Summer Synopsis: Toronto Maple Leafs

Now more than a month into the new league year, the bulk of the heavy lifting has been done from a roster perspective. Most unrestricted free agents have found new homes, the arbitration period has come and gone, and the trade market has cooled. Accordingly, it’s a good time to take a look at what each team has accomplished this offseason. Next up is a look at Toronto.

The Maple Leafs were big spenders at the trade deadline, augmenting their roster for what they hoped would be a long playoff run.  However, they were ousted in the second round by Florida, leading to the resumption of calls to shake things up.  They did just that, parting ways with one of their top players, using those savings to shore up their overall depth in the hopes that this will be the year that they take that next step forward.

Draft

2-64 – F Tinus Luc Koblar, Leksand (Sweden U20)
3-86 – F Tyler Hopkins, Kingston (OHL)
5-137 – F William Belle, U.S. U18 (NTDP)
5-153 – F Harry Nansi, Owen Sound (OHL)
6-185 – D Rylan Fellinger, Flint (OHL)
7-217 – F Matthew Hlacar, Kitchener (OHL)

The Maple Leafs took a unique approach to this year’s draft. They leaned into projectable floors, rather than high ceilings, in what was widely considered a shallow draft class. That approach did elicit some surprise, namely Luc Koblar’s selection at the end of the second-round. The lanky, high-tempo Norwegian was considered a mid-round pick across many public and private draft boards, though many claimed that was due to a lack of attention rather than a lack of skill. He does boast smooth skills in his 6-foot-3, 190-pound frame – with capable and quick skating and stickhandling. That foundation, and a snappy ability in the middle lane, could leave Luc Koblar just a few years away from a meaningful pro role. He’ll define his long-term potential with how well he adds a stronger first step, and sharper physical presence.

Toronto curbed a confident reach in the second-round by selecting a scout’s favorite in the third. Hopkins was praised by many for his simple, effective, and imposing drive throughout the Kingston Frontenacs season. He plays heavier than his 6-foot-1, 179-pound frame suggests, and showed a strong ability to keep tempo with smaller and faster linemates. He’ll offer the upside of an all-three-zones, physical presence. The same can be said about Belle and Nansi, the former a high-motor forechecker who began his hockey journey in China; and the latter a growing support winger. Both Fellinger and Hlacar will offer hard-hitting ability to round out a class of unexciting, but seemingly projectable, draft picks.

Trade Acquisitions

F Dakota Joshua (from Vancouver)
F Matias Maccelli (from Utah)
F Nicolas Roy (from Vegas)
D Henry Thrun (from San Jose)

With the understanding that Mitch Marner was likely heading to Vegas one way or the other via either a sign-and-trade or free agency, GM Brad Treliving was at least able to salvage something out of the situation with Roy’s acquisition.  He has reached the 30-point mark in four straight seasons, ranging between 13 and 15 goals in each of them.  More importantly, he’s a natural center, giving them a much-needed option down the middle which should allow them to use Max Domi on the wing, a position he’s better suited to playing.  Between Roy and deadline acquisition Scott Laughton, Toronto’s center group is much deeper than it has been in recent years while giving them a much bigger group of bottom-six middlemen, fitting in with Treliving’s goal of getting the team tougher to play against.

That last bit also helps justify the acquisition of Joshua on a buy-low pickup from Vancouver.  He’s only one year removed from a breakout 18-goal, 32-point campaign but last season was a struggle as he worked his way back from testicular cancer plus some nagging in-season injuries.  If all goes according to plan, he’ll help out their depth scoring and penalty killing.

Treliving also bought low on Maccelli, grabbing him from Utah for a conditional third-round pick.  Last season was a tough one as he slid down the depth chart but two years ago, he was fourth in Calder Trophy voting.  In between those two years, he finished third on the Coyotes in scoring with 57 points.  He has shown legitimate top-six upside early in his career and with Marner gone, they’ll be counting on him to help replace some of the playmaking that they lost.

UFA Signings

F Travis Boyd (one year, $775K)*
F Benoit-Olivier Groulx (two years, $1.55MM)
F Vinni Lettieri (one year, $775K)
D Dakota Mermis (two years, $1.55MM)
F Michael Pezzetta (two years, $1.55MM)

* denotes two-way contract

After making a splash on the open market last summer with some moves on the back end, Toronto’s free agent activity was on the depth front this time around.  Of the above signings, only Pezzetta was on an NHL roster for the entire season and he played in just 25 games.  However, he had been more of a regular on the fourth line with Montreal for the previous three years and has 200 games at the top level under his belt.  He’s someone who will be in a battle for a spot at the back of the NHL roster.

The Group Six UFA market wasn’t particularly strong this year and most players went from being on low-cost two-way contracts to being on low-cost two-way contracts with another organization.  Groulx was one of the exceptions, securing a two-year, one-way agreement with Toronto.  He’s only a year removed from playing in 45 games with Anaheim but he didn’t get a sniff of action at the top level last season, instead playing exclusively with AHL Hartford.  The team is likely eyeing him for depth with the AHL’s Marlies but he could be an under-the-radar add.

Experience is the name of the game with their other pickups.  Boyd has a pair of 30-point-plus seasons in the NHL under his belt in nearly 300 games but has been more of an AHL regular in recent years and is likely ticketed to be a big scorer with the Marlies.  Lettieri was a regular with Boston for a good chunk of the second half of last season which helped earn him a one-way salary but he’s probably heading for the AHL as well.  Mermis was claimed off waivers twice last season although it didn’t help him play much in the NHL as he suited up just four times.  He’ll be among their more experienced recall options in the minors, assuming he gets through waivers unclaimed in training camp.

RFA Re-Signings

F Matthew Knies (six years, $46.5MM)
F Nicholas Robertson (one year, $1.825MM)
D William Villeneuve (one year, $775K)*

* denotes two-way contract

Speculated as a potential offer sheet candidate had he made it to July 1st, the Maple Leafs made sure that Knies didn’t get there, agreeing to terms of this contract not long after the draft.  In his two full NHL seasons, he has worked his way into being a legitimate top-line winger and at 22, there’s still room for optimism that he has another level to get to offensively.  In an ideal world, they would have been able to get him locked up for longer as they ultimately only picked up one extra year of club control with this contract but the price tag to do so would have pushed past the $8MM AAV mark which would have limited their flexibility to add other pieces.  With Auston Matthews still having three years left on his deal, two-thirds of Toronto’s top line will be in place for at least that long.

Robertson came pretty close to going to an arbitration hearing but the two sides were able to get this deal done beforehand.  He put up a career-best 15 goals in 69 games last season despite averaging only 12 minutes a night which helped him nearly double his previous price tag.  Nonetheless, his future with the Maple Leafs still seems a little murky, especially with his trade request from a couple of years ago but this agreement buys both Robertson and the team a little more time to assess his long-term fit.

Departures

F Nicholas Abruzzese (Tampa Bay, one year, $775K)*
F Roni Hirvonen (signed with Karpat, Liiga)
F Pontus Holmberg (Tampa Bay, two years, $3.1MM)
D Mikko Kokkonen (signed with Linkoping, SHL)
F Mitch Marner (trade with Vegas)
D Nicolas Mattinen (signed with Adler, DEL)
G Matt Murray (Seattle, one year, $1MM)
D Topi Niemela (signed with Malmo, SHL)
F Max Pacioretty (unsigned)
F Ryan Reaves (trade with San Jose)
F Alex Steeves (Boston, one year, $850K)
F Ty Voit (contract termination, signed with Utah, ECHL)

* denotes two-way contract

Toronto’s summer was overcast by the departure of star winger Marner, coming off the first 100-point season of his career. He was traded to Vegas after agreeing to a max-term, eight-year extension with the Maple Leafs. The sign-and-trade netted Toronto centerman Nicolas Roy as a consolation, though Marner’s presence will be hard to replace on a night-to-night basis. Luckily, Toronto was able to get through the rest of the off-season without many notable changes to their NHL roster. Holmberg will vacate a hardy role in the team’s bottom-six, after netting 19 points in 68 games last season. Pacioretty also helped filled space on the wings, though he was limited to only 13 points and 37 games on the season by a long-term, lower-body injury. The Leafs also landed a positive return for Reaves, who filled the enforcer role through 35 games last season.

The Leafs otherwise enter the season unscathed, replacing much of their minor-league turnover with an active summer. They will maintain the NHL rights for Hirvonen and Niemela through their move to Finland, opening the door for the club to still bank on the former second and third round picks. Steeves and Abruzesse will look to jump above their AHL roles after sitting near the top of Toronto Marlies scoring over the last few seasons. Meanwhile, Murray will look to continue his return from bilateral hip surgery, after posting an encouraging 10-5-4 record and .934 save percentage in 21 AHL games this season. Murray contributed a 15-9-2 record and .901 save percentage over 28 games, and three seasons, with the Leafs.

Key Extensions

F Steven Lorentz (three years, $4.05MM)
F John Tavares (four years, $17.56MM)

Toronto’s summer kicked off on a high note when former captain Tavares signed a team-friendly extension, with an annual cap hit of just $4.38MM. The deal didn’t change the Leafs’ chances at retaining Marner, but landing Tavares at a salary nearly $7MM cheaper than last year did support the team’s push to sign Knies long-term. Tavares continued to produce at a top-level last season, with 38 goals and 74 points in 75 games. He’ll be a true discount headed into next season, where he’ll chase his 1,200th NHL game (currently at 1,184) and 500th goal (currently at 494).

Lorentz will also stick in Toronto, after playing through his first year with the club last season. He finished the year with 19 points in 80 games, operating out of a fourth-line role. This deal is just the second three-year deal of Lorentz’s career. It’s a nice bode of confidence for a depth, two-way winger who has already won a Stanley Cup with the 2024 Florida Panthers, and a Calder Cup with 2019 Charlotte Checkers. He has 62 points in 310 career NHL games, and hasn’t appeared in the minor-leagues since 2020.

Salary Cap Outlook

After years of operating with often multiple players on LTIR, the Maple Leafs project to have $1.919MM in regular cap space heading into the season, per PuckPedia.  That’s not enough to add anyone of consequence in free agency which is why they’re believed to be shopping some of their extra forwards while also being linked to UFA Jack Roslovic if they can free up the money to sign him.  If that doesn’t come to fruition, they’re at least in a spot where they can afford a couple of injury recalls before needing to rely on emergency cap-exempt ones.  That might not sound like much but that’s a big step up from where they have been.  And if they’re able to stay relatively healthy, Treliving might have a bit of wiggle room to work with at deadline time.

Key Questions

Can The Team Replace Marner’s Production? No matter where you stand on Marner moving on, the Maple Leafs still face the challenge of replacing over 100 points. To offset the loss of not only Marner’s offensive production but also his steady two-way play, Treliving prioritized depth signings over chasing a big-name free agent. However, none of those additions bring proven offensive capabilities at the NHL level. To truly offset Marner’s production, the team will likely look for continued growth from players who were already on the roster. This includes the continued rise of the recently extended Knies, who could continue to grow in his age-23 season. The same expectations could be placed on Robertson, who flashed potential with 15 goals in 69 games last season. Trade acquisitions like Roy and Joshua should also be able to chip in. Either way, it’s going to take a committee approach to replace what Marner provided every night.

Is The Goaltending Strong Enough? Joseph Woll is coming off of a solid season, where he posted a solid .909 save percentage, right in line with his career average of .910. However, he struggled with an .886 save percentage in the playoffs, surrendering 23 goals through seven games. Backup Anthony Stolarz fared better in his seven postseason appearances, posting a .901 save percentage, but it too was a far cry from his robust .926 save percentage through 34 regular season appearances. While the duo found success in the regular season — guiding the team to 108 points and an Atlantic Division title — key questions remain: can they elevate their game in the playoffs, steal a must-win game, or go toe-to-toe with the likes of  Sergei Bobrovsky?

Can This Team End The Streak? When the Maple Leafs last won the Stanley Cup, Frank and Nancy Sinatra topped the music charts and the Super Bowl hadn’t even been invented. After 57 years without a championship, the question of when the drought will end only grows louder. So, can this roster, as it stands, can finally get over the hump? The Leafs certainly appear to have the offensive firepower to contend with the top teams in the league. The team finished seventh in the league in goals for last season, and still have stars like Matthews, Taveres, and William Nylander leading the way. But does the team have the depth, defense, and goaltending needed to truly make a run?

PHR’s Brian La Rose and Paul Griser also contributed to this post.