal starts to skew a bit in the other direction.  Right now, it’s a touch on the high side relative to the role he plays and if he stays as a number two for a while, it should hold up okay.  But if he drops to the second pairing at some point with another drop in production, then it could be more problematic.

Since joining Toronto back in 2023, McCabe has taken on more responsibility to the point where he is now their most-used blueliner.  While he’s ideally more of a second-pairing option, this contract is still on the lower end for that role, particularly with deferrals keeping the price point down.  It should hold up quite well over the next several seasons.  The same can’t be said about Tanev.  Signing a blueliner with a history of injury issues and some tough minutes when healthy to a deal that takes him until he’s 40 carried some risks, especially in the back half.  But doing this kept the cap hit to a more manageable amount so the potential reward was worth the risk.  Tanev’s first year was strong but multiple injuries have made this season a write-off.  Being in and out of the lineup isn’t ideal from a cap perspective (taking SELTIR off the table) but that’s where things might be for the next couple of years.

Stolarz had a very strong first year with the Maple Leafs, leading the league in save percentage for the second straight season but still only made 34 appearances.  That took starter money off the table and ultimately resulted in an extension at more of a platoon rate.  Injuries have limited him this season but if he can even get back to being an above-average backup, this deal should hold up fine.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Carryover Bonus Overage Penalty

$626,230

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Tavares
Worst Value: Joshua

Looking Ahead

After spending most of the season in LTIR, the Maple Leafs recently dipped out of it, giving them a chance to bank some cap space before the trade deadline.  They won’t be able to leverage it too much, especially since they’re expected to sell given their place in the standings but they’ll have more flexibility compared to simply operating in LTIR.

The books look pretty clean for the summer.  They have around $20MM in cap space with McMann and Laughton being the UFAs of note that would cut into that if re-signed (and if they’re still in the organization after next week).  Robertson will be due a raise as well but otherwise, GM Brad Treliving will have a lot of wiggle room heading into free agency, especially since only a few roster spots will need to be filled.  They may very well spend themselves into being right against the Upper Limit again but at the moment, Toronto is in good shape from a longer-term cap perspective.

Photos courtesy of Nick Turchiaro and Sergei Belski-Imagn Images.

View Comments (1)