Free agency is now just a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Lightning.
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
F Steven Stamkos – An unrestricted free agent for the second time in his career, the Lightning should be able to find a way to keep their captain this offseason. Earlier in the year, Stamkos was publicly upset with Tampa Bay’s management due to not having an extension before the start of the 2023-24 NHL season, but those tempers should have cooled. At 34 years old, Stamkos should still command a multi-year contract from the Lightning (or any team), which should lower his yearly AAV for the cap-strapped organization. Stamkos is a veteran of 1082 regular season games with two Stanley Cup rings under his belt and is coming off the seventh 40-goal season of his career. If he were to entertain the idea of leaving Tampa Bay this summer, plenty of teams would come calling.
F Anthony Duclair – After coming to the organization at the trade deadline from the San Jose Sharks, Duclair quickly became one of the better trade pickups this season. His trade value increased slightly in his last 10 games in the Bay Area, scoring seven goals and 10 points leading up to the trade with the Lightning. After being acquired by the organization, Duclair became a solid offensive contributor, scoring eight goals and 15 points in only 17 games in Tampa Bay. Although he carries plenty of value as a complimentary offensive piece, Duclair may be unable to extend his stay with the Lightning unless he takes a slight pay cut on his recent $3MM salary.
D Matt Dumba – Much like Duclair, Dumba was also acquired at the trade deadline, this time from the Arizona Coyotes. Unfortunately, with another change of scenery failing to bring out anything in his game, it appears the Lightning and Dumba will not continue their relationship. After being acquired from the Coyotes, Dumba suited up in 18 games for Tampa Bay, only tallying two assists while averaging 18:39 of ice time per night. On the open market, Dumba should be able to fetch a guaranteed contract from a team desperate for defensive depth, but it will not be anywhere close to his $3.9MM AAV after a tough 2023-24 season.
Other UFAs: F Tyler Motte, F Austin Watson, D Calvin de Haan, D Haydn Fleury, G Jonas Johansson
Projected Cap Space
This is where things have been tricky in Tampa Bay for the last several years. The team was already a little tight on cap flexibility heading into the offseason and then acquired defenseman Ryan McDonagh and his $6.75MM AAV from the Nashville Predators with no money going the other way. Thanks to the trade for McDonagh, the Lightning will have a little over $5MM to work with unless another move is made to free up space. Since the trade for McDonagh, and the team’s noted desire to keep Stamkos, trade rumors have circled over the past few days around Tanner Jeannot and his $2.665MM salary for the 2024-25 NHL season, although nothing is concrete at this point. Ultimately, Stamkos could surprise us all and take a well-below-market contract to keep the team competitive through his twilight years in the NHL, but that seems unlikely at this point. However, if the Lightning do end up freeing some cap space this summer, they have players to move without completely shaking the integrity of the lineup.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Adding more age, like McD isn’t going to help, especially with that salary considering the cap issues already. Can’t see Stamkos playing for anyone else and I’m sure they’ll work something out.
Bring back Ryan McDonagh was necessary. They lack experience on the defensive unit this past year & it showed. McDonagh still has a couple more good years left in him. He’s only 34 not 39 here. Too many people act like once a player hits 30 years of age his career is nearly done & he’s going to rapidly decline which is entirely inaccurate. Also, McDonagh is really good with working with younger guys so players like Darren Raddysh, Emil Lilliberg, Max Crozier & such will learn a lot from him just ask Mikhail Sergachev & Erik Cernak.
Never say never. Lightning will have to clear out another $4 million at the minimum.
To sign Stamkos, they just need to get their cap space around $6 to $7 million. They are at $5.03 million now. The belief going around is Stamkos will sign with TBL at a discount for around $6 to $6.5 million on a 3 to 4 year deal.
TBL is more than likely moving Tanner Jeannot’s $2.66 million AAV & Connor Sheary’s $2 million AAV (but that one can’t happen until after June 15th) which would bring their cap to $9.69 million. They could potentially move Nick Perbix’s $1.12 million AAV as well to bring their cap to $10.81 million.
Either way, they will be making a few moves between now & July 1st to clear cap space to sign Stamkos & potentially sign a few low cost scoring depth pieces during free agency.
Of course, someone might get hurt.
At a team-worst -21 Stammer is a defensive liability. What do they need his goals for if they get more scored against because he doesn’t do defensive work? It will only get worse down the line.
Pens, Caps and Bolts all have the same problem – they live in the past. Their decisions are made looking in the past, not the present. All 3 are doomed to years of mediocrity.
+/- is an overrated stat bud. Stamkos is still very good. Tampa’s core is also way younger than the Pens and Caps cores.
He USED to be good. 2 years ago he was really good and a +24. Last year a -5. This year a -21. He’s still scoring but at an ever increasing cost to the team. He no longer has enough gas to both score and defend. As he’s getting older, his scoring also is going to nosedive. This time next year, any multi-year deal will look clearly bad for the team.