It has been an incredible first half for Erik Karlsson. The two-time Norris Trophy winner has 56 points through 44 games, and leads the entire league in even-strength scoring. He’s healthy, playing more than 25 minutes a game, and looks a lot more like the player that the San Jose Sharks paid for in 2018.
That cost is what usually comes up in any conversation about Karlsson’s time in San Jose. The Sharks sent Dylan DeMelo, Chris Tierney, Rudolfs Balcers, Joshua Norris and a package of draft picks that ended up being Tim Stutzle, Zack Ostapchuk, and Jamieson Rees. Talk about a haul.
All that and they still needed to sign Karlsson long-term. That ended up looking like an eight-year, $92MM contract that essentially took him out of any further trade talks for the next few years. Not only did he have a full no-move clause, but Karlsson’s $11.5MM cap hit was a conversation-ender – at least when he was struggling with injuries and inconsistency.
But with his performance this season, that may have changed. Rumors have swirled all season about a potential move, ever since general manager Mike Grier admitted that he would listen to any callers. Now, speaking with Corey Masisak of The Athletic, Grier confirms that the Karlsson trade market is real (at least in theory):
There is interest in him. There’s some teams who have reached out about him. I think it’s only natural for teams to kick the tires, and it’s my job to listen to all the offers and see what I think is best for the organization short term and long term.
Any deal would be an incredibly difficult puzzle to sort out, given all the factors involved. Trade protection. High salary. Several years left. Lots to get in the way of talks. Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff breaks down the whole situation, including a potential asking price.
Reports indicated the Sharks are looking for three first-round picks, and are only willing to retain 18% of his remaining contract. But Grier threw some cold water on those numbers when speaking with Masisak:
I’m not going to really get into what we’re asking for, but I don’t think that’s totally accurate. Whatever it would be, it would have to be an offer that we feel makes us stronger in the future and gives us the ability to help kind of turn this thing around quicker. It’s got to be something that makes sense for us as an organization.
Given the unprecedented nature of a player like this being dealt at this point in his career (and contract), it’s a mystery what that return could actually look like. Some would argue that just getting out from under the contract itself would be enough to make sense for San Jose, given their current situation.
The Sharks sit 28th in the league, without any real hope to turn things around soon. No matter how well Karlsson is playing, it’s not enough to put them in contention.
Could he help another team reach that goal? It’s going to be a difficult move to make, even if they do get his blessing.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
3 1st’s and only retaining 18%, dream on.
Someone will do it. The guy has been a monster this season.
I dunno what the ask is per se but lets be logical instead of whatever you are being:
– Retaining 18% means he carries a 9.43m contract.
– He’s a top 6 scorer in the league.
– He’s miles ahead of every other Dman.
– 2 time Norris winner and a shoe in at this point to be 3 time.
Now let’s put up some comparables on the current points tables and their contracts:
– Matt Tkachuk (52 – $9.5m 7 seasons)
– Kyle Connor (53 – $7.1m 3 years)
– Erik Karlsson (56 – $9.4m 4 years)
– Tage Thompson (57 – $7.1m 7 years (great risk by Buffalo)
– David Pastrnak (58 – $6.7m – UFA about to get 8 figures)
– Jason Robertson (60 – $7.75m 3 seasons (was RFA signed bridge))
– Nikita Kucherov (61 – $9.5m 4 seasons)
All I ask is, it is crazy to think anyone on this list wouldn’t need to get 3 1st rounders to acquire? The price sounds right to me. Substitute as you like – 2 firsts and a top prospect, 1 first, 1 top prospect and a couple of roster players etc – the price is in no way a dream at a contract cost of 9.5m.
Thats all fine and dandy. Great work by the way. But NOBODY in serious playoff contention can afford to fit that contract in . They will definitely need to retain more then 18%. Atleast double that. Unless Buffalo decides they want to be a player for him
That is not the point. The point is the price is right for a trade of this players talent at a contract of 9.5m.
Do you think A team acquiring Kucherov would get a discount just because they can’t fit his cap? The onus is on the team acquiring to pay for the salary retention so the cost would be 3 1st rounders + likely cap ballast to SJS and THEN still involve another team retaining salary and for the size and term you’d likely be looking at another 1st rounder + to take on a few million for 4 years.
The cost of the player is fair – if a team wants to acquire him they need to sort out their own cap issues. That might make the trade unlikely but doesn’t make the trade cost a dream.
@devil – Dahlin is 8 points behind him for all defenseman with 4 fewer games played. Wouldn’t call that miles. Also, you compared his salary to all forwards – not do the same against defensemen and where he stands. He’s having a great year, but the past few plus his injury history makes a deal like that seem deep, especially for the years remaining which isn’t always pretty when you’re on the wrong side of 30+.
@ Padam – Some good points to take into consideration. Those 8 points of Dahlin do make him about 15% behind Karlsson so it’s fair daylight still. I’m not sure the the D vs F matters? If anything, the ability to generate that level of offence with some defensive value is a good thing (I know his D is shaky at times but it isn’t straight up awful). By comparison, I’m not sure many on that list of F are particularly reliable in on D thus providing 2 way depth. It’d be an interesting question to chew over with a few real GMs to see how they value that. I don’t think there is too much concern with his age to be honest – it’s fairly common to see offensive D-men playing well until they are 36 and beyond. Burns, Giordano, Niedermeyer, Zubov, Lidstrom, Rafalski, Pronger, Leech. And before you say yeah yeah but they are all HoFers – Karlsson will be too some day and a bunch of the players above did deal with significant injuries in their careers. I think the defensive d-men and grinders end up with much shorter careers than O-Dmen as they get into more gritty play.
I’d believe a trade more like this to be along the lines of what teams would look for:
To SJS:
2023 1st, 2024 1st, 2025 1st, Semyon Varlamov
To NYI:
Erik Karlsson (25% retained), James Reimer (50% retained)
No third team required.
Not saying this is real – highly unlikely considering all 3 players need to waive a NMC – just showing how you don’t need a third team necessarily.
Like you said, BUF can fit him outright. PIT could send back Dumoulin + Zucker. SEA could send back Vince Dunn. WSH could send back Orlov. WPG could send back Dillon (or even substitute out a 1st for Pierre Luc Dubois if he will sign a contract (highly unlikely).
There are many options. Even before salary retention.
Even Detroit: Hronek, 2024 1st, Kubelik and 2023 Blues 2nd
Kubelik should interest them if they sell off Timo, and he has a low cap hit.
I can’t see Stevie doing this, as Detroit is a couple years away from trying to acquire such a player. Stevie would be looking for younger players.
He’s still a liability defensively and some nights a major liability.