Although they surely didn’t mean to, the Buffalo Sabres took some of the fun out of the stretch run this season by eliminating “tanking” storylines. Barring a stunning finish to their season (vs. NYI, at PIT, at PIT), the Sabres and their 33 points to date will finish as the wire-to-wire worst team in the NHL this season and will have the top odds in the NHL Draft Lottery.
Fortunately, that doesn’t mean there isn’t still some intrigue to the end of the season for the league’s bottom-dwellers. The race for 30th-place, the second-best lottery odds, is more important this year than most. The team finishing 29th and up this season will not have the lottery odds that typically correspond to their finish in the league standings. This is because the Seattle Kraken, the NHL’s new expansion team, will lay claim to the third-best odds. Changes to the draft lottery structure also means that the team finishing in 30th place can pick no later than fourth overall, but the team finishing in 29th place could fall as far as sixth overall this year.
Who do you think will finish 30th this year and secure those valuable second-best lottery odds? Better yet, which team has the incentive to actually “tank” their final few games in hopes of landing just behind the Sabres?
Anaheim Ducks (39 points)
Schedule: at STL, at STL, at MIN, at MIN
The Ducks are the only team in the NHL still statistically capable of finishing in last place. However, that would require the Sabres taking at least five of their final six points while the Ducks take two or less of their final eight (with the tie-breakers falling in Anaheim’s favor as well). With that said, the Ducks do have the best case for 30th right now. Their final four games are all on the road against West Division contenders. Two points back of the New Jersey Devils, who have a slightly lighter schedule, and even more so behind the other “tanking” contenders, Anaheim’s sights are set on that second-to-last finish. The one thing that could stop their pursuit: the Ducks are heating up at the wrong time; their 4-6-0 stretch in their last ten games is the best mark among the bottom five records in the NHL.
New Jersey Devils (41 points)
Schedule: vs. BOS, at NYI, at NYI, at PHI
Lottery winners in two of the past four drafts, the Devils have a taste for top picks and surely want to add to their collection of top prospects. New Jersey is “chasing” Anaheim, who has the same number of games remaining but have two points and an all-road schedule exclusively against playoff teams. However, the Devils have three playoff teams left on the docket as well and are unlikely to pick up any extra points in extra time with an 0-5 record in overtime and the shootout this season. Even losing out doesn’t guarantee the Devils 30th place, nor does a tie with Anaheim in the final standings given New Jersey’s regulation wins edge. Stranger things have happened though and both the Devils and Ducks have plenty of hockey still to play.
Columbus Blue Jackets (44 points)
Schedule: vs. NSH, vs. DET, vs. DET
The Blue Jackets have one fewer game left than the Ducks and Devils, which could benefit them. However, they also sit five and three points ahead respectively and the odds of picking up zero additional points with two games left against fellow bottom-feeder Detroit seems unlikely. What the Blue Jackets do have that the others don’t though is motivation. The Columbus pipeline is below average and vastly pales in comparison to Anaheim, New Jersey, and Detroit. The team could desperately use an elite prospect and may be willing to lose their final games in order to improve their odds of doing so.
Detroit Red Wings (45 points)
Schedule: at CLB, at CLB
Detroit has just two games left and they are both against a fellow un-contender. The Red Wings may have a one point lead on Columbus, but most would still bet on the Blue Jackets and it would not be a surprise to see Detroit finish the season as they stand now. However, that still means that Anaheim would need seven of eight points and New Jersey would need at least four of eight points in order to finish 30th. After the Red Wings got a raw deal in the lottery last season, maybe the hockey gods will look out for them. That might be the only way they finish second-to-last and occur a top-four pick again this season.
the Flyers will find a way
Quack.
Yeah. Feels like ducks to me.
Which is odd, cause on a better team, Gibson could win a cup.
Gibson is overrated
As a Blue Jackets fan, I was kind of hoping they’d tank and finish 29th or 30th, but a recent 5 game point streak has blown that all to hell. The fact someone has to win the two games they play this weekend take both the Jackets and Wings out of contention. Because St. Louis is still fighting to clinch a playoff spot, I think they’ll sweep Anaheim. So Anaheim gets the nod.
Who cares? BAN TOM WILSON!
There are 31 teams
Yes, but as mentioned in the article, Buffalo pretty much has 31st locked down.
Don’t sleep on the Canucks, who have a schedule that is just brutal…
Would not be shocking if they went 0-for, but even 3 points (1-9-1 to finish out) puts them at 44, right in range of Anaheim and New Jersey