While Winnipeg fans are certainly disappointed that they weren’t able to bring back center Paul Stastny (even after freeing up extra room by dealing goalie Steve Mason and winger Joel Armia to Montreal), it’s not necessarily the worst outcome.
As things currently stand, the Jets have a little under $27MM in cap space to work with, per CapFriendly. However, they have quite a few restricted free agents to re-sign in goalie Connor Hellebuyck, defensemen Jacob Trouba, Josh Morrissey, and Tucker Poolman, plus forwards Adam Lowry, Marko Dano, and Brandon Tanev. (They also have a handful of AHL-bound players to re-up.)
By the time that group gets new deals, their cap space will be down to somewhere around $5MM (not quite enough for the $6.5MM AAV Stastny got from Vegas). There isn’t much left in free agency to spend that money on but looking long-term, that’s not a bad thing.
For starters, staying well below the cap means that they will have that much more room to work with when it comes to their long list of players in need for new deals next summer (including wingers Patrik Laine, Kyle Connor, and Blake Wheeler). Locking those three up alone will cost a lot more than what the Upper Limit may go up by next year; it wouldn’t be shocking to see those three come close to tripling their current combined base salary ($7.45MM) next offseason. Keeping a few million in the bank by not adding any more multi-year deals this season will certainly make it a little easier to keep the core intact.
That’s not the only benefit of keeping extra cap space this year provides, however. Laine, Connor, plus youngster Jack Roslovic combine for just over $3.7MM in potential performance bonuses. Laine and Connor each have a good chance of hitting big chunks of those while Roslovic could hit his as well depending on whether or not he slides into Stastny’s spot on a full-time basis.
It’s going to be to Winnipeg’s benefit to account for those in 2018-19 instead of using the bonus cushion to defer them until 2019-20 when their flexibility is going to basically be non-existent. To do so, they need to stay well under the cap throughout the year, something that wouldn’t have even been an option had Stastny been brought back (with no other regulars being jettisoned).
Of course, the other benefit the Jets staying $5MM or more under the cap is simply the added flexibility to make an in-season addition (preferably someone on an expiring contract) to try to add that last piece of the puzzle. This was a team that was already in contention last year before adding Stastny from St. Louis at the trade deadline and given that several of their core players are still developing, it’s reasonable to assume that they should be in contention again come the deadline in 2019. That extra cap room (plus a deep prospect pool) will give them a lot of options to try to add with; most contenders won’t have that type of flexibility come February.
It’s never easy to see a key member of a team go elsewhere, especially when they get nothing of tangible value in return. However, if there is a team out there that could sustain the loss of Stastny and not miss much of a beat, it’s Winnipeg. Right now, his departure may sting but given what’s on the horizon and how the extra cap room can absorb the bonuses without rolling over into next year, it may wind up almost being a blessing in disguise one year from now.