Snapshots: Ventura, Eklund, Canadiens
The Buffalo Sabres are adding another talented executive to the front office, as Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports that they will hire Sam Ventura as VP of hockey strategy and research. Ventura will be leaving his position with the Pittsburgh Penguins and rejoining former colleague Jason Karmanos, who was hired by the Sabres earlier this year.
As Greg Wyshynski of ESPN points out, Ventura comes from the hockey analytics world and has long been considered as a candidate for a future GM position in the NHL. For now, he’ll join a Sabres organization that has struggled to find any success in recent years, last making the playoffs in 2011.
- William Eklund, who continues to creep up draft boards, has been announced as the winner of the E.J. McGuire Award of Excellence by the NHL. The award is given out by NHL Central Scouting to “the candidate who best exemplifies commitment to excellence through strength of character, competitiveness and athleticism” in the upcoming draft class. Eklund is ranked as the top international skater even after a tumultuous 2020-21 campaign that included an emergency appendectomy, a positive COVID-19 test and a pre-tournament injury that kept him out of the World Championship.
- The Montreal Canadiens will make several lineup changes as they try to stave off elimination in the Stanley Cup Finals. Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Erik Gustafsson, and Jon Merrill will all be scratched in favor of Jake Evans, Alexander Romanov, and Brett Kulak for tonight’s game four. When asked by Wyshynski why Tomas Tatar hasn’t made an appearance during the season, Canadiens head coach Dominique Ducharme explained that it is “just a matter of combinations and playing at that time of year.” Tatar is an unrestricted free agent this summer.
Sergei Mozyakin Announces Retirement
One of the greatest players to never try his hand at the NHL is hanging up his skates. Sergei Mozyakin, among the most decorated Russian players of all time, has retired at the age of 40.
Name an award in the KHL, personal or team-based, and Mozyakin has likely won it. The legendary forward is the league’s all-time leader in goals, points and games played, has two Gagarin Cup championships, and has been named league MVP four times. He has Olympic gold, World Championship gold and several other medals on the international stage, sometimes serving as captain of the Russian team.
In fact, it is not quite accurate that he never tried to play in North America. Selected 58th overall in the 1998 CHL Import Draft, Mozyakin left his club team in Russia and was going to follow the same junior route many other talented international players did, playing in Canada. After just four games with the Val-d’Or Foreurs though, a contract dispute landed him back in Russia, never to leave again. He registered one assist for the Foreurs, his only point while playing for a North American club.
Somewhat hilariously, Mozyakin’s NHL draft rights were still owned by the Columbus Blue Jackets, who selected him 263rd overall in 2002. Because the KHL and NHL do not have a transfer agreement, those rights were carried indefinitely.
In 842 combined regular season and playoff games in the KHL, Mozyakin scored 419 goals and 928 points. He has served as captain for Metallurg Magnitogorsk for nearly a decade and had 21 points in 38 games this season. Even though his regular season totals were depressed, the old Mozyakin showed up one last time in the postseason, scoring 10 points in 11 games.
It’s not clear if Mozyakin ever would have found success in the NHL, but perhaps the decision to stay in Russia was the right one anyway. He will now go into retirement as one of the greatest to ever play in that league.
Oscar Dansk Signs in KHL
The Vegas Golden Knights made it clear recently that Oscar Dansk wouldn’t be returning to the organization in 2021-22, but it wasn’t immediately apparent where he would be going. That question is now answered, with Dansk signing a two-year contract with Spartak Moscow of the KHL.
Now 27, Dansk was an unrestricted free agent, but still didn’t have much NHL experience to leverage in negotiations. Despite being selected 31st overall in 2012 by the Columbus Blue Jackets, he failed to ever play a game for them at the NHL level. After some middling minor league numbers and a two-year return to Sweden, he signed with the Golden Knights in 2017 as one of their first non-expansion additions. He would sign two more contracts with the Golden Knights over the last few seasons, but managed just six NHL appearances.
There is still enough upside left in Dansk that he could potentially return after showcasing his skills overseas, but this very well could be the end of his NHL career. In his six appearances, he went 4-1 with a .906 save percentage.
Matiss Kivlenieks Passes Away At 24
The hockey world is in mourning today, as a member of the NHL fraternity has passed away far too early. Columbus Blue Jackets netminder Matiss Kivlenieks passed away last night. Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press reports that an autopsy revealed that Kivlenieks died of chest trauma due to a fireworks mortar blast, not the head injury that was originally reported. He was 24.
Blue Jackets president of hockey operations John Davidson released a statement:
We are shocked and saddened by the loss of Matiss Kivlenieks, and we extend our deepest sympathies to his mother, Astrida, his family and friends during this devastating time. Kivi was an outstanding young man who greeted every day and everyone with a smile and the impact he had during his four years with our organization will not be forgotten.
Kivlenieks, an undrafted goaltender from Latvia, played in six games for the Blue Jackets over the past two years, posting an .899 save percentage and a 2-2-2 record. He reached a new level of renown when he earned a shutout against Team Canada at the recent World Championships, the first time Latvia had ever defeated the hockey powerhouse at the event.
The staff here at PHR joins in the rest of the hockey community, sending our condolences to the Kivlenieks family.
An earlier version of this story included comments from Novi, Michigan police that indicated Kivlenieks died because of a head injury from a fall while exiting a hot tub.
Five Key Stories: 6/28/21 – 7/4/21
The first week of July is usually a busy one around the NHL but despite free agency not opening up late in the month, there was still plenty of activity around the league. The biggest news is highlighted in our key stories.
Coaching Carousel Ends: The final two head coaching vacancies have been filled. One of them saw no change at all made as the Sabres removed the interim tag from Don Granato, signing him to a three-year deal as their head coach. Granato took over during the season when Ralph Krueger was let go and led Buffalo to a 9-16-3 record but the team did make some improvements down the stretch. Meanwhile, Arizona found their new bench boss with the hiring of Andre Tourigny who also received a three-year deal. This will be Tourigny’s first time as an NHL head coach although he has NHL experience as an assistant with Colorado and Ottawa. This season, he was supposed to be the head coach for OHL Ottawa but that league never played. He did, however, coach Canada at the World Juniors and served as an assistant at the World Championships in the spring.
One Veteran Set To Return, Another Set To Leave? The Blackhawks got some good news when team captain Jonathan Toews announced that he has resumed skating in preparation for returning next season. The center missed all of 2020-21 with what he revealed to be Chronic Immune Response Syndrome and assuming he is able to return, he will give Chicago a huge boost down the middle. However, while it appears he’ll be back, one of his long-time teammates will be on the move as it was revealed that the Blackhawks and Duncan Keith are working together on a trade that would see the veteran go to either Western Canada or the Pacific Northwest to allow him to be closer to his son. Keith has been a fixture in Chicago’s lineup for 16 seasons, helping lead the Blackhawks to three Stanley Cups along the way.
Nugent-Hopkins Sticks Around: One of the top forwards in the upcoming UFA class is off the market before he had an opportunity to even get there as the Oilers and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins agreed to an eight-year, $41MM contract. The contract actually represents a small decrease in his cost as his previous AAV was $6MM but in return for that dip, he gets a max-term contract and a no-move clause. The 28-year-old was the first overall pick back in 2011 and has been a fixture in Edmonton’s lineup ever since, notching 478 points in 656 games. He sits 381 games behind Kevin Lowe for the franchise lead in that department and if he stays with the team for the duration of the deal, he should be able to set the new record. Nugent-Hopkins has been a center for most of his career although he has primarily played on the wing in recent years in an effort to give him a bigger offensive role and load up their top six. That positional flexibility is certain to come in handy over the next eight years.
Kings Add A Veteran: After the season ended, some of the Kings’ veteran core called for some win-now additions to try to get them back into playoff contention while taking advantage of some of their good youngsters being on team-friendly contracts. GM Rob Blake did just that with the acquisition of winger Viktor Arvidsson from Nashville in exchange for a 2021 second-round pick and a 2022 third-round selection. The 28-year-old is coming off a pair of down seasons offensively but before that, he had three straight years with 29 or more goals and should give Los Angeles a much-needed boost in their top six. Meanwhile, Nashville adds some salary cap flexibility and gets something for a player who GM David Poile acknowledged would have been left unprotected in expansion had they not found a taker for Arvidsson.
One Down, Two To Go: Minnesota took care of one of their prominent restricted free agents with the signing of center Joel Eriksson Ek to an eight-year, $42MM contract. The 24-year-old had a career year offensively this season with 19 goals and 30 points in 56 games while playing his usual sound defensive game as well. The $5.25MM AAV may seem a little high but the deal buys out six years of UFA eligibility and guarantees that the Wild have an impact center for the foreseeable future. Now, GM Bill Guerin will turn his focus to wingers Kirill Kaprizov and Kevin Fiala, a pair of players that are also in line for notable raises.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Snapshots: Avalanche Free Agents, Blue Jackets, Golden Knights
The Avalanche haven’t gotten into substantive contract discussions with pending UFAs Gabriel Landeskog and Philipp Grubauer, reports Peter Baugh of The Athletic (subscription link). Landeskog, Colorado’s captain, has spent the last ten years with the Avs and will be hitting the open market for the first time. He’s believed to be seeking a long-term contract and an eight-year pact would basically lock him up for the rest of his career. However, they have to be mindful of the fact that Nathan MacKinnon is two years away from needing a substantial raise and Cale Makar will get one this summer as a restricted free agent. If Landeskog wants top dollar, they may not be able to afford it.
As for Grubauer, he could have a shot at doubling the $3.33MM AAV he had on his last contract which could also price him out of what the Avalanche can afford. But they also can’t afford to go into next season with Pavel Francouz – who didn’t play at all in 2020-21 – as the number one. Whether it’s Grubauer or someone else, they’ll need to set aside some money for goaltending.
Elsewhere around the league:
- The Blue Jackets are looking into adding an advisor to their coaching staff, relays Aaron Portzline of The Athletic (subscription link). No one on their staff has ever served as a head coach at the NHL level so bringing in someone in a mentorship type of role would make sense. Portzline suggests veteran bench boss Jacques Martin could be a viable candidate for such a position and that the 68-year-old is interested in a position like that.
- What do the Golden Knights need to add this offseason? Team owner Bill Foley told David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal that power play help will be a priority this summer. They were held without a power play goal in 15 opportunities in their semifinal loss to Montreal which contributed to a 9.5% success rate in the playoffs, the lowest among all postseason teams. Even during the regular season, they were below the league average with the man advantage. While Vegas has built impressive depth up front, bringing in someone to help boost their power play would certainly give them a big lift offensively.
Offseason Checklist: Minnesota Wild
The offseason is in full flight with only two teams still standing. We continue our series which examines what those eliminated teams need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Minnesota.
Back in 2019-20, Minnesota went on a late run under then-interim head coach Dean Evason to help secure them a spot in the expanded playoffs. They went a step further this year, finishing a solid third in the West Division and gave Vegas a good run in the first round, ultimately falling in seven games. GM Bill Guerin has a decent core to work with but a few things need to be addressed for them to try to move up in the Western Conference next season.
Resolve The Parise Situation
One of the key storylines for them down the stretch was the usage of veteran winger Zach Parise. More specifically, the storyline was that he was a frequent healthy scratch. Through last season, the 36-year-old was still putting up numbers worthy of a spot on Minnesota’s second line and while his contract was an overpayment, he was still one of their stronger contributors.
That changed in 2020-21. Under Evason, Parise’s role and ice time steadily dropped to the point where he was seeing fourth line ice time late in the year when he was in the lineup. That was a tough pill to swallow for someone who has been a fixture in their lineup for nearly a decade.
There are still four years remaining on his contract with an AAV of just over $7.5MM. If he has indeed fallen that far down the depth chart, him spending the next four years as the designated scratch or a fourth liner isn’t a viable solution. Finding another spot for him would be beneficial for both teams but it’s not as simple as simply buying him out. The front-loaded nature of the contract makes a buyout quite punitive to the point where the post-buyout AAV in some of the years is just under $7.5MM.
Accordingly, this will need to be a trade if they want to move him. While Parise does have a no-move clause, it wouldn’t be surprising if he was willing to waive it to get an opportunity for some playing time. While there aren’t going to be teams wanting to absorb the contract outright, there should be some swaps of bad contracts this summer and there may be a fit there. Failing that, a lower-budget team might be okay with taking on the lower-priced years of the deal with the right incentive(s) attached.
Of course, there is another element that has to be considered that isn’t in effect for most other bad contracts and that’s salary cap recapture. Parise – along with teammate Ryan Suter – are on now-illegal deals with how much money was paid out up front. There’s a significant penalty if Parise retires early and if he’s not on the roster, there isn’t the ability to figure out some sort of injury to put him on LTIR and convince him to not file his papers.
It’s not going to be an easy fix and there are problems with pretty much every scenario. Either Parise needs to accept his reduced role or Guerin will need to be very careful in finding a new home for him, ideally with a side agreement that says Parise plays out his contract somewhere else. Usually, managing a situation with an overpaid veteran isn’t overly difficult but it could be here as a result.
Re-Sign Key RFAs
Guerin has already taken care of one key restricted free agent with the recent eight-year, $42MM extension that was given to center Joel Eriksson Ek. However, there are still two more to go.
Kirill Kaprizov sits on top of this list; after a year and a half off from the seemingly annual debate on will he or won’t he sign that went on for years, Kaprizov’s contract situation is once again at the forefront. This isn’t a case of Minnesota not wanting to pay up or Kaprizov looking to go back home as recent suggestions to that effect feel like more of a tactic than a real option. The Wild want to work out a max-term contract that will lock up the 24-year-old through the prime of his career. However, this isn’t a great financial climate for Kaprizov to agree to such an arrangement. Accordingly, he wants something shorter term that will allow him to cash in once the salary cap goes up. He is three years away from UFA eligibility and merely handing him a two-year bridge deal would easily open up the door for him to elect arbitration after that and walk to free agency at 27. That’s not something Minnesota wants to do. Finding a compromise that both sides are content with will be difficult which is why these talks could drag out for a while.
Another winger is also in need of a new deal in Kevin Fiala. His two full seasons with the Wild have yielded his best two statistical years in terms of goals, assists, and points per game which has him in great shape heading into his first time with arbitration eligibility. He’s only two years away from hitting the open market so there is a risk in a short-term deal here as well. Unfortunately, they only have $16MM in cap space so signing Fiala and Kaprizov to contracts that buy out some UFA years will be difficult. Even if it’s a short-term contract, Fiala will be earning a significant raise on the $3MM AAV he had on his most recent contract.
Add Center Help
Yes, this perpetual need still exists. Guerin is undoubtedly thrilled that Eriksson Ek has emerged as a legitimate top-six center which gives them one to work; that’s better than what it had been before. But there is still a lot of work to be done at this position.
Last offseason, Minnesota brought in three players to try to help down the middle in Nick Bonino, Nick Bjugstad, and Marcus Johansson. None of them really panned out. Bonino is better served as a bottom-six option, Bjugstad was only able to hold down a limited role, and Johansson wound up moving back to the wing and still managed only 14 points in 36 games. All are set to hit the open market so there will be plenty of work to do again as those players move on.
Victor Rask had a bounce-back season but is still overpaid at $4MM and could be a buyout candidate but if he comes back, he can probably handle the fourth line. Ryan Hartman spent some time down the middle but could be a stopgap option. But neither of these will fill the vacancy in the top six. Whether it’s another short-term fix or finding a way to move out salary to add a longer-term piece, at least one impact addition needs to be made at center.
Don’t Lose Dumba For Nothing
Another seemingly annual tradition as of late has been the trade speculation surrounding defenseman Mathew Dumba. He hasn’t hidden his desire to stay with the Wild but with Suter, Jared Spurgeon, and Jonas Brodin all locked up long-term and holding no-move clauses, it continues to be Dumba that’s viewed as the potential odd man out.
That speculation will pick up in recent weeks due to expansion. Those same no-move clauses lock in the three blueliners that Minnesota will protect from Seattle and they’re not in a spot where they can only protect four forwards to free up an extra spot for a defenseman. That makes Dumba the one in jeopardy of being selected – he’d be the obvious pick if it came to that – and losing him for nothing to the Kraken is far from ideal.
Perhaps he can be dangled to add help down the middle. Maybe it’s a side deal worked out with Seattle GM Ron Francis to pick someone else with Guerin sending an incentive to the Kraken to stay away from Dumba though that would need to be something of significance. Either way, while Dumba may not be a luxury they can afford anymore, they certainly can’t afford to lose him for nothing.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Minor Transactions: 07/04/21
The Stanley Cup could be awarded as early as tomorrow, meaning the true NHL offseason is just around the corner. Other leagues around the world are already there though, and while those transactions create fewer headlines, we’ll keep track of all the notable ones right here.
- The Laval Rocket have signed Charles-David Beaudoin to a two-way AHL contract, bringing him back from Austria where he spent the 2020-21 season. Beaudoin, 27, was once the captain of his hometown Drummondville Voltigeurs, but never has reached the NHL during his professional career In 2018-19 he spent the entire season with the Manitoba Moose of the AHL, recording seven points in 57 games.
- Another former CHL captain, Jesse Graham, who spent the 2018-19 season with the Utica Comets, has signed a new contract with the Augsburger Panther of the DEL. Graham played for KalPa in the Finnish Liiga last season, racking up 26 points in 53 games from the back end. The 27-year-old was a sixth-round pick of the New York Islanders in 2012, but never played a game in the NHL.
- Just a few years ago Matt Carey was putting up a 21-goal season for the Hartford Wolf Pack, but the 29-year-old forward is going to continue his European career next season. He’s signed a new contract with Lowen Frankfurt in the German second tier, after playing for Dusseldorf last season.
Free Agent Focus: Florida Panthers
Free agency is now just under a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. No one would have expected that one of the most interesting UFA in Florida would be a goalie, but after more struggles from their expensive starter, that’s exactly what has happened.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Sam Bennett – The Panthers’ big trade deadline addition fit in perfectly after moving to the east coast. Bennett scored more goals and points in 10 games for the Panthers than he did in 38 for the Calgary Flames, and then was once again added his strong postseason performance. The 25-year-old now has 12 goals and 24 points in 35 career playoff games, scoring at a near 30-goal pace despite never totaling more than 18 in a single regular season. One reason for the added point production in Florida? Bennett saw his average ice time increase by nearly five minutes per night as he plugged into the top-six immediately. There’s no doubt he will be looking for a raise on the $2.55MM cap hit he has carried for the last two seasons, but the Panthers are actually in an interesting position. Bennett’s counting stats were so poor in Calgary—he averaged just 25 points over his first five seasons—that his arbitration case wouldn’t be very strong. If Florida wanted to, they could go that route and try to squeeze as much excess value as they can on a short-term deal.
D – Gustav Forsling – Forsling played in 122 games for the Chicago Blackhawks between 2016-2019, recording just 27 points. He averaged just over 17 minutes a game during those years, moving in and out of the lineup as a depth option. Then in 2019-20 he played the entire season in the minor leagues, suiting up 57 times for the Charlotte Checkers. Why is he an important RFA? Because there was a real breakout this season for the 25-year-old defenseman, with 17 points in 43 games and an average TOI of nearly 20 minutes. In fact in the playoffs, Forsling averaged 21:29 in six games against the Tampa Bay Lightning, scoring a goal and two points in the process. With veteran defenders being phased in Florida, there will be a chance for Forsling to establish himself as a core piece over the next few seasons. A multi-year contract could be in order, to provide some security for player and team.
Other RFAs: F Anthony Duclair, F Lucas Wallmark, F Juho Lammikko, F Patrick Bajkov, F Brad Morrisson, D Noah Juulsen, D Jake Massie, D Lucas Carlsson, D Chase Priskie, D Alec Rauhauser, G Sam Montembeault, G Ryan Bednard
Key Unrestricted Free Agents:
F Alexander Wennberg – Speaking of having a career resurrected in Sunrise, Wennberg experienced an explosion in goal scoring in his first year for the Panthers. After racking up just 40 goals in 415 games for the Columbus Blue Jackets, the playmaking center scored 17 times in 56 games this season for Florida. No, his insane 20% shooting percentage won’t continue, but Wennberg and the Panthers were a perfect fit this season. GM Bill Zito obviously knows him very well from their time together in Columbus and an extension seems likely here if a reasonable number can be found. Still just 26, Wennberg’s representatives are surely patting themselves on the back for taking the one-year “rebound” deal in Florida before setting their sights on something longer this time around.
D Brandon Montour – The career shifts continued with Montour, who arrived in Florida through a trade with the Buffalo Sabres and immediately found more success when insulated by better teammates. It’s hard to know what his ceiling is at this point, given how drastically his performance has varied throughout the first few years of his career, but make no mistake there are many characteristics of Montour’s game that will be appealing to NHL teams this summer. He just turned 27, he’s right-handed, and has shown an ability to drive play and contribute to the powerplay in the past. Though he had just four points in 12 games with the Panthers, Montour’s possession numbers rebounded and he looked a lot closer to the player that racked up multiple 30+ point seasons in the past. Unfortunately, some of the downsides appeared again in the playoffs, when Montour was outmatched in his own end and saw his minutes reduced dramatically in several games. Is he a reliable top-four option moving forward? That certainly is still to be seen.
G Chris Driedger – The Panthers had two starting-level goaltenders on their team at the end of this season, and neither one was Sergei Bobrovsky. Driedger just simply outperformed Bobrovsky at every turn, racking up a .927 save percentage in 23 appearances, his second straight year of strong goaltending in backup/tandem role. That’s going to generate a lot of interest on the open market, given the fact that he’s just 27 and still likely won’t command a huge salary after playing the last two years on a two-way deal. There’s no guarantee that Driedger can continue to perform at this level on an increased workload (see: Scott Darling), but with Spencer Knight ready to contribute, it’s going to be near-impossible for the Panthers to bring the free agent goaltender back unless they somehow rid themselves of Bobrovsky’s $10MM cap hit.
Other UFAs: F Nikita Gusev, F Scott Wilson, D Tommy Cross, D Ethan Prow, D Brady Keeper, G Phillippe Desrosiers
Projected Cap Space
The Panthers have a lot of work to do and not that much cap space to do it. The team currently sits at just over $13.1MM of projected space, but if they were to part ways with veteran players like Keith Yandle or Anton Stralman, they could open up some extra room. Perhaps more important to note is the situation for next year, when Aleksander Barkov is scheduled for unrestricted free agency. The Panthers have been benefiting from his extremely undervalued $5.9MM cap hit the last several years but will have to give him a hefty raise to keep him in Florida. The open market awaits Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar just two years from now, meaning there will have to be a full plan in place by Zito and company this summer before they sign any long-term deals.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Expansion Primer: Dallas Stars
Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.
Presumably by design, the Dallas Stars were able to protect all of their core players in the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft and have done so again this year. Last time, Vegas selected capable center Cody Eakin, but it was a relatively painless loss for the team. Ironically, it could a very similar result this time around as Seattle takes their pick. The Kraken do have a couple other intriguing options, but the Stars should again escape somewhat unscathed.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Jamie Benn (NMC), Alexander Radulov (NMC), Tyler Seguin (NMC), Nicholas Caamano, Blake Comeau, Jason Dickinson, Radek Faksa, Denis Gurianov, Roope Hintz, Tanner Kero, Joel L’Esperance, Adam Mascherin, Joe Pavelski
Defense:
Ben Gleason, Joel Hanley, Miro Heiskanen, Julius Honka, John Klingberg, Esa Lindell, Andrej Sekera
Goalies:
Ben Bishop (NMC), Anton Khudobin, Colton Point
Notable Unrestricted Free Agents
F Andrew Cogliano, D Jamie Oleksiak, D Sami Vatanen
Notable Exemptions
F Mavrik Bourque, F Ty Dellandrea, D Thomas Harley, F Joel Kiviranta, G Jake Oettinger, F Jason Robertson, F Riley Tufte
Key Decisions
The Stars really have not left much up to the imagination when it comes to the Expansion Draft. In 2017, they protected Benn, Faksa, Seguin, Klingberg, Lindell, and Bishop and there is no reason to believe that all of those core players won’t be protected again. In fact, No-Movement Clauses ensure that Benn, Seguin, and Bishop, as well as Radulov, must be protected. Klingberg and Lindell remain reliable top-four defensemen and Faksa is a strong defensive center who just signed a long-term extension last off-season.
There also isn’t much competition for spots to force any of these players out of the protection slots they owned four years ago. With three forwards and a defensemen still able to be protected, there is plenty of flexibility. On the back end, elite young Heiskanen is the obvious choice to join Klingberg and Lindell, which only leaves free agent Oleksiak and 34-year-old veteran Sekera as exposed players with any reasonable value. Up front, top scorer Pavelski and young top-six forwards Hintz and Gurianov, who signed new deals alongside Faksa last summer, seem almost certain to be protected to complete the protection group.
Could there be a surprise selection? Unlikely, but if so it will come at forward. Dallas may be thinking that Pavelski’s age and contract could make him expendable in favor of a longer-term investment. The 36-year-old was phenomenal in 2020-21, but entering the final year of his contract and at a price tag of $7MM, Pavelski is an expiring asset in more way than one and if selected by Seattle his cap space could come in handy this off-season. With that said, the Stars will have a hard time replacing Pavelski’s production for next season with any potential off-season addition. As they look to get back to the postseason, Pavelski would absolutely come in handy. Maybe they are instead wary of Faksa’s declining offense, especially on a long-term deal. If they feel that there is another young forward on the roster who could be a better future piece, they may not mind getting out from underneath his remaining four years. However, Faksa’s real value comes in his physicality, face-off ability, and other two-way strengths. The $3.25MM AAV on his contract is not a major issues given his continued assistance in those areas.
As improbable as it may be that Pavelski or Faksa are not protected, the next question would be who might take their place. Seemingly the only candidate would be 25-year-old forward Dickinson, a versatile player whose role with the Stars has been ever-increasing over the past five years. However, Dickinson is not an irreplaceable asset, especially compared to Pavelski or Faksa. Dickinson himself helped to replace a similar player in Eakin, who Dallas allowed to be selected in the last round of expansion. History could repeat itself this year. Yet, Dickinson is also a restricted free agent, meaning the Kraken would have to value him enough to make him one of their maximum ten non-termed players selected in the Expansion Draft.
Projected Protection List
F Jamie Benn (NMC)
F Radek Faksa
F Denis Gurianov
F Roope Hintz
F Joe Pavelski
F Alexander Radulov (NMC)
F Tyler Seguin (NMC)
D Miro Heiskanen
D John Klingberg
D Esa Lindell
G Ben Bishop (NMC)
Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist
When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined. Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined. In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.
Forwards (2): Blake Comeau, Tanner Kero
Defensemen (2): Joel Hanley, Andrej Sekera
GM Jim Nill has telegraphed his expansion moves going all the way back to October. In less than a week’s time early that month, the Stars extended aging veterans Sekera and Khudobin knowing full well that they would meet Expansion Draft exposure requirements at positions where, at the time, they didn’t have any other options. Nill did not plan ahead the same way at forward and at the end of this regular season the team did not have any players to meet the exposure quota. However, he took care of that quickly by re-signing two impending unrestricted free agents over the past two months in Kero and Comeau, both of whom just needed a new deal to meet the requirements for exposure, but neither of whom were key players this season and signed affordable extensions.
Khudobin’s extension may have had additional ulterior motives. Whereas Comeau, Kero, and Sekera are not exactly attractive options for the Seattle Kraken, Khudobin is. An experienced netminder who has been one of the best backups in the NHL for much of his career and was Dallas’ starter this season in place of the injured Bishop, Khudobin would be a nice pickup for Seattle as either a member of their inaugural roster or as a valuable trade chip. Yet, Dallas has Bishop returning to health and top prospect Oettinger ready to share the net. The Kraken selecting Khudobin would arguably be doing the Stars a favor.
While Khudobin has long been the expected target of Seattle, the aforementioned Dickinson could be a candidate for selection. Young players Caamano, Mascherin, or Gleason could be other outside-the-box options. The Kraken may also be interested in striking a deal with UFA Oleksiak, who many expect to re-sign with Dallas, but otherwise would be one of the better defensemen on the open market this off-season. Oleksiak – assuming the Stars have a handshake extension in place – would be the biggest potential loss for the team, but they know the risks of leaving him unsigned. No Seattle pick should come as surprise or sting too much for Dallas, which is exactly how Nill planned it.