College Hockey Round-Up: 03/09/22

Tournament time has arrived! Saturday marked the end of the regular season slate for Hockey East and the NCHC, while the other conferences are already underway on their individual postseasons. All six conference tournaments have different formats and will move at their own pace, but it all leads up to the NCAA Tournament selection show on March 20, Regionals on March 24-27, and the Frozen Four in Boston from April 7-9.

Recent Results

Typically, the early match-ups in conference tournaments don’t yield major impacts to the NCAA rankings or potential National Tournament field. No. 15 Ohio State wishes that had been the case again this year. The Buckeyes were ousted from the Big Ten tournament via upset by Penn State and now face a long and possibly fruitless wait for the selection show in two weeks. Ranked No. 12 before the first round knockout, Ohio State is now soundly in bubble territory and can do nothing to change their position.

While No. 2 Minnesota had a bye, other Big Ten contenders in No. 4 Michigan and No. 8 Notre Dame advanced alongside Penn State, although Wisconsin gave the Fighting Irish a run for their money. Michigan and Notre Dame are set to square off in the semifinals this weekend.

Elsewhere in conference tournament play, No. 1 Minnesota State and No. 13 Michigan Tech moved on in the CCHA Tournament (though not as easily as expected); meanwhile, No. 6 Quinnipiac, No. 17 Clarkson, and No. 18 Cornell received byes in the first round of the ECAC Tournament, as did Atlantic favorite American International in that tournament.

Hockey East ended the regular season in style with a series of results that vaulted No. 11 Northeastern into the top seed in the conference and to the top national rank in the conference as well. Much of the disarray was due to a stunning sweep by unranked Boston College over No. 12 UMass, who surrendered a regular season Hockey East title that looked to be a lock. No. 14 UMass Lowell also briefly looked to have a shot at a share of the top spot this past weekend as well, after sweeping New Hampshire, but Northeastern managed to sweep Merrimack as well to seal sole possession of the top spot. All three teams have a bye in the first round of the Hockey East Tournament, underway on Wednesday, but each knows that an early loss will all but cost them their NCAA bid. No. 16 Boston University suffered a surprise loss to Maine that bumped them down the national rankings and to the five seed in the conference, while No. 20 Providence somehow finishes seventh and is active in the first round. Both BU and PC know they likely need to win the conference tournament to get in.

There is much more security in the NCHC, home to five top-ten teams. Even after No. 10 Minnesota-Duluth was swept No. 9 St. Cloud State and No. 5 North Dakota managed only an overtime win and a regulation loss against No. 19 Omaha, they both remain locks for the NCAA Tournament. The NCHC Tournament will hit the ground running this weekend with a Huskies-Bulldogs rematch, as well as Omaha and No. 7 Western Michigan, while North Dakota and No. 3 Denver should have easier match-ups with Colorado College and Miami, respectively.

Bracketology

Before the conference tournaments mess with the national landscape further as they did with Ohio State, what doe a potential NCAA Tournament Field look like right now? Minnesota State, Denver, Michigan, and Minnesota look to safely have top regional seeds locked up, following recent slides by North Dakota and Quinnipiac. With that being said, the Fighting Hawks and Bobcats are also locks, as are WMU, Notre Dame, St. Cloud State, Minnesota-Duluth, and Michigan Tech. The bubble is currently very Hockey East heavy and at least two but upwards of four of the remaining slots could come from that conference. Ohio State is stuck with their current resume, while Clarkson and Cornell will also garner some consideration with a deep ECAC run. Of course, a surprise conference tournament winner on top of the automatic qualifier from the Atlantic would also shake up the field.

If the selection show occurred right now, here is how it could all shake out:

Albany, NY
Minnesota State
St. Cloud
Notre Dame
AIC

Allentown, PA
Minnesota
Quinnipiac
Minnesota Duluth
UMass Lowell

Loveland, CO
Denver
North Dakota
Michigan Tech
Ohio State

Worcester, MA
Michigan
WMU
Northeastern
UMass

Is The Hobey Baker Race Already Over?

The top ten finalists for the Hobey Baker Memorial Award, honoring the most outstanding player in NCAA men’s hockey, will be announced next Thursday, March 17. However, after a wide open race earlier this season it fair to wonder whether the title has already been clinched. Denver forward Bobby Brink (PHI) is the best scorer in college hockey right now – and it isn’t particularly close. Brink leads the NCAA in points by seven, assists by six, and points per game by 0.12. There isn’t much hope for anyone to catch him statistically, so how can they catch him for the Hobey Baker?

While there is a case to be made that teammate Carter Savoie (EDM) hurts Brinks chances, it may not be a strong enough argument. Savoie ranks tenth in points and sixth in points per game, as well as tied for sixth in goals, but Brink has far surpassed Savoie’s totals and has been the mastermind play-maker behind many of Savoie’s goals for the Pioneers.

The elite teammate case does hurt a few other contenders though. Minnesota State’s Nathan Smith (WPG) is second in points, total and per-game, and that is despite the Olympic break. He likely has the best chance of anyone to overtake Brink. However, when teammate Julian Napravnik (who was not even a Hobey Baker nominee) is right behind him in third-place in total points as well as third in plus/minus, it doesn’t help Smith’s case. And while the Mavericks are the No. 1 team in the country, their CCHA strength of schedule hurts Smith’s case as well.

Likewise, Western Michigan standout Ethen Frank is the NCAA’s leading goal scorer and among the top 25 in points, but when teammate Drew Worrad (also not nominated) is second in assists and tenth in points, it’s hard to call Frank individually the most outstanding player. While reigning second overall pick Matty Beniers (SEA) has been phenomenal for Michigan – the only player in the NCAA in the top 15 in goals, points, points per game, and plus/minus – the rest of the talent on the star-studded Wolverines lineup will make it hard for him to separate himself.

UMass forward Bobby Trivigno, coming off a National Championship, and Michigan Tech’s Brian Halonen, the leader of the season’s most surprising team, both have had excellent individual efforts this season. Trivigno is eighth in points and sixth in points per game, while Halonen is the only name to grace the top five in both goals and points. However, neither of their teams is trending toward a top-ten finish without a conference tournament win, which works against their chances.

In net, there have been some truly outstanding performances this season across the NCAA. However, it could just make for a tight Mike Richter Award race, as there has been little chatter about a goaltender battling for the Hobey Baker this season. Senior keeper Dryden McKay has yet again been the fuel to Minnesota State’s success, leading college hockey in games played and wins (by a whopping six) while currently in third in goals against average and among the top ten in save percentage. However, McKay has been excellent for year and never received much Hobey hype, certainly due in part to the Mavericks’ poor strength of schedule. Quinnipiac’s Yaniv Perets is statistically the best keeper in the NCAA with a league-leading .955 save percentage and 0.82 GAA , both of which are truly stunning marks. Yet, Perets shares the net with veteran Dylan St. Cyr, who has also found great success, making it seems as though the Bobcat’s system and a down year for the ECAC may have a lot to do with it. Northeastern’s Devon Levi has been excellent, especially during the Huskies’ late run, and is second is save percentage and fourth in GAA. Is it enough?

Brink seems to have a very strong case to take home top honors this season, but there is a lot of hockey left to play.