Offseason Checklist: Tampa Bay Lightning
The offseason has arrived for all but a handful of teams who are still taking part in the playoffs. Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Tampa Bay.
The Lightning managed to make the postseason for a seventh year in a row, but further confirmation that their contending window is coming to a close came swiftly via their cross-state rivals. The Panthers, now just one win away from advancing to the Stanley Cup Final, dispatched them in a quick five-game series, their first win in three playoff series against the Bolts. Now, with back-to-back non-elite regular seasons and a pair of first-round eliminations, general manager Julien BriseBois needs to pull off some tricks to keep the franchise from spiraling into mediocrity after its greatest stretch of success in franchise history.
Re-Sign Stamkos
BriseBois already checked one major item off his offseason checklist, acquiring some much-needed defensive help by acquiring former Bolt Ryan McDonagh from the Predators. Unfortunately, that’s created a temporary cap crunch that makes contract extension negotiations with captain Steven Stamkos much more difficult.
It isn’t the first time the future Hall-of-Famer has gotten dangerously close to becoming a UFA. Negotiations were testy after a five-year bridge deal expired in 2016, and he waited until 48 hours before the market opened to sign an eight-year, $68MM extension. With that deal now run out, Lightning fans will hope it doesn’t take that long again. It wouldn’t be a good sign for a player who, despite expressing a strong desire to remain in the only NHL market he’s ever known, was disappointed with the lack of extension talks last summer.
He’d likely take a discount on his market value, somewhere in the $8MM range annually, to stay in Tampa. But their current projected $5MM of cap space with a minimum of one other roster spot to fill likely won’t cut it, especially since he’s not eligible for performance bonuses.
They’ll need to free up space to get it done, something the rest of this checklist examines in more detail. But even as Stamkos’ even-strength numbers begin to dip, he’s a bonafide top-six winger that they don’t have the offensive depth to shoulder the loss of. He still managed to rack up over a point per game this season, recording yet another 40-goal campaign with 81 points in 79 contests. The 34-year-old was also their goal leader in the playoffs, lighting the lamp five times in five games.
Offload Bloated Forward Contracts
The Lightning reached three straight Stanley Cup Finals largely because of their cost-effective depth scoring. BriseBois has failed to continue that trend in the past two years thanks to a pair of ill-advised acquisitions.
One was much more harmful than the other, and he’s already on the trade block. BriseBois gave up five draft picks, including a first-rounder, to pick up grinder Tanner Jeannot from Nashville in a trade last year. He’s managed just eight goals and 18 points in 75 games for the Bolts since the deal and spent a good portion of the 2023-24 campaign on the shelf. Averaging fringe third-line minutes, they can’t afford to keep him at his $2.67MM cap hit next season. There’s still optimism around the league that he can rebound to his 24-goal form with the Preds two years ago, but with a 16-team no-trade list kicking in on July 1, they’ll need to move on from him in short order.
There’s also the matter of Conor Sheary, who BriseBois inked to a three-year, $6MM deal with trade protection in free agency last summer. He managed only four goals and 15 points in 57 games this season and was a healthy scratch for most of the stretch run, including all five of their playoff games. His spot in the lineup was replaced by minor-league call-up Mitchell Chaffee, who’s already inked a cost-effective extension with an $800K cap hit. His $2MM cap hit can’t be afforded for a player who provided league-minimum value this season, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see BriseBois offload him in a pure cap-dump transaction. He has a full no-trade clause at the moment, although it downgrades to a 16-team no-trade list on July 1.
Combined, the moves would bring the Lightning’s cap space to nearly $10MM, enough to re-sign Stamkos and add a low-cost depth scoring forward on the free agent market to help replace Jeannot and Sheary.
Get Another LTIR Contract
Having retired defenseman Brent Seabrook‘s contract on the books for the past two seasons was beneficial to the Bolts. After confirming he wouldn’t play again due to injury, Tampa acquired the Cup-winning defenseman’s $6.875MM cap hit from Chicago, placing him on long-term injured reserve for the past three seasons to help give them in-season spending flexibility.
That contract has now run out, though, and they’re entering the summer without anybody available to help fudge their spending limit. That doesn’t mean they can’t pull off another trade to acquire a dead contract, though. As part of their purchase of the Coyotes’ hockey operations, NHL Utah is picking up the final two seasons of injured center Bryan Little‘s contract, which carries a $7.86MM cap hit. With Utah GM Bill Armstrong having full permission from ownership to spend to the salary cap, unlike years past in Arizona, Little’s deal becomes an inhibition for Utah rather than a benefit to help them hit the cap floor.
If they have interest in selling the final two seasons of Little’s contract, expect the Lightning to engage. It wouldn’t mean much for their off-season spending, but placing him on LTIR once the season starts could give them some slight in-season recall and trade flexibility. The few other LTIR-bound contracts around the league are proving advantageous to their current clubs, such as the Golden Knights’ Robin Lehner, so Little might be BriseBois’ only option if he wants to go that route.
Upgrade Backup Goaltending
Tampa struggled defensively, ranking below average in goals against, but it wasn’t all on their skaters. Star netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy had a remarkably pedestrian season after recovering from preseason back surgery, allowing more goals than expected based on the shot quality he faced for the first time since 2015-16, per MoneyPuck. His .900 SV% was also right in line with the league average.
The four-time Vezina finalist could easily return to form after a healthy offseason, but relying on him to carry elite numbers through 60-65 appearances as he enters his 30s will become unrealistic. Throwing league-minimum backup Jonas Johansson to the wolves to start the season didn’t have good results, and he finished the campaign with a poor .890 SV% (that was still above his career average) in 26 appearances.
Waiving Johansson and spending even just $500K more on a more proven backup option in free agency could make a major difference in the standings for Tampa next season in an increasingly competitive Atlantic Division.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.
NHL Sets Arbitration, Offer Sheet Thresholds For 2024
Offer sheets haven’t overtaken offseason discourse in three years now. Only the Canadiens and Hurricanes have gotten in on the little-used RFA acquisition technique in recent years, with Montreal unsuccessfully trying to steal star center Sebastian Aho from Carolina in 2019 and the Canes gaining 2018 third-overall pick Jesperi Kotkaniemi via an unmatched one-year, $6.1MM offer.
There are some RFAs this summer that seem less-than-likely to re-sign with their current clubs, namely Hurricanes forward Martin Nečas and Canucks defenseman Filip Hronek. While both are expected to change hands via trade if they do move teams this summer, they’re both eligible to sign offer sheets if a team presents one.
Thresholds are derived from the league’s average salary, which jumped over six percent from last season. As such, the goalposts for each draft pick compensation tier have moved toward the higher-value end of the field, with PuckPedia confirming this year’s full breakdown:
| AAV | Draft picks required |
| $1.51MM or less | No compensation |
| $1.51MM to $2.29MM | Third-round pick |
| $2.29MM to $4.58MM | Second-round pick |
| $4.58MM to $6.87MM | First and third-round picks |
| $6.87MM to $9.16MM | First, second and third-round picks |
| $9.16MM to $11.45MM | Two firsts, a second and third-round picks |
| Over $11.45MM | Four first-round picks |
It is important to note that any team trying to sign a player to an applicable offer sheet must use their own draft picks for compensation, not acquired ones. That rules several teams out already from signing high-profile RFAs unless they were to work to reacquire their picks before submitting the contract.
An offer sheet’s average annual value is also calculated slightly differently than a standard contract. If the contract is longer than five years, the total salary is still divided by five to determine the AAV. That would mean a seven-year contract worth $8MM per season ($56MM total value) would carry an AAV of $11.2MM for the purposes of offer sheet compensation. For more information about the details of offer sheets, check out CapFriendly’s FAQ.
Additionally, with the league’s average salary rebounding past its pre-pandemic figure, the arbitration award required for a team to walk away from a deal has increased for the first time since 2020. That number is now roughly $4.74MM, per PuckPedia, jumping around $200K. If an arbitrator awards a one- or two-year deal with an AAV less than $4.74MM, a team must sign the contract.
Wild Fire Assistant Coach Darby Hendrickson
The Wild fired assistant coach Darby Hendrickson on Friday after a 14-year run behind the Minnesota bench, general manager Bill Guerin announced.
Hendrickson, 51, had served as an assistant since the 2010-11 season, a few years after retiring from a lengthy playing career that included suiting up for the Wild in their first four years of existence. He’d played or served under all seven head coaches in Minnesota history. However, as Michael Russo and Joe Smith of The Athletic write, he becomes a casualty of head coach John Hynes looking to reshape his staff ahead of his first entire season with the club. As Russo and Smith reported, Guerin also felt it was time for Hendrickson to move.
“I would like to thank Darby for all his hard work and commitment to the Minnesota Wild during his long tenure with our organization,” Guerin said. “He has done a tremendous amount of good things for our team and the State of Hockey as a player and a coach. I wish Darby and his family all the best in the future.”
Hendrickson has no other coaching experience outside of his run with the Wild. He’ll now be considered for the numerous assistant vacancies remaining around the league.
As for the Wild’s vacancy created by Hendrickson’s firing, Russo and Smith believe it could be filled via an internal promotion. They suggest longtime Rangers pivot Derek Stepan will be considered after he spent the season around the organization shadowing coaching and hockey operations staff. However, he didn’t hold an official role with the club. The 33-year-old Stepan retired last summer after a 13-year, 890-game career with the Coyotes, Hurricanes, Rangers and Senators.
Latest On Dakota Joshua
Canucks forward Dakota Joshua could be one of the more appealing depth scoring options on the free agent market if he doesn’t sign an extension before July 1. While both he and the team have expressed a willingness to get a new deal across the finish line, they’re not close to an agreement with one month until July 1, Rick Dhaliwal said on CHEK’s “Donnie & Dhali” earlier this week.
Negotiations with all of Vancouver’s pending free agents will likely be stuck in the mud until one of them takes a massive leap forward. General manager Patrik Allvin has one of the longest offseason to-do lists in the league. He has plenty of notable players on expiring deals. A lack of cost certainty for any of them makes it difficult to know how far they’re willing to go to retain any individual.
On the open market for the second time in his career, the breakout winger had 32 points in 63 contests for the ‘Nucks this season, a 42-point pace had he played in all 82. He backed that up with strong possession numbers while averaging 14:23 per game, the highest usage of his four-year, 184-game career.
A late bloomer, Joshua is unlikely to take much of a further step forward at age 28, but he’s not afraid to lay the body and has fully established himself as a capable, versatile middle-six forward. He averaged 1:50 per game on Vancouver’s penalty kill this year and boasted positive relative possession results (0.5 relative CF%) in the process. Evolving Hockey projects a conservative two-year, $2MM AAV deal on the open market, likely due to his lack of experience, but few would be surprised if he lands nearly twice that figure.
That wide range of possible deals makes it difficult for Allvin to commit, considering he also needs to save funds to re-sign or replace top-six center Elias Lindholm and most of his defense corps, including Ian Cole, Filip Hronek, Tyler Myers and Nikita Zadorov. The Canucks have $23.75MM in projected cap space with up to eight open roster spots, CapFriendly projects.
One team that could come calling if Joshua is available come July 1 is the Maple Leafs. They selected him 128th overall in 2014 but traded his signing rights to the Blues before getting him under contract.
If so, he’d be open to signing this time around, James Mirtle of The Athletic said during a podcast appearance Thursday. He’d be a logical fit to replace Tyler Bertuzzi in their top nine if they can’t manage to extend him before free agency opens.
Stars’ Chris Tanev Remains Uncertain For Game 5
The Stars may be without their top shutdown option on defense as they attempt to take a 3-2 series lead in the Western Conference Final over the Oilers. Chris Tanev will officially be a game-time decision for Game 5 after blocking a shot in the second period of Game 4, head coach Peter DeBoer told reporters this morning.
DeBoer said he was “optimistic” about Tanev’s ability. The veteran blue liner was seen in a walking boot while traveling back to Dallas yesterday.
If Tanev is unable to go, he may not be the only injury-related absence for the Stars tonight. DeBoer also told reporters that multiple forwards are dealing with ailments, and he likely won’t know who’s able to play until after warmup (via the team’s Bruce LeVine).
The Stars acquired Tanev, 34, from the Flames in late February for a package that included a second-round pick and defense prospect Artyom Grushnikov. While he’s only logged one assist in 17 games of postseason play, he’s been an incredibly valuable defensive presence and has averaged over 22 minutes per game.
Tanev’s +6 rating is third on the team behind Thomas Harley and Tyler Seguin (+8). He’s logged 170 minutes with Esa Lindell as his defense partner in the postseason, controlling 50.3% of expected goals, per MoneyPuck.
His absence would likely result in Nils Lundkvist entering the lineup for the first time this series. Veteran defensive specialist Jani Hakanpää remains unavailable with the lower-body injury that’s kept him out since mid-March, DeBoer said (via team radio host Owen Newkirk).
Lundkvist, 23, hasn’t played since Game 5 of the second round against the Avalanche and averaged just 4:27 per game in his 12 appearances earlier this postseason. Two other options, 2022 first-round pick Lian Bichsel and minor-league mainstay Derrick Pouliot, are rostered and theoretically available to play, although it would mark Bichsel’s NHL debut and Pouliot’s first playoff game since 2016 with the Penguins. Bichsel has been told to be prepared to play if Tanev is out, though, he told EP Rinkside’s Sean Shapiro.
Predators, Anthony Beauvillier Have Had Extension Talks
Trade deadline pickup Anthony Beauvillier is interested in signing an extension with the Predators, per a report from David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period. An agreement doesn’t appear imminent, but they’ve had positive initial discussions.
It’s no surprise that Beauvillier wants to stick in one place this summer. He was traded twice this season, splitting 2023-24 between the Canucks and Blackhawks before heading to Nashville a day before the deadline. Overall, he’s suited up for four teams over the past two years, as he headed from the Islanders to Vancouver in last season’s Bo Horvat blockbuster swap.
Also unsurprisingly, his unsteady campaign yielded some disappointing numbers on the scoresheet. The former 20-goal scorer lit the lamp only five times in 60 games this season, a career-low. He added 12 assists for 17 points with a -8 rating, a difficult showing for the pending unrestricted free agent. He turns 27 early next month.
It’s not like he had a late-season turnaround with the Preds, either. After general manager Barry Trotz sent Chicago a 2024 fifth-round pick to acquire the longtime Islander, he averaged 12:17 per game through 15 contests and had a goal and two assists with a -6 rating. He played a similarly limited top-nine role in the postseason, logging a goal and an assist in their six-game loss to the Canucks while playing just over 13 minutes per game.
Coming off a tough year, he shouldn’t cost too much to extend. Evolving Hockey projects a three-year, $2.8MM AAV deal for Beauvillier to remain in Nashville. That could be a solid bet for a player whose career numbers suggest a rebound campaign is on the way in 2024-25.
His biggest outlier this season was his shooting percentage. Beauvillier’s reduced usage did mean he wasn’t generating as many shots on goal, averaging 1.75 per game compared to 2.15 last season. But he finished at just 4.8% in 2023-24, far below his 10.9% career average. He also shot over 13% three times with the Isles, although he hasn’t finished at that rate since 2020-21.
Beauvillier isn’t exactly a two-way force, but his possession numbers haven’t been close to liability territory, either. His career 47.6 CF% at even strength is exactly in line with the averages of the teams he’s played on, and his career 49.2 xGF% is subpar but not awful.
Over his eight-year, 550-game career, Beauvillier has accumulated 116 goals and 130 assists for 246 points. That works out to a 17-goal, 37-point average in an 82-game season – fine numbers for a run-of-the-mill third-line winger. He did have a career-high 40 points split between the Isles and Canucks just one year ago.
He doesn’t move the needle much for a Predators team that struggled with impactful depth scoring this season, but he is a rebound target that wouldn’t be prohibitively expensive to retain and has more offensive upside than some of their other currently projected third- and fourth-line wingers. With $26MM in projected cap space this offseason (CapFriendly), a lack of funds won’t be an issue if they decide to kick extension talks into high gear.
Canadiens Sign Jared Davidson To Entry-Level Deal
The Canadiens have signed center Jared Davidson to a two-year, entry-level deal, per a team release. The Canadian pivot was set to become an unrestricted free agent tomorrow at 4 p.m. CT if not signed to his ELC.
Davidson, 22 in July, is coming off his first professional season for the AHL’s Laval Rocket. He made 38 appearances for the Habs’ top minor-league affiliate, scoring 11 goals and five assists for 16 points with 31 PIMs and a +1 rating.
Initially eligible for selection in the 2020 draft, he was passed over twice before landing with Montreal via the 130th overall pick in 2022. The Edmonton native spent his amateur career with the Seattle Thunderbirds of the Western Hockey League. He was a non-factor offensively in his draft year, limited to 16 points in 59 games, but had a strong run during the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season (19 points in 23 games). That prefaced a major breakout in 2021-22, learning All-Star nods after leading the T-birds in scoring with 89 points (42 goals, 47 assists) in 64 games, thus earning him draft consideration.
Financial terms of his entry-level pact weren’t initially disclosed. The two-year term carries him through the 2025-26 season, and he’ll be a restricted free agent upon expiry if tendered a qualifying offer.
Latest On Linus Ullmark
Matt Larkin of Daily Faceoff writes about four potential trade destinations for Boston Bruins goaltender Linus Ullmark. Larkin believes that the Colorado Avalanche, Los Angeles Kings, New Jersey Devils and Ottawa Senators would be the frontrunners for the services of the 2023 Vezina Trophy winner should he be moved. Ullmark reportedly blocked a move at the trade deadline in March and has a 15-team no-trade list that could impede a potential trade this summer. Larkin’s list is largely based on speculation, but on the surface, it makes sense, given that the four teams on it were all undone by inconsistent goaltending this season.
In Colorado, Alexandar Georgiev didn’t have a very good regular season for the Avalanche and fell apart in the playoffs with an .894 save percentage. The story was similar in Los Angeles where Cam Talbot and David Rittich both had good regular seasons but couldn’t give the team enough to get out of the first round. The Kings pursued Ullmark prior to the deadline but were unable to complete a deal due to the netminders no trade list.
Ottawa and New Jersey aren’t surprising possibilities for Ullmark as they were two teams that came into the season with playoff expectations but were let down by some of the worst goaltending in the NHL. Ottawa signed netminder Joonas Korpisalo to a five-year $20MM contract last July in the hopes that he would steady their goaltending situation, however, the first year of the deal was a flop and Korpisalo finished second to last in the league in goals saved above expected with a -16.1 (according to Money Puck). Mads Sogaard and Anton Forsberg also appeared for the Senators this season and struggled as well.
New Jersey didn’t fare much better as Vitek Vanecek lost his game and finished near the bottom of the league in goals saved above expected with -11.2. Akira Schmid also saw his play fall off and found himself in the AHL for a big chunk of the season. The team brought in Jake Allen at the trade deadline from Montreal, but with one year left on his contract, the 33-year-old is more of a stopgap for the Devils and would be a terrific backup should they acquire Ullmark.
With his limited no-trade clause, Ullmark will have some say in where he ends up this summer, but won’t have full control. He is just a year out from becoming an unrestricted free agent once again and can choose his preferred destination in the summer of 2025.
Jaccob Slavin Wins Lady Byng Memorial Trophy
The NHL has announced that Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Jaccob Slavin is the 2024 Lady Byng Memorial Trophy winner as the “Player adjudged to have exhibited the best type of sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct combined with a high standard of playing ability.” The other two finalists for the award were Vancouver Canucks forward Elias Pettersson and Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews.
Slavin became only the fourth NHL defenseman in history to win the award back in 2021 and is just the second NHL defenseman to win the honor more than once. Red Kelly is the only defenseman other than Slavin to win the award more than once and was a four-time award Lady Byng Memorial Trophy winner.
The 30-year-old Slavin had another solid regular season averaging nearly 21 minutes of ice time while dressing in 81 games for Carolina. Offensively, he was strong once again, tallying six goals and 31 assists while seeing minimal power play time. Slavin spent less than 25 minutes on Carolina’s man advantage this season and recorded 34 of his 37 points at even strength. The Denver, Colorado native remained a key cog in the Hurricanes’ penalty kill that was tops in the NHL with an 86.4% success rate. Slavin averaged 2:38 on the penalty kill per game and finished in the top 10 in takeaways.
Slavin is one of just two Hurricanes players ever to win the Lady Byng Memorial Trophy and the only one to be nominated for the award on more than one occasion. He is one year away from unrestricted free agency and will be eligible for a contract extension on July 1st.
West Notes: Tanev, Hakanpaa, Oilers, Kylington
The Dallas Stars didn’t have any positive updates today, with head coach Pete DeBoer sharing that Chris Tanev will see doctors and “go from there”, while Jani Hakanpaa likely won’t be available for Game 5, per NHL.com’s Mike Heika (Twitter link). Tanev left Game 4 midway through the second period, after suffering a lower-body injury while blocking a shot from Evander Kane. Tanev has played in all 17 of Dallas’ playoff games and totaled a league-leading 68 blocked shots. He also leads Dallas defensemen in hits, with 26. Meanwhile, Hakanpaa will miss a 31st-straight game should he miss Game 5.
Tanev would be a major absence for the Stars, who currently carry Nils Lundkvist, Derrick Pouliot, or prospect Lian Bichsel as their extra defenders. Lundkvist has appeared in 12 postseason games this Spring, recording one assist and averaging just 4:27 in ice time each game. Pouliot could offer a more stout veteran presence, though he’s only appeared in 22 NHL games over the last three seasons combined. Pouliot spent the majority of this season with the AHL’s Texas Stars, recording nine goals and 46 points across 67 games. Regardless of the fill-in, Tanev’s absence will likely mean more ice time for the team’s top pair of Esa Lindell and Miro Heiskanen. The pair are already averaging 25 and 28 minutes of ice time respectively. Heiskanen has managed six goals and 16 points in 17 postseason games, while Lindell has posted three goals and five points.
Other notes from around the league:
- The Edmonton Oilers have hired Kalle Larsson as their ‘Senior Director of Player Development’. He will be responsible for overseeing and managing the development of Oilers’ prospects. Larsson moves to the NHL after spending 11 years with the USHL’s Dubuque Fighting Saints, where he served as both general manager and President of Hockey Operations at various points. Larson built Dubuque into one of the league’s most consistently successful lineups, including supporting them to a championship appearance this season – though Dubuque lost to the nearly flawless Fargo Force, who finished the regular season with just 10 regulation losses. Larsson will now move into the NHL, once again focused on developing young players into playoff-winning talents.
- The Calgary Flames are reportedly preparing an offer for defenseman Oliver Kylington, shares David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period. Kylington was a finalist for the Bill Masterton Trophy this season, after taking 18 months away from the team for personal reasons. That absence included missing the entirety of the 2022-23 campaign. Kylington totaled 33 games with Calgary this season, posting eight points, 12 penalty minutes, and a -6. He’s likely due for a cheap deal and will look to resolidify his spot on the team’s daily lineup next season.