PHR Mailbag: Draft Trades, Bruins, Capitals, Bennett, Stars

The first mailbag of the postseason takes a closer look at one of the top pending free agents, the coaching market, and much more.

Connorsoxfan: Why aren’t NHL teams as active with trading up and down on draft day as NFL teams are?

It wasn’t all that long ago that there were a lot of trades on draft day in the NHL but that has fallen by the wayside as of late.  I don’t expect it to really change much in the near future either, especially as the salary cap continues to force teams to put more young, entry-level salaried players in the lineup to stay in compliance with the Upper Limit.

In the NFL, quite a few teams believe in the draft pick value chart.  If the ‘value’ of two or more lesser picks equals the higher one, some teams are willing to make that swap.  That doesn’t seem to be too prevalent in the NHL.  Back in 2011, Michael Schuckers of Stat Sports Consulting put together an NHL equivalent value chart and the conclusion pretty much drawn from that is that trading up usually doesn’t make a whole lot of sense; it appears a lot of teams are in agreement with that.

Generally speaking, there is a big variability in draft lists beyond the first round.  A final draft list for teams heading into the draft may only be 50-75 players long and they’ll still get players on that list in the sixth and seventh rounds.  Accordingly, why should a team give up an extra pick or two to move up a little bit when there’s a decent chance the player they want will still be on the board?

Another factor is that the opportunities to acquire younger talent are much more prevalent in the NFL.  There are a large number of undrafted players that sign as free agents that either land on a practice squad or sometimes even crack the active 53-man roster.  In the NHL, undrafted players are often signed to be depth players; there is the odd diamond in the rough but most players wind up just being fillers years down the road.  The best shot to get top young talent that will have an impact with the big club sooner than later is the draft so teams aren’t going to willingly surrender extra chances as frivolously as they were in the past.

Not all that long ago, the draft was one of the more active trading times in June but now, it feels like the opposite is true.  There will be an influx in the days leading up to it and some after before free agency opens up but for the foreseeable future, draft day isn’t going to feature a lot of trade activity.

@NicholasAlexa14: Do you think The Boston Bruins have a chance at John Carlson or John Tavares in NHL free agency this offseason?

I can’t see Boston being too active in a pursuit of Tavares.  With Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, and David Backes (a natural center playing the wing) all signed to big money deals, there isn’t a major need to add Tavares.  Of course, they could trade one of them to make room if they had to but there are other priorities to address.

Carlson, meanwhile, would be a more interesting fit.  He would lock in Boston’s right side (with Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo) for years to come and that’s a strong one-two-three group.  He’d also give them another workhorse as realistically, Zdeno Chara can’t keep leading them in ice time for much longer.  The only concern I might have is that they might have too many offense-first defenders with Carlson, McAvoy, and Torey Krug but even if GM Don Sweeney thought that was the case, teams would be lining up to alleviate Boston of that ‘problem’.  It’s an intriguing fit, especially since he’s from the area.

ThePriceWasRight: If Washington is eliminated in the first round, when do they restructure the team and stop blaming the coaching?

And who do you see making a pitch for Carlson?

Considering everything GM Brian MacLellan has said publicly regarding the coaching staff dating back to last offseason, an early exit is probably going to result in a change behind the bench regardless of what happens with the roster.  I do agree, however, that if they get eliminated this round, it may be time to change up the core.  What could Washington get for Nicklas Backstrom, a bona fide number one center locked up for two more years at a team-friendly rate?  With Evgeny Kuznetsov proving himself to be a top-liner as well, that’s a strength they could deal from and either address some holes on the roster or set themselves up nicely down the road.  With this much top-end talent, the lack of depth that results from it is certainly a factor that they may want to try to address.

As for Carlson, MacLellan has said they’d like to keep him around but that’s going to be tough to accomplish given their salary cap situation.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Vegas took a run at him over making another pitch for Erik Karlsson as effectively a one-year rental to give them a true top-pairing defender.  Buffalo is in need of help on the back end so I expect they’ll make a pitch.  If Thomas Dundon greenlights more spending in Carolina, I think they’ll kick the tires, especially with Justin Faulk a couple of years away from free agency; adding Carlson could allow them to move Faulk.  New Jersey still needs help on the back end so they’ll be it in as well – it was only a year ago that they made the top financial offer for Kevin Shattenkirk.  There will surely be quite a few other teams as well but these ones should be in the mix at the very least.

Pawtucket: What is Calgary going to do with Sam Bennett?

It’s safe to say that things haven’t gone well for Bennett in his first three full NHL years.  The fourth-overall pick back in 2014 has shown signs of brilliance and others where he has looked out of place.  The end result has been a position change (from center to the left wing) but it didn’t yield much improvement as his 11 goals this past season were a career-low.

While the Flames could certainly look to cut bait with the 21-year-old, they’d be doing so with his value about as low as it has been.  That’s not an ideal situation to be in.  Instead, it makes more sense for them to hold onto Bennett for one more year.  Perhaps their new head coach finds a way to get more out of him and gets him back on the right track.  If not, then he enters restricted free agency without a lot of leverage and perhaps at that time, a trade makes more sense; it’s not as if his value would drop much lower than it currently is.  Calgary has shown a lot of patience already with their former top prospect and they’d be wise to do so for one more year at least.

@ZonaNitro67: Who’s the next Stars coach?

GM Jim Nill’s first two hires have been veterans in Lindy Ruff and Ken Hitchcock.  He also came from an environment in Detroit that favored veteran coaches (Scotty Bowman and Mike Babcock were the mainstays during that time).  As a result, on the surface, it would certainly be reasonable to assume that he may be inclined to look for someone with experience.  Alain Vigneault is a speculative candidate but Blues associate coach Craig Berube and former Ducks assistant Paul MacLean (who Nill is familiar with from their days in Detroit where MacLean was an assistant for six years) should be in the mix as well.  Dan Bylsma is on the market as well and has experience with a team with a lot of firepower from his days with Pittsburgh.

Some of the comments made following Hitchcock’s retirement suggested that the team may be more open to bringing in someone with no experience.  That would have people like Sheldon Keefe (Toronto) and Benoit Groulx (Tampa Bay) in the mix as well as college coaches like Jim Montgomery (Denver) and David Quinn (Boston University).

However, given that the Stars are a veteran-laden team with a lot of firepower up front, I have a hard time thinking that Nill will hand the keys to the team to a rookie bench boss.  This is a team built to win now so I think someone with NHL experience will be the way he prefers to go.  Berube is going to be a popular candidate this summer and he could be the fit here but if not him, I could see MacLean getting the nod.  He had some success in his last stint with Ottawa and the existing relationship he has with Nill won’t hurt either.  MacLean may be a shorter-term coach but with the way the team is currently constructed, that might not be a bad thing.

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